华泰 | 宏观：FOMC - 11月如期降息，明年节奏更不确定

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（来源：华泰证券研究所）

北京时间11月8日（周五）凌晨，联储11月FOMC宣布降息25bp，基准利率降至4.5%-4.75%，符合市场预期；鲍威尔对12月是否会降息维持开放指引，表示不会因特朗普可能的解雇要求而辞职。决议声明中，联储删除了“对通胀达标更有信心”的表述，但鲍威尔讲话中也表达了对就业市场放缓的担忧，大选对联储短期决策没有影响，后续政策路径仍然取决于数据表现。由于鲍威尔未给出明确指引，市场反应不大。截至北京时间凌晨5：00，相较于会前，市场对12月会议降息预期维持在18bp左右，对2025年全年降息预期上行2bp至70bp（图表1）；2年期和10年期美债收益率小幅震荡，最终均持平于4.20%和4.33%；美元指数也基本持平于104.3；美股三大股指中标普500和纳指分别上涨0.7%和1.5%，道指整体持平；黄金小幅上涨0.4%至2704美元/盎司。

基本面方面，鲍威尔强调美国经济仍然相对稳健（solid），但劳工市场较2019年有所放松，通胀更加接近2%的目标，而核心通胀仍偏高。增长方面，鲍威尔表示三季度的增长动能基本持平二季度，消费支出维持稳健，设备投资有所回升，但地产仍然偏弱。就业方面，劳动力市场整体稳健，新增非农就业较此前有所放缓，最近三个月的均值为10.4万人，或受到罢工和飓风的影响，失业率在过去三个月有所回落，维持在相对偏低的水平，总体而言劳工市场的整体水平不及2019年（less tight），且当前就业市场不是通胀的压力来源。通胀方面，鲍威尔表示近期的通胀数据不算糟糕但仍高于预期（wasn’t terrible but little higher than expected），考虑到目前住房通胀将持续向更低的市场化租金水平靠近，超预期的通胀数据不会改变通胀下行的趋势，联储对通胀反复（bumpy）已有一定预期。

利率指引方面，鲍威尔对12月是否继续降息持开放态度，但表示联储开始考虑放缓政策调整的步伐。鲍威尔表示，即使考虑到11月降息，目前的利率水平仍然是限制性的，暗示未来还可能继续降息，但对于12月是否会暂停降息，鲍威尔并未给出明确的答案（doesn’t rule out or in a cut），强调利率路径取决于后续数据。值得注意的是，鲍威尔表示联储已经开始考虑放缓降息和缩表的步伐，暗示未来联储降息的节奏或有所放缓，考虑到货币市场利率近期波动加剧，联储或更加接近停止缩表的时点。

鲍威尔不愿过多评论特朗普对联储的可能影响，但强调不会因特朗普可能的解雇要求而辞职。鲍威尔表示，大选对联储近期的决策没有影响，联储不会猜测或者假设未来的政策；如果未来政策对经济产生影响，届时联储会再进行应对。此外，鲍威尔避免对特朗普政府进行评论，但表示，不会因特朗普可能的解雇要求而辞职，且现有法律不允许总统解雇联储主席和副主席。

往前看，预计联储在12月FOMC仍可能再降息25bp，但2025年降息路径取决于经济和市场的后续表现。近期美国经济仍然有韧性，三季度GDP增速维持高位；飓风和罢工等一次性冲击导致10月非农显著不及预期，就业市场的潜在水平仍有待11月数据确认。联储决议声明的调整引发对联储12月是否会暂停降息的猜测，我们认为，考虑到鲍威尔表示当前利率仍然具有限制性，而就业市场已经弱于疫情前，联储12月FOMC再降息25bp概率仍然较高。但由于特朗普当选总统叠加共和党大概率赢下参众两院，其财政、贸易以及移民政策可能具有一定通胀属性，这意味着联储在年内或继续维持相对开放的指引，明年一季度将视实体经济和市场表现“再校准”2025年的政策利率路径。

风险提示：联储鹰派超预期，市场动荡导致金融条件快速收紧。

附录:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gainsSince earlier in the year, labor market conditions have slowed generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In lights support of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/24 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.Voting against this action was Michelle W. Bowman, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

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