普华永道重磅预测：巴黎奥运会中美金牌榜并列第一！_新浪财经

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　　来源：四大新鲜事

　　2024年7月23日，普华永道英国发布对2024年巴黎夏季奥运会各国奖牌数量的预测。详细如下：

　　普华永道的计量经济模型分析了一系列驱动因素，包括人口和经济规模、收入水平、以往的奥运会表现，以及其他参数，包括该国是否为主办国。从历史上看，这些指标已经显示出与一个国家在奥运会上的表现有统计学意义的关系。

　　普华永道英国预测，美国将在巴黎奥运会上连续第八次蝉联奖牌榜榜首。预计中国将紧随其后，英国有望以微弱优势击败东道主，在奖牌榜上排名第三。如果中国获得预测的100枚奖牌，这将与中国在2008年夏季奥运会上获得的奖牌数量一致。

　　在普华永道英国的预测表中，美国和中国的金牌数量并列第一，均为42枚。

　　英国队预计将在巴黎夏季奥运会上共获得超过55枚奖牌，排在美国和中国之后，位居第三。英国队预计将赢得20枚金牌，略低于2020年东京夏季奥运会的22枚金牌。

　　最引人注目的是法国，普华永道预测它将获得54块奖牌。21枚金牌，这将是他们有史以来最好的成绩，是2020年的两倍多，部分原因是拥有主场优势。

　　普华永道英国对2024年夏季奥运会十大奖牌获得者的预测表如下：

　　普华永道英国首席经济学家barrett Kupelian表示：

　　“英国队的目标是在今年的巴黎夏季奥运会上至少获得50枚奖牌，我们相信他们可以超越这一目标。英国运动员参加了每一届现代夏季奥运会，在每一项比赛中至少赢得一枚金牌，我们预测他们将继续取得这一成功，获得20枚金牌。

　　“建模表明，经济影响力和其他因素，如之前在奥运会上的表现以及一个国家是否主办奥运会，在决定体育成功方面可能是统计上具有重要意义的因素。这突显了经济基本面的重要性，即使在非经济生活领域，如体育和奥运会的成功。”

　　普华永道英国全球体育主管Clive Reeves表示：

　　“奥运会的成功不仅仅是一项体育成就，它是民族自豪感的强大驱动力，可以提高国家的全球声誉。赢得奥运奖牌可以为运动队和个人带来巨大的商业机会。

　　“奥林匹克运动员是伟大的榜样，可以在促进下一代的健康和健身方面发挥重要作用。”普华永道全球体育调查发现，24%的体育领袖认为这是政府在体育方面的重要作用。虽然基层和社区项目可能不像职业体育那样吸引那么多的关注，但它们对公众健康和整体社区福祉有着重大而持久的影响。”

　　原英文报道如下：

　　Team GB expected to finish with more than 55 medals in total at the Paris Summer Olympic Games and come in third place， behind the US and China．

　　Team GB is projected to win 20 gold medals， just shy of the 22 golds at the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo．

　　France is expected to benefit from the ‘host effect’， and more than double their Tokyo gold medal tally．

　　With the Paris Summer Olympic Games officially starting on Friday， PwC’s ongoing Olympic medal predictions table forecasts that Team GB will continue its impressive run of medal hauls in recent Games and rank third in the overall medal tally．

　　PwC’s econometric modelling analyses a range of drivers， including demographic and economic size， income levels， previous Olympic performances and other parameters， including whether the country is the host nation． Historically， these metrics have shown statistically significant relationships with a country’s performance at the Olympic Games．

　　Table： PwC UK predictions for the top ten medal winners at the 2024 Summer Olympic Games

　　Sources for regression： IMF， IOC

　　China to have a record-breaking Summer Olympic Games， with hosts France expected to have a stand out performance

　　PwC UK predicts the US will again top the medal table in Paris for the eighth event in a row． China is expected to follow， with Great Britain narrowly expected to beat the host nation by coming third in the overall medals rank． If China secures the 100 medals predicted， then this would equal their record secured at their home Summer Olympic Games in 2008．

　　The big stand out is France， which PwC predict will take 54 medals． With 21 gold medals， this would be their best result ever - more than double that achieved in 2020， in part due to having the home nation advantage．

　　Barret Kupelian， Chief Economist at PwC UK says：

　　“Team GB is targeting a minimum of 50 medals at this year’s Summer Olympic Games in Paris， and we believe they could surpass this target． British athletes have competed in every modern Summer Olympic Games， winning at least one gold medal at each of the events， and we predict they’ll more than continue this success， picking up an impressive 20 golds．

　　“Modelling shows that economic clout and other factors such as previous performance at the Olympic Games and whether a nation hosts the event can be statistically significant factors in determining sports success． This highlights the importance of economic fundamentals even in non-economic areas of life， such as sporting and Olympic success．”

　　Clive Reeves， Global Sports Leader at PwC UK says：

　　“Olympic success is more than just a sporting achievement， it is a powerful driver of national pride and can enhance the country‘s global reputation． Winning an Olympic medal can lead to significant commercial opportunities for both sports teams and individuals．

　　“Olympic athletes make great role models and can play an important role in promoting health and fitness amongst the next generation． Our upcoming PwC Global Sports Survey found 24% of sports leaders believe this is an important role for the government in sports． Although grassroots and community programmes may not garner as much attention as professional sports， they have a significant and lasting impact on public health and overall community well-being．”