2006年9月1日全球金融市场周报 新兴市场

　　Global Emerging Markets环球新兴市场

　　Emerging equities had a mixed week, with some stock markets bucking the downward trend of their developed counterparts, and others succumbing to the negative movement. Brazil's BOVESPA underperformed, shedding 4.4%, as several economists downgraded their 2006 and 2007 growth forecasts for the country. Mexico's IPC also fell (by 0.3%) amid more radical rhetoric from opposition candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador, over what he would do if Felipe Calderon, a conservative candidate, was announced president. In contrast, Argentina's MERVAL resisted the negative tone and recorded a gain of 1.2%. News that the country's jobless rate had fallen from 11.4% to 10.4% and that industrial production had grown 8.8% year-on-year in July cheered investors.

　　In emerging Europe, reports that Russia had paid off the last of its debt (USD 21.6 billion) to the Paris Club saw the RTS surge 2.9%. The fact that the country has paid off its debt early illustrates how much revenue Russia is earning from oil and means that the nation has saved USD 7.7 billion in interest rate payments which it can spend on infrastructure. Hungary's BUX also managed to finish up on the week (by 2.1%), but Turkey's ISE National 100 fell 1.4% as consumer confidence in the country plummeted to its lowest level since December 2003. Poland's WIG and the Czech PX 50 also fared poorly, falling 1.4% and 0.2% respectively.

　　新兴股市上周表现参差，部分股市一反成熟市场向下走势而上扬，其它股市则表现失利。巴西2006和2007两年的增长预测被调低，拖累当地股市大跌4.4%。

墨西哥反对派候选人奥布拉多尔表示，若保守派候选人卡德隆宣布就任总统，即会采取激烈行动，墨国股市亦告下挫(跌0.3%)。反之，阿根廷股市未受负面气氛影响，上升1.2%。该国失业率由11.4%下降至10.4%，工业生产又较去年同期增长8.8%，都令投资者鼓舞。

　　新兴欧洲方面，有报导指俄罗斯已向巴黎会所偿还最后一笔债务(216亿美元)，刺激俄股急升2.9%。俄罗斯提早清偿债务，说明了该国从石油赚得的收入何其丰厚，同时亦意味所省回的77亿美元利息，可用作拓展基建。匈牙利股市亦高收(升2.1%)，土耳其股市则因消费信心急跌至2003年12月以来最低水平而跌1.4%。波兰及捷克股市同时表现不济，分别跌1.4%和0.2%。

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