2006年7月17日全球金融市场周报：环球新兴市场

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　In Latin America, trading was dominated by the Mexican presidential elections. Confirmation at the end of the week that the market's favoured candidate, the conservative Felipe Calderon, had won following a recount caused the market to surge. The IPC ended 3.6% higher. However, a possible legal challenge to the result from Calderon's left-wing rival, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, may help keep Mexican investors on edge over the summer. Elsewhere in the region, Brazil's BOVESPA fell 1.4% despite evidence of accelerating economic growth as data revealed that industrial output has risen more than expected in May.

　　In emerging Europe, Turkey's ISE National 100 rose 2.1% as June inflation data was better than expected, easing pressure on the Turkish central bank to raise interest rates further following two sharp increases in the last two months. Rising commodity prices helped boost Russia's RTS, which was up 3.7%, while in central Europe, Poland's WIG surged 5.5% higher and Hungary's BUX managed a 3.4% increase. In South Africa the JSE All Share ended the week 0.6% higher against a backdrop of conflicting economic news. Firstly, manufacturing output rose to an 11-month high in June, boosted by low interest rates and a revival in consumer demand. However, later in the week data showed that retail sales had slowed in April.

　　拉丁美洲市况备受

墨西哥总统大选牵制。上周末保守派候选人卡德隆(Felipe Calderon)在重新点票后确定当选，刺激大市急升，高收3.6%。不过，左派对手奥布拉多尔(Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador)可能提出法律挑战，或会令墨西哥股市于夏季期间气氛紧张。至于拉丁美洲其它市场，巴西数据反映5月份工业产出增幅超越预期，经济增长加速，但股市仍跌1.4%。

　　欧洲新兴市场上，土耳其股市升2.1%。6月份通胀数据较预期为佳，舒缓了土耳其继对上两个月两度大幅加息后进一步调高利率的压力。商品价格上涨，有助刺激俄罗斯股市升3.7%。中欧市场方面，波兰股市急升5.5%，匈牙利则升3.4%。南非经济消息好坏不一，股市依然上升0.6%。6月份当地制造业产出受低息与消费需求复苏刺激，升上11个月高位。但上周尾段数据却显示4月份零售市道有所放缓。

　　(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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