2006年9月29日全球金融市场周报 新兴市场

 

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Returns from stock markets in the developing world were mixed, leaving the MSCI Emerging Markets Index virtually unchanged. In Latin America, Mexico's IPC rebounded strongly to finish 3.6% higher as the country continued to applaud the news that conservative candidate Felipe Calderon had been named president after weeks of uncertainty. News that industrial production had risen 5.5% in July also proved supportive. Other major markets in the region, however, did not perform so well. Brazils BOVESPA dropped 1.1% as ratings agency Standard & Poor's reiterated its view that an upgrade to the country's credit rating will depend on the government's ability to reduce the budget deficit (Brazil is the most indebted emerging market) and spur economic growth. Argentina's MERVAL also struggled over the week (finishing 0.3% lower) on news that second-quarter growth had slowed to 7.9% and that the government sees the pace of growth weakening to 4% in 2007.

　　In Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary's BUX led the way with a rise of 4.2%. The Czech PX 50 only managed a gain of 0.2%r, while Poland's WIG also underperformed (up 0.6%) after the IMF stated that the country's growth rate will probably slow to 4.5% from 5%in 2007. Turkey's ISE National 100 climbed 2.1% amid news that the country had grown by 7.5% in the second quarter. However, Russia's RTS fell 2.5% due to reports that a key central banker had been shot.

　　上周已发展市场回报参差，

摩根士丹利新兴市场指数则大致持平。拉丁美洲方面，墨西哥保守派候选人就任总统，结束多个星期的不明朗局面，股市强力反弹，高收3.6%。7月份工业生产上升5.5%亦具支持作用。不过，其它拉丁美洲主要市场的表现就乏善可陈。巴西股市跌1.1%，评级机构标准普尔重申，巴西能否获调高信用评级，乃视乎巴西政府能否削减预算赤字(巴西是负债最沉重的新兴市场)和刺激经济增长。阿根廷第二季增长减慢至7.9%，政府又预计明年增长会降至4%，上周阿根廷股市亦低收0.3%。

　　中欧及东欧方面，则以匈牙利上升4.2%领先。捷克股市则微升0.2%。国际

货币基金组织表示明年波兰增长率可能减慢至4.5%，以致波兰股市亦表现欠佳，升0.6%。土耳其第二季经济增长达7.5%，刺激股市升2.1%。然而，俄罗斯股市却因一名央行要员被枪击而下跌2.5%。

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