2006年9月1日全球金融市场周报 欧洲

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European bourses had a challenging week, as investors were buffeted by concerns over the state of the US economy, rising oil prices and some disappointing economic data from the eurozone. In terms of the major markets, the French CAC 40 and UK's FTSE 100 suffered the largest falls, declining 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while the German DAX fell by a modest 0.1%. Concerns over a slowdown in the US coupled with some unfavourable data on the eurozone economy helped send equities into a downward spiral. Coming after such positive news in recent weeks, a sharp decline in the ZEW Index of German investor sentiment to a five-year low and a drop in the German IFO Index of business confidence raised concerns that growth is perhaps not as firm as expected in Europe's largest economy. A much larger than forecast 2.5% fall in eurozone industrial orders in July added to the general concerns over the eurozone economy, although it did raise hopes that the European Central Bank would pause in its interest rate tightening cycle. In contrast, however, confirmation that the UK economy had grown by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2006, raised concerns that the UK economy is still strong enough to withstand further interest rate rises from the Bank of England.

　　In corporate news, the tail end of the earnings season saw some mixed results. On the positive side, food giant Nestle reported a forecast beating 11% rise in first-half profits, Swiss watchmaker Swatch recorded 24% growth in profits and UK can maker, Rexam, surprised the market with strong earnings figures. However, BHP Billiton was hit by a smaller than expected rise in profits, while strikes at the mining giant's copper mine in Chile which forced its closure also weighed on the stock. Pest controller Rentokil Initial posted a disappointing forecast, while medical software maker, ISoft, had a volatile week as the company announced that it is facing a formal investigation into possible accounting irregularities. In the merger market, the major news was that Italian banking rivals, Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI, would begin talks at the end of the week over a possible merger between the two giants. A merger between Italy's second and third largest banks would create a banking group with a market capitalisation of EUR 55 billion, placing it in the top ten banks of Continental Europe.

　　美国经济状况备受关注、油价持续上涨、欧元区部分经济数据又未如理想，令欧洲股市上周表现失利。主要市场中，法国CAC 40指数和英国富时100指数跌势最剧，分别跌0.5%及0.4%，德国DAX指数则微跌0.1%。美国经济有放缓之虞，加上欧元区经济数据失利，拖累股市反复向下。德国ZEW投资意欲指数急跌至五年低位，德国IFO营商信心指数亦见下挫，扭转最近数周消息利好的趋势，亦令市场忧虑德国的增长也许不如预期稳定。欧元区7月份工业订单减少2.5%，跌幅远较预测严重，欧元区经济状况更堪忧虑，但有关情况又令市场憧憬欧洲央行会因而暂停加息。另一边厢，英国今年第二季经济录得0.8%增长，令人关注英国经济依然蓬勃，足以承受英伦银行进一步加息。

　　企业消息方面，业绩期尾声公司业绩好坏不一。利好消息方面，食品巨企雀巢(Nestle)公布上半年溢利上升11%，超越预测；瑞士手表制造商Swatch溢利增长24%；英国罐类容器制造商Rexam业绩彪炳亦令市场喜出望外。不过，BHP Billiton的溢利增长就逊于预期，该公司在智利的铜矿工潮导致停产，令股价更加受压。灭虫专家Rentokil Initial业绩预测令人失望，医疗软件制造商Isoft则走势反复，该公司宣布因可能涉及会计违规而面临正式调查。合并市场上的大事莫过于