来源：证券时报
作者：吴家明
一线城市楼市一直是市场风向标。据国家统计局，10月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.8%，其中北京、上海、广州和深圳环比分别下降1.1%、0.8%、0.8%和0.5%。
值得注意的是，在二手房价格下跌、在售量居高不下的同时，深圳楼市出现了一个重要变化。深圳公共资源交易公共服务平台16日挂出龙华、坪山两宗宅地，两宗宅地总起拍价为8.73亿元，挂牌结束时间为12月15日。记者注意到，此次出让的龙华A925-1146宗地，商品房销售价格未做限制，而深圳近几年一直在土拍环节对商品房有最高限售价。
深圳超8成二手房成交价低于参考价
“参考价刚推出的时候，大家都说深圳二手房参考价定得太低。现在，我发现很多业主不仅低于这个价格卖房，而且许多购房者还觉得这个参考价并不低。”在深圳八卦岭从事房产中介工作近10年的张经理很是感慨。
2021年2月8日，深圳在国内率先建立二手住房参考价格发布机制。截至目前，二手住房参考价的去留仍未正式“官宣”。多位业内人士反映，二手住房参考价刚刚推出时，深圳绝大多数的二手房业主报价都高于参考价，大多数普通二手房的参考价是当时业主挂牌价的7到8折左右。
乐有家研究中心此前发布的数据显示，10月1日到26日乐有家门店成交的二手房源里，已经有超7成是低于参考价售出。最新的数据显示，上周低于参考价房源成交占比再度创新高，已超8成。
记者在龙华、南山区走访时发现，一些二手房小区过去被投资客炒作，价格迅速抬高，更被市场称为网红神盘，但目前的房价已经大幅回落。以龙华区的龙悦居四期为例，约62平方米房源的成交价最高峰时被炒至超过710万元，目前房产中介力推的同户型房源报价为410万元左右，甚至还出现380万元左右的房源，几乎相较高峰时期的价格腰斩。
而在南山区诺德假日花园小区，48平方米左右的户型在高峰期曾出现每平方米接近16万元的成交价，该片区的房产中介经理表示目前该户型的挂牌价已经降至480万元左右。
另一边，据深圳市房地产中介协会披露数据，截至上周深圳共有58197套有效二手房源在售，维持在历史高位附近。业内人士表示，目前深圳为买方市场，业主挂牌量持续大幅上升，反映业主对未来预期的下滑，但成交困难，想卖的业主逐步接受市场，基本只能降至同小区最低价。买方更多还是观望，只有价格足够低才会入手。也有房产中介经理对记者表示，“深圳的市场需求仍在，只要价格到位，还是可以促成二手房买卖。”
除了深圳，上海顶级学位房价格也出现大幅回落。日前，网传“两年血亏300万，上海福外学区房1000万直接跌价到600万”，有记者走访紧邻陆家嘴的世纪大道区域发现，各家中介门前挂牌的学区房价格已经悄悄走下神坛，尽管看上去部分房源单价仍在10万元以上，但实际成交价已经跌破了预期。
“价格跌回2017年了。”我爱我家门店中介张利萍（化名）表示。和此前动辄十七八万元的单价相比，下跌300万元并不夸张。
低首付再现
早在10月底，多位房产中介经理告诉证券时报记者，许多深圳二手房小区的银行评估价都有所下调。记者也向多家银行的个贷经理进行咨询。有银行个贷经理表示，每套房源的评估价都会不定时动态调整。由于市场价格在下跌，银行合作的评估公司会根据市场价格给银行估价，所以价格下跌在所难免。
有房产中介经理反映，现在有银行可以按照评估价申请贷款，而且银行评估价的调整还没有完全更新，而一般情况下银行评估价比参考价要高，但现在不少二手房的成交价已经低于参考价，也远低于银行评估价。如果购房者能从银行按评估价贷款，意味着可以贷到更多的钱，从而实现低首付。
“通过我们找的渠道进行评估，优质的客户可以从银行贷款8成左右，也就是做高评高贷。”罗湖翠竹一位房产中介经理表示，“以前楼市火爆时期，通过高评高贷这种加杠杆方式购房的现象非常常见，但现在市场行情已经改变，通过高评高贷买房的人非常少。而且，如果按照比较高的银行评估价去申请贷款，交易税费和月供也会更高一些，现在多数购房者都比较谨慎。”
广东省住房政策研究中心研究员李宇嘉表示，通过“高评高贷”购房的逻辑是，购房者对未来房价上涨有比较良好的预期，而在当前楼市下行周期中，上述现象已经明显减少，因为不少购房者认为现在购置房产，后续房价还可能会下跌。
就在16日，国家统计局发布了最新一期70城二手房价格指数。易居研究院研究总监严跃进表示，从10月份房价指数环比上涨的城市数量看，只有2个城市，这说明二手房普遍面临下跌的压力。当前。多数城市对于二手房的政策其实是偏少，把二手房盘活其实不完全是从二手房的角度进行的。如果二手房市场盘活，居民家庭就有收入，就有能力换购新房，也有能力促进房企新房去库存，也进一步可以改善房企的资金状况和解决债务问题，所以后续要重视二手房的交易情况和市场行情。
深圳调整土拍规则
越来越多的城市松绑土拍规则。11月16日，深圳挂牌两宗二类居住用地，一宗位于坪山区，一宗位于龙华区，预计将于12月15日成交出让。
值得一提的是，此次出让的龙华A925-1146宗地，商品房销售价格未做限制。而在公告中提及，宗地的商品住房销售价格，请意向竞买人径询深圳市住房和建设局。
以上批次光明等宅地的土拍规则为例，其宅地出让条件中大多采取“三限双竞+摇号”规则挂牌出让，即：限地价、限普通商品房销售价格、限企业自持的保障性租赁住房建筑面积，竞地价、竞企业自持的保障性租赁住房建筑面积，达到最高限制建筑面积后通过摇号方式确定竞得人。
值得关注的是，受部分城市建议取消地价上限等限制影响，当地土地市场已经显现出活跃度。根据中指研究院监测，10月以来，22城中已有成都、合肥、济南、重庆、厦门、长沙、南京、福州、武汉、苏州、青岛、无锡、天津等城市取消土地地价上限，地价上限取消后，部分城市优质地块成交溢价率提升，竞拍热度有所提高，有利于缓解当前土拍整体低迷情绪。
有分析人士认为，多地取消土拍最高限价，恢复“价高者得”的土拍规则，主要与当前房地产市场供求关系变化有关，若土拍最高限价顺利取消，各地原有的竞配建、竞自持等限制性政策也会随之逐步退出土地市场，将有利于提升土地市场活跃度。不过，也有业内人士认为，新的土地出让规则不会大幅刺激市场热度提升，毕竟投资回暖更多需要视市场表现和企业的销售、回款情况而定。
编辑/tolk
Source: Securities Times
Author: Wu Jiaming
The property market in first-tier cities has always been a trendsetter in the market. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities changed from a 0.2% month-on-month increase to a 0.8% decrease. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell 1.1%, 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively.
It is worth noting that while second-hand housing prices are falling and sales volume remains high, there has been an important change in the Shenzhen property market. The Shenzhen Public Resources Exchange Public Service Platform listed two parcels of residential land in Longhua and Pingshan on the 16th. The total starting price for the two residential lots was 873 million yuan, and the listing ended on December 15. The reporter noticed that there is no limit on the sales price of commercial housing for the Longhua A925-1146 parcel sold this time, yet Shenzhen has had a maximum selling price for commercial housing during local auctions in recent years.
The transaction price of over 80% of second-hand housing in Shenzhen is lower than the reference price
“When the reference price was first introduced, everyone said that the reference price for second-hand housing in Shenzhen was set too low. Now, I find that not only do many owners sell their homes below this price, but many buyers also think that this reference price is not low.” Manager Zhang, who has been working as a real estate agent in Bagualing, Shenzhen for almost 10 years, was very impressed.
On February 8, 2021, Shenzhen took the lead in establishing a second-hand housing reference price publication mechanism in China. Up to now, the retention of the reference price for second-hand housing has not been officially “officially announced.” A number of industry insiders reported that when the reference price for second-hand housing was first introduced, the price of the vast majority of second-hand housing owners in Shenzhen was higher than the reference price. The reference price for most ordinary second-hand housing was about 70% to 20% off the listing price of the owners at the time.
According to data previously released by the Leyoujia Research Center, more than 70% of the second-hand properties sold at Leyoujia stores from October 1 to 26 have already been sold below the reference price. According to the latest data, the share of property transactions below the reference price reached a new high last week, exceeding 80%.
While visiting Longhua and Nanshan District, the reporter discovered that in the past, some second-hand housing neighborhoods were hyped up by investors, prices rose rapidly, and were even more known by the market as influencers, yet housing prices have fallen sharply now. Take Longyueju Phase IV in Longhua District as an example. At its peak, the transaction price of about 62 square meters of housing was speculated to over 7.1 million yuan. Currently, the price of the same apartment type promoted by real estate agents is around 4.1 million yuan, and there are even properties around 3.8 million yuan, which is almost lower than the price during the peak period.
Meanwhile, in the Nord Holiday Garden Community in Nanshan District, the 48-square-meter apartment had a transaction price close to 160,000 yuan per square meter during the peak period. The district's real estate agency manager said that the listing price of this apartment type has now dropped to around 4.8 million yuan.
On the other side, according to data disclosed by the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association, as of last week, a total of 5,8197 effective second-hand properties were on sale in Shenzhen, remaining close to historic highs. Industry insiders said that at present, Shenzhen is a buyer's market, and the number of owners' listings continues to rise sharply, reflecting the decline in owners' expectations for the future, but transactions are difficult, and owners who want to sell are gradually accepting the market; basically, they can only drop to the lowest price in the same neighborhood. Buyers are more likely to wait and see; only if the price is low enough will they get their hands on it. Some real estate agency managers also told reporters, “Market demand in Shenzhen is still there. As long as prices are in place, it can still facilitate second-hand housing transactions.”
In addition to Shenzhen, prices for top degree houses in Shanghai have also fallen sharply. A few days ago, it was reported on the Internet that “in two years, the price of 10 million housing in Fuwai School District in Shanghai dropped directly to 6 million.” A reporter visited the Century Avenue area close to Lujiazui and found that housing prices in school districts listed in front of various intermediaries have quietly fallen below expectations. Although it seems that the unit price of some properties is still above 100,000 yuan, the actual transaction price has fallen short of expectations.
“Prices have dropped back to 2017.” I love my store agent Zhang Liping (pseudonym), said. Compared to the previous unit price, which was easily 1.78 million yuan, a drop of 3 million yuan is not an exaggeration.
Reproduction of low down payments
As early as the end of October, a number of real estate agency managers told the Securities Times reporter that the assessed prices of banks in many second-hand housing districts in Shenzhen had been lowered. The reporter also consulted individual loan managers at various banks. A bank's personal loan manager said that the assessed price of each property will be adjusted dynamically from time to time. As the market price falls, the evaluation company cooperating with the bank will evaluate the bank based on the market price, so it is inevitable that the price will fall.
Some real estate agency managers reported that now some banks can apply for loans according to the assessed price, and the bank's assessed price adjustments have not been completely updated. However, under normal circumstances, banks' assessed prices are higher than the reference prices, but now the transaction prices of many second-hand properties are already below the reference price, and far below the bank's assessed price. If homebuyers can take loans from banks at assessed prices, this means they can borrow more money, thereby achieving a lower down payment.
“Through the channels we are looking for, high-quality customers can get about 80% of bank loans, that is, highly rated loans.” A real estate agency manager from Cuizhu, Luohu, said, “In the past, when the property market was booming, it was very common to buy a house through a leveraged method such as high ratings and high loans, but now the market conditions have changed, and there are very few people who buy houses through high ratings and high loans. Moreover, if you apply for a loan according to a relatively high bank assessment price, transaction taxes, fees, and monthly payments will also be higher. Most buyers are now more cautious.”
Li Yujia, a researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that the logic of buying a house through “high evaluation and high loan” is that buyers have relatively good expectations for future housing price increases, yet in the current downturn in the property market, the above phenomenon has declined markedly, because many buyers believe that if they buy a property now, future housing prices may still fall.
On the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest edition of the second-hand housing price index for 70 cities. Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Institute, said that judging from the number of cities where the housing price index rose month-on-month in October, there were only 2 cities, which shows that second-hand housing is generally under downward pressure. currently. Most cities actually have few policies on second-hand housing; revitalizing second-hand housing is actually not entirely carried out from the perspective of second-hand housing. If the second-hand housing market is revitalized, residents' households will have income, and will be able to buy new homes, and will also be able to promote the removal of new housing stocks by housing enterprises. It can also further improve the financial situation of housing enterprises and resolve debt problems. Therefore, in the future, attention should be paid to second-hand housing transactions and market conditions.
Shenzhen adjusts local photography rules
More and more cities are loosening the rules of local photography. On November 16, Shenzhen listed two Class II residential land, one in Pingshan District and one in Longhua District. It is expected to be sold and sold on December 15.
It is worth mentioning that there is no limit on the sales price of commercial housing for the Longhua A925-1146 parcel sold this time. However, as mentioned in the announcement, interested bidders are invited to inquire with the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau about the sales price of commercial housing in parcels.
Taking the above batch of residential land auction rules such as Guangming as an example, most of the residential land sale conditions adopt the “three limits, double competition+swing” rule for listing and sale, namely: limited land price, limited sales price for ordinary commercial housing, limited floor area of affordable rental housing owned by the enterprise, bid price, and the floor area of affordable rental housing owned by the competing enterprise. After reaching the maximum floor area limit, the contenders are determined by swagger method.
It is worth noting that the local land market is already showing activity due to restrictions such as the proposed lifting of land price caps in some cities. According to monitoring by the China Index Research Institute, since October, out of 22 cities, Chengdu, Hefei, Jinan, Chongqing, Xiamen, Changsha, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou, Qingdao, Wuxi, Tianjin and other cities have lifted land price caps. After the land price cap was lifted, the transaction premium rate for high-quality land plots in some cities has increased, and the popularity of auctions has increased, which is conducive to easing the overall downturn in local auctions.
Some analysts believe that the abolition of the maximum price for land auctions in many places and the restoration of the “the higher the price wins” land auction rules are mainly related to the current changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market. If the maximum price limit for local auctions is successfully abolished, the original restrictive policies of various regions, such as competitive construction and self-ownership, will gradually withdraw from the land market, which will help increase the activity of the land market. However, some industry insiders believe that the new land concession rules will not greatly stimulate an increase in market popularity. After all, the recovery in investment depends more on market performance and the sales and repayment conditions of enterprises.
editor/tolk
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