2006年7月17日全球金融市场周报：欧洲

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European equity markets shrugged off concerns over an imminent rise in interest rates, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions caused by North Korea's missile testing. The FTSE Euro1st 300 Index inched up 0.2%. The UK's FTSE 100 outperformed, climbing 0.95% helped by its large weighting in oil and mining stocks, which both rallied on surging commodity prices. Investors were also encouraged by news that the UK manufacturing sector had expanded in June and reports that annual house price inflation had reached 9.4% in the same month (up from 9.1% in May). The decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest monetary policy meeting also cheered investors. Meanwhile, speculation that UK economic growth will probably miss estimates set out in the central bank's May inflation report dampened fears that rates will rise in the coming months. On other major bourses, the Swiss SPI also managed a gain (up 0.2%), although other markets didn't fare so well, with France's CAC 40 falling -0.25% and the German DAX finishing relatively flat (-0.03%).

　　Interest rates continued to be the hot topic on the Continent as the European Central Bank met to discuss borrowing costs. In the event, rates were left on hold, but the central bank's President, Jean-Claude Trichet, hinted that rates may rise in August by maintaining that the bank will exercise 'strong vigilance' to ensure price stability. News that the eurozone manufacturing and service sectors both grew at their fastest pace in six years in June heightened fears that rates will rise at the central bank's impromptu meeting at the beginning of August.

　　At the stock level, the energy sector had a good week, boosted by record high oil prices, while technology stocks had a mixed week buffeted by volatility in the US and several companies announcing cuts in their earnings forecasts, including France's Business Objects. Autos also had a challenging week amid broadly disappointing sales figures, while in the aerospace and defense sector, BAE Systems was out of favour as an independent assessment of its stake in French rival, Airbus, came in at EUR 2.75 billion, half the value that had been expected.

　　尽管加息在即，油价上涨，北韩试射导弹又导致地缘政治局势紧张，富时欧洲300指数依然微升0.2%。英国富时100指数因石油及矿务股比重高企而表现较佳，升0.95%；两类股份皆因商品价格急涨而上扬。6月份英国制造业取得增长，按年计房屋价格升幅亦由5月份的9.1%上升至6月份的9.4%，消息令投资者感到鼓舞。英伦银行维持利率不变。另一方面，市场猜测英国经济增长甚可能逊于预期，纾缓了未来数月加息忧虑。

　　其它主要市场方面，瑞士SPI指数亦微升0.2%，法国CAC 40指数跌0.25%，德国DAX指数则相对持平。欧洲大陆市场仍对息口议论纷纷。欧洲央行就借贷成本举行会议，结果利率维持不变，但央行行长谢里特却声称央行会保持“强烈警觉”以确保物价稳定，暗示8月份可能加息。欧元区制造业与服务业于6月份的增长都录得六年来最快步伐，消息令市场忧虑央行有可能在8月初的临时会议上调高利率。

　　股份层面上，油价屡创新高，刺激上周

能源股表现出色；科技股则因美股走势反复及法国Business Objects等若干公司宣布调低盈利预测而表现参差。销售数据普遍未如理想，汽车股上周备受考验。同时，航天及防卫股BAE Systems亦饱受冷落，一间独立机构评估其所持法国对手空中巴士公司(Airbus)的股权为27.5亿欧元，只及预期的一半。

　　(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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