2006年9月29日全球金融市场周报 美国

 

　　United States 美国

　　US equities rebounded last week as signs of moderating inflation, encouraging data on the US economy and weak oil prices boosted investor confidence. The tech-laden NASDAQ surged 3.2% after a broker upgrade to the semiconductor sector, while the Dow Jones rose 1.4%, inching closer to its all-time high. A steep slide in oil prices provided the basis for a positive week. News that Iran had agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, a calm hurricane season and relatively high inventory levels depressed prices, while reports that OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration had all cut their 2006 and 2007 energy demand forecasts accelerated the decline. Reports that US retail sales had risen 0.2% in August (versus consensus forecasts of a 0.1% decline) raised hopes that consumers are remaining resilient despite increased uncertainty over the economy, a slowing housing market and rising interest rates. This news coupled with a strengthening in the New York Fed's manufacturing index, and a rise in the University of Michigan's preliminary estimate for consumer confidence in September raised hopes that the economy will slow but not suffer a hard landing. But, the news, coupled with reports of a larger than expected rise in August import prices, did ignite fears that interest rates may have to rise again to stem an acceleration in inflation. A modest rise of 0.2% in consumer prices during August however helped dampen worries over inflationary pressures.

　　The week saw the beginning of the third-quarter reporting season. Among those announcing, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns all reported strong results. Elsewhere, McDonalds saw a 6% rise in August sales. Other corporate news however was not so supportive. On the NASDAQ, Dell announced that it would be postponing the release of its second-quarter results and suspending its share buyback programme due to an accounting probe. Hewlett-Packard remained in the limelight following reports that its chairwoman had resigned and that several officials would be indicted amid allegations that illegal methods had been used to acquire personal information from board members during an investigation into boardroom leaks. On the Dow, the long awaited restructuring plan from Ford which will see the car giant lay off one third of its salaried workforce and close some manufacturing plants was seen as falling short of what is needed to halt the automaker's financial losses and remedy its declining position in the autos industry.

　　美国通胀有放缓之势、经济数据令人鼓舞及油价偏软，都有助刺激投资信心，推动上周美股反弹。

半导体股获经纪行调高评级，偏重科技股的纳斯达克指数急涨3.2%。道琼斯指数则升1.4%，逼近历年高位。油价急挫为上周造就乐观基础。伊朗同意暂停提炼浓缩铀计划，飓风季节情况平静，加上库存相对充裕，都令油价受压，石油出口国组织、国际

能源机构与能源情报局都调低今明两年的能源需求预测，令油价跌势加速。

　　8月份零售销售额上升0.2%，超出一般预期，令市场憧憬消费者在经济更趋不明朗、房屋市道放缓及息口上升情况下依然表现稳健。加上纽约联储局制造业指数和麦歇根大学9月份消费信心初步估计上升，令市场憧憬经济会放缓，但不致硬着陆。不过，受上述消息影响，8月份入口价格升幅又超出预期，市场再度担心联储局可能会再加息以防止通胀加速。8月份消费物价只是微升0.2%，有助压抑通胀压力隐忧。

　　第三季业绩期于上周揭开序幕。宣布业绩公司当中，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)、雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)都录得骄人业绩。其它方面，麦当劳(McDonalds)8月份销售额亦上升6%。不过，其它公司消息就并非如此乐观。纳指方面，戴尔计算机(Dell)因当局对其账目展开调查而宣布押后公布第二季业绩，并暂停其股份回购计划。惠普(Hewlett-Packard)女主席辞职，若干要员又因涉及以非法手段取得个人资料而被控，令该公司备受关注。道指方面，福特汽车(Ford)终于公布重组计划，将会裁减三分一人手，并关闭部分超出需要的制造厂房，以减少财政亏损，挽救在汽车业内江河日下的地位。

 

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