2006年9月29日全球金融市场周报 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　TOPIX ended 1.6% lower, undermined by concerns over the outlook for the domestic economy after data revealed a sharp slowdown in private machinery orders in June. Japanese investors were further worried by signs that domestic demand may also be waning, as domestic consumer sentiment fell sharply in July. The ESRI's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly declined further to 47.6 in August, from 48.6 in July. Ratio of respondents, expecting a rise in prices in the next 12months, rose substantial 8.7points to 69.8% in August, while respondents who expect a fall in prices continued to decline to 3.0% from 3.9% in July. This can be a major reason of worsening sentiment.

　　Domestic corporate goods prices rose 3.4% YoY in August, keeping the highest growth in 25 years recorded in July. Final goods CGPI continued monthly rise by 0.1% MoM after the July's strong 0.3%, which partly reflects the one-off tax hike for tobacco products. As a result, final goods prices maintained a flat YoY growth for a 2nd straight month, following the declines in three months through June. Meanwhile, intermediate goods prices have been elevated, up 5.7% YoY led by petroleum products and non-ferrous metals, while import prices rose 18.5% YoY, driven by petroleum and metals. Although the final goods CGPI, which has close correlation with core goods CPI, has not been on clear uptrend, the latest surveys suggest a reviving firms' pricing power. We believe that firms will eventually raise price tags in response to the rise in input prices.

　　Atsushi Mizuno, BoJ board member, stated that the market should not forget that the BoJ will continue to make a fine tuning of interest rates, as long as the economy and prices are in line with the BoJ's expectation, shown in April Outlook report. Mizuno also emphasized that the BoJ is forward looking in implementing monetary policy, reiterating Fukui's comments that the BoJ's policy is not affected by the rebasing of CPI. He said that the new trend of CPI is more important, than the current level of CPI, encouraging the market participants to discuss how the trend of the core CPI looks like.

　　6月份私人机器订单锐减，国内经济前景备受关注，东京第一市场指数低收1.6%。7月份国内消费意欲急跌，内需呈现减弱迹象，令日本投资者更感忧卢。8月份消费意欲指数进一步下降。月内受访者当中，预计未来12月价格上升的比例大幅增加8.7%至69.8%，预计物价下跌的比例则继续减少，是投资意欲低迷的主要原因。

　　8月份国内企业商品价格指数上升3.4%，维持7月份所录得25年来最高增长。继7月份大幅上升0.3%后，最终商品指数继续较上月升0.1%，部分原因在于当局一次过提高烟草产品税项。与去年同期比较，最终商品价格于截至6月份连跌三月后，连续第二个月维持平稳增长。与此同时，中间货品价格则有所上升，在石油产品及有色金属带动下较去年同期上涨5.7%，入口价格则升18.5%。尽管与核心商品消费物价指数亦步亦趋的最终商品企业商品价格指数并非明显走势向上，但最近调查却显示企业订价能力有所回升。相信企业最终可因应投入价格上涨而提高售价。

　　日本央行委员水野温氏(Atsushi Mizuno)表示，只要经济和物价表现符合日本央行预期，日本央行仍会继续调整利率。水野并强调，日本央行在推动货币政策时乃采取前瞻性方针，亦重申日本央行政策不受重订消费物价指数基数影响。水野表示，消费物价指数趋势比现水平更为重要。