2006年9月1日全球金融市场周报 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　The TOPIX fell 1.3% and Nikkei fell 1.0% as investors took profits on blue chips after the market hit a three-month high earlier last week. Technology stocks fared poorly, prompted by weakness in the US, a downgrade to Sony and news that the electronics bellwether had to recall millions of laptop batteries. Product recalls also hit the autos sector as Toyota announced that it would be delaying its latest product launch due to quality issues and a stream of product withdrawals. On the new, 2005-based consumption basket, nationwide core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, was much weaker than expected, up only 0.2% YoY in July. The downside surprise comes from the magnitude of the pull down by the base year change, which proved 0.4% point compared to the expected 0.2-0.3%. In addition, the monthly change in prices was pulled down by a substantial decline in apparel prices during the summer sales season, despite the push up by the tax hike in tobacco prices. In the old basis, July core CPI inflation remained at the same level of 0.6% in June.

　　METI's all-sector activity index edged up 0.1% MoM in June after the revised 0.1% MoM drop (from -0.2%) in May. As already known, the weakness in tertiary sector activity was totally offset by the strong manufacturing output, which is the opposite pattern from the previous month. Construction activity declined 1.4% MoM after the 0.2% decline in May, giving a slight drag to overall activity. The BoJ's real trade index, which is defined as quality-adjusted, rose to 207.3 in July from June's 188.5, topping the historical high level of 198.7 recorded in May. This was caused by the combination of pick up in real exports (the current index level is 2.2% higher than 2Q average) and decline in real imports (the current index level is 2.0% lower than 2Q average) Based on strong domestic demand and low inventories, we see industrial production will remain solid in coming months, and reacceleration in real exports, which is consistent with the surge in July PMI export orders and still-solid foreign machinery orders, could reinforce it. However, it will take several months to confirm that the acceleration in July reflects the underlying trend in real exports.

　　上周初日股创三个月新高后，有投资者将蓝筹股吐现获利，东京第一市场指数收市跌1.3%，日经指数则跌1.0%。美股偏软、新力(Sony)评级下调，并须回收数百万枚手提电脑电池，导致科技股表现不济。汽车股亦受产品回收问题拖累，丰田(Toyota)宣布因质素问题以及产品回收事故频生而押后推出新产品。当局新订以2005年为基数、不计新鲜食品的全国核心消费物价远较预期疲弱，7月份与去年同期比较的升幅只有0.2%。更改基准年份令指数下调多达0.4%，比预期的0.2至0.3%严重。此外，尽管当局增收烟草税，但由于夏季减价期间成衣价格大幅下降，拖低了每月物价变动。若按旧基准计算，7月份核心消费物价指数通胀仍为0.6%，与6月份相同。经济产业省的所有范畴活动指数5月份经修订下跌0.1%(原先为-0.2%)，6月份则升0.1%。跟上月模式迥然不同，第三产业活动的弱势已被强劲制造业产出抵销。建造业则继5月份下降0.2%后，6月份再跌1.4%，对整体活动造成轻微拖累。

　　日本央行实质贸易指数由6月份的188.5上升至7月份的207.3，超越5月份录得的历年高位198.7，原因是实质出口回升(现水平指数为2.2%，高于第二季的平均数)，而实质入口又见下跌(现水平指数为2.0%，较第二季平均数为低)。基于内需殷切而存货不多，未来数月的工业生产料将维持稳健。另外，实质出口增长重新加快，和7月份采购经理指数出口订单急升和外国机器订单维持稳定的情况吻合。虽然如此，有关7月份增长加速是否反映实质出口的基本趋势，仍需要数个月才能够确定。