2006年9月1日全球金融市场周报 美国

　　United States 美国

　　US equities went into retreat last week as heightened concerns over the state of the US economy, high oil prices and geopolitical tensions saw investors become increasingly jittery. As a result, the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, while the tech-laden NASDAQ Index declined 1.1%. Worries that the US economy is heading for a 'hard landing' came to a head last week, with evidence of a sharp slowdown in the housing market. News that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% (to their lowest level since January 2004) and that sales of new homes dropped 4.3% in July provided firm evidence that the housing market is slowing. Reports from homebuilder, Toll Brothers, that its fiscal third-quarter profits had dropped 19% added to the concerns. Although the data did ease fears over further rises in interest rates, the news coupled with reports that US durable goods orders had fallen 2.4%, saw some commentators even suggest that a recession could be on the way. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and a rise in oil prices also played a part in spooking investors. Oil prices reached USD 73 a barrel after the UN rejected Iran's offer to meet for peace talks in light of the fact that the Iranian government continued to refuse to halt its uranium enrichment programme. Worries that tropical storm, Ernesto, could reach the Gulf of Mexico and disrupt oil production also supported prices, while concerns that the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah could be broken added to investor jitters.

　　At the stock level, homebuilders and consumer stocks were the worst hit amid worries over a slowing housing market and possible US recession, while the transport sector was buffeted by a volatile week for Ford which saw the car giant announce that it is in talks with Renault-Nissan for a possible alliance, that it is cutting back production and that the Ford family could be taking the company private. The technology sector also had a difficult week, with Apple forced to recall 1.1 million laptop batteries in the US and ordered to pay USD 100 million to rival, Creative, over a patent dispute involving the iPod. A broker downgrade for eBay added to the gloom, although an upbeat outlook buoyed Advanced Micro Devices.

　　上周美股回落，有关美国经济状况、油价高企和地缘政治局势紧张的隐忧加剧，令投资者感到不安。道琼斯指数跌0.9%，偏重科技股的纳斯达克指数则跌1.1%。有关美国经济步向“硬着陆”的忧虑于上周纷纷涌现，房屋市场更有急剧放缓迹象。

二手房屋销售下降4.1%(至2004年1月以来最低水平)，7月份新房屋销售亦下跌4.3%，确实证明房屋市场正在放缓。房屋建筑公司Toll Brothers宣布其财年第三季溢利下降19%，令市场关注。尽管数据纾缓了进一步加息的忧虑，但有报告指美国耐用品订单下降2.4%，部分评论员甚至认为美国可能步向衰退。地缘政治局势持续紧张及油价上涨都令投资者担心不已。联合国拒绝与伊朗进行和谈，理由是伊朗政府一直拒绝暂停其提炼浓缩铀计划，促使油价升至73美元一桶。有关热带风暴欧内斯托可能吹至墨西哥湾，并导致石油生产中断的忧虑亦为油价带来支持。与此同时，以色列与真主党可能违反停火协议，令投资者忧心忡忡。

　　股份层面上，房屋市场放缓，美国经济又有衰退之虞，房屋建筑公司及消费股跌幅最大。运输股亦走势反复，福特汽车(Ford)宣布正与雷诺日产(Renault-Nissan)磋商结盟，并正在减产，而福特家族又可能将公司私有化。科技股亦举步维艰，苹果计算机(Apple)被逼于美国回收110万枚手提电脑电池，并须就涉及iPod的专利争议而向对手Creative 支付1亿美元赔偿。eBay被经纪行调低评级，令气氛雪上加霜，但Advanced Micro Devices获调高展望则刺激市场气氛。

 

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