12:15 AM EST, 02/03/2023 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $115, cut $26, reflects a 5.5x multiple of EV to projected '24 EBITDA, in line with COP's historical forward average. We cut our '23 EPS estimate by $3.14 to $9.94, and start '24's at $10.93. Q4 EPS of $2.71, vs. $2.27, missed the consensus view by $0.18. COP's organic reserve replacement ratio in '22 of 177% was extremely strong, and COP is adding to its LNG capabilities both in Qatar and in the U.S., a business we think continues to grow as Western Europe endeavors to wean itself off Russian supply. COP guided to $11B in returns to shareholders in '23 (about 50/50 between dividends and buybacks, assuming $80 WTI crude), down from $15B in '22. However, given a price deck that is likely lower year-over-year, this implies only a slight shift towards oil and gas development, and COP sees production growth in a range of 1% to 4% in '23. We note that COP's '23 guidance on cost inflation vs. '22 base capex (ex-M&A) is just 7%, which we think is fairly good.
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