2006年7月17日全球金融市场周报：日本

　　Japan 日本

　　After 3 consecutive weeks of gains, Japanese markets drifted off with no clear direction. Turnover values were still on the light side, which seems to reflect a wait and see stance before the BoJ's decision on interest rates due on the 14 July. The Topix fell 0.9% despite the quarterly Tankan survey providing fresh evidence of an economic recovery. The survey showed growing business confidence and plans by companies to increase their capital spending and investment. The Topix is currently trading on 17x 3/07 and 15.5x 3/08 earnings estimates, which seems to adequately reflect the reduced appetite for risk and the lack of visibility to the mid-term global investment backdrop. A mixture of defensives and basic materials outperformed, the latter rebounding on the back of a strengthening oil price. Non-banks and consumer finance stocks fell sharply with news that an LDP subcommittee recommended to lower the maximum lending rate from the current 29.2% to 15-20%. This is not yet the final outcome and there will likely be many exemptions, if it were to be implemented. Nevertheless, DC Card, a part of MUFG group, announced it will lower its credit card loan rate from 27.8% to 18% in Aug. DC Card is the first bank-affiliated credit card company to announce such a move.

　　However, Japan's economic data releases remain reassuring, and modest interest rate rises and the normalisation of the economy is constructive for the market. The BoJ's quarterly survey on individuals found that their expectations for inflation, as well as the perception of actual inflation, soared in June after more than a year of stability. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months surged by 1.6% from March, which reveals a significant change in people's mindset about prices. Expectations for land prices also picked up sharply over the same three months, from 4.5 to 11.8. An important point is that real policy interest rates have become deeply negative, to the extent that the expected rate of inflation is higher than actual inflation. This is positive for capex, as well as consumption.

　　连升三周的日股至上周表现反复，走势缺乏方向。市场交投依然疏落，投资似是在本周五日本央行就息口作出决定前采取观望态度。季度短观调查虽提供有关经济复苏的新迹象，显示营商信心加强，企业亦计划增加资本开支及投资，东京第一市场指数仍跌0.9%。

　　按2007与2008财年盈利计算，东京第一市场指数目前的市盈率分别为17倍与15.5倍，应足以反映冒险意欲下降，以及中期全球投资形势欠明朗的因素。防守与基本材料股跑赢大市，后者因油价上升而反弹。非银行类金融股与消费融资股急挫，有消息指自民党小组委员会建议将借贷利率上限由目前的29.2%调低至15%至20%。预计这项建议即使付诸实行，亦会提供多项豁免。虽然如此，MUFG集团成员DC Card却宣布会在8月份将

　　不过，日本发表的经济数据依然乐观，轻微加息可令经济回复正轨，有利于股市。日本央行进行的季度个人调查发现，日本人民一年来维持稳定的通胀预期及对实际通胀的看法均于6月份急升。未来12个月的预期通胀率比3月份急升1.6%，反映人们对物价的看法大大改变。过去三个月对土地价格的预期，亦由4.5大幅回升至11.8。当中的重要因素是日本存在严重负实质利率，预期通胀率较实际通胀率为高，有利于资本开支，亦利好消费。

　　(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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