2006年7月17日全球金融市场周报：美国

　　United States 美国

　　Weakness returned to Wall Street last week, with stocks pulled lower by nervousness over the outlook for economic growth and interest rates. Technology stocks underperformed, leading to a 1.9% drop for the tech-biased NASDAQ Index. The broader market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrials Average, was less severely impacted, but still ended the week 0.5% lower. Concerns were raised by signs of economic weakness and rising inflationary pressures. Weaker economic data included a larger than expected fall in June's ISM manufacturing survey and weaker than expected growth in the services sector. Non-farm payrolls data also revealed slower jobs growth over the last month, with the 121,000 new jobs created below expectations.

　　Under normal circumstances, softer economic news would be expected to boost investor confidence, as it makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. However, despite the evidence of weaker economic growth, signs also emerged of building inflationary pressures. Firstly, rising geopolitical instability, caused by renewed Israeli-Palestinian violence and North Korean missile tests, helped send oil prices to a new record high of USD 75 per barrel. Higher oil prices cause higher energy costs for industry and consumers, which can ultimately spur inflation and constrain economic growth. Secondly, inflation worries were further raised by news that wage growth had surged to a five-year high in June. The concern is that, in its battle to snuff out inflation, the Fed raises interest rates too far and also snuffs out economic growth. A combination of slowing economic growth and rising inflation is feared by investors as it could force the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates, which could potentially exacerbating the economic slowdown.

　　In corporate news, 3M, the office products company and Dow constituent, issued a profits warning due to lower than expected sales. Struggling car maker and fellow Dow stock, General Motors, was urged to join talks about a joint partnership with Nissan and Renault to try and rejuvenate its business. Tobacco stocks, meanwhile, surged after a Florida court rejected a request for punitive damages of USD 145 billion against the industry. In the short term, we expect further volatility on Wall Street as investors continue to study economic data releases in order to assess the prospects for further interest rate increases. However, forecasts for second-quarter earnings remain supportive and valuations have become much more attractive. Any sign that interest rates have peaked will likely be very positive for US equities.

　　上周华尔街重陷弱势，经济增长与息口前景再受关注，将股市推低。科技股表现欠佳，拖累纳斯达克指数下跌1.9%。以道琼斯工业平均指数衡量的整体大市所受冲击较为轻微，但仍低收0.5%。

　　经济疲软及通胀压力加剧迹象备受市场关注。制造业和服务业增长逊色。非农业支薪人数亦反映上月职位增长减慢至只有12万个，逊于预期。一般情况下，经济消息疲软可刺激投资信心，原因是联储局加息机会因而降低。但尽管经济增长呈现减弱迹象，通胀压力却有加剧之势。

　　首先，以巴再发生暴力事件与北韩试射导弹导致地缘政治局势不稳，将油价推上每桶75美元新高。油价上涨令工业及消费者

能源开支增加，最终刺激通胀，压抑经济增长。其次，6月份工资增长亦急升上五年新高，令通胀忧虑进一步加剧。市场担心为了压抑通胀，联储局可能会加息过多，以致经济增长亦受拖累。投资者对滞胀忧心忡忡，因为联储局可能会因而继续加息，令经济放缓更为严重。

　　公司消息方面，道指成分股办公室产品公司3M基于销售逊于预期而发表盈利警告。挣扎求存的通用汽车(General Motors)则有必要参加与日产(Nissan)及雷诺(Renault)组成合伙企业的磋商，以重振其业务。与此同时，佛罗里达州法院驳回有关烟草业缴交1,450亿美元惩罚性损害赔偿的要求，刺激烟草股急升。投资者将继续留意经济数据，以评估进一步加息机会，预计短期内美股会更为波动。不过，第二季盈利预测依然乐观，股值亦更为吸引。一旦息口呈现见顶迹象，将会极有利于美股。

　　(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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