2024年第三季度中国宏观金融分析报告（中英文摘要）_新浪财经

2024年第三季度中国宏观金融分析报告

（中文摘要）

中国社会科学院金融研究所宏观金融分析团队

存量与增量并重：宏观经济治理思路创新

2024年第三季度，全球宏观金融呈现三大特征：一是美国和欧洲的总体通胀率下行态势显著，均进行降息操作，而日本因通胀压力仍存，采取适度渐进加息策略。二是美国消费和投资仍保持较强韧性，其中衡量美国经济健康的核心指标——实际非住宅投资尚未出现衰退迹象，美国经济软着陆仍是主流叙事，但人工智能对美国经济增长的驱动作用不宜被夸大。三是中东地缘政治冲突和美国大选博弈加剧了石油和黄金等大宗商品的价格波动。鉴于美国核心通胀十分顽固，9月份就业数据远超预期，加之中东紧张局势与美国码头罢工事件造成的负面供给冲击，美国通胀存在较大的反弹风险。由于数据滞后性，美联储货币政策转向力度缺乏清晰的锚，导致市场难以形成一致预期，美联储降息路径充满不确定性。

外部环境变化对中国的影响包括三个方面：首先，美国降息使美元指数走低，人民币兑美元汇率呈现升值态势，但在美联储降息路径不确定的情形下，人民币兑美元汇率在双向波动下仍面临一定的贬值压力。其次，随着全球市场进一步分割和重构，中国外商直接投资净流入下降是一种正常现象，但外国长期资本投资中国服务业和高技术产业的规模将会进一步扩大。最后，中国经济基本面在全球主要经济体中表现良好，持续扩张的宏观经济政策将显著提振外资来华展业兴业的信心，以证券投资为主的短期外国资本将会持续净流入中国，看好中国资产并投资中国。

2024年第三季度，国内经济运行总体平稳，但经济活力不足问题突出。一方面，消费品以旧换新释放内需潜力，但就业和收入预期不稳降低居民消费信心，土地出让收入锐减制约政府消费。另一方面，金融对实体经济的支持力度有所回升，但M1持续大幅负增长，经济运行“气血不足”。

为提振市场信心和激发社会活力，中央及时推出一揽子增量政策，彰显了宏观经济治理思路的重要创新。一是优化存量结构调整，包括金融部门降息“让利于民”、中央置换隐性债务为地方政府“松绑”，推动宏观资产负债表再平衡。二是以重振资产价格为政策发力点，既能立竿见影提振信心、活跃经济，又可发挥财富效应对消费和投资的促进作用。三是扩大内需政策重心更多放在惠民生、促消费，更加关注“人”的投资。一揽子增量政策效果开始显现，房地产、消费等需求指标出现好转，资本市场活跃度显著提升。

为巩固和增强经济回升向好势头，宏观政策可在以下方向持续发力、更加给力：一是增发特别国债，在养老、托育、教育、医疗以及保障性住房等民生领域加大财政投入。二是货币政策锚定通胀目标，继续实施有力度的降息，增强政策操作的规则性和透明度。三是加快推动中长期资金入市，适时设立股市平准基金，提升资本市场内在稳定性。

本季度专题报告聚焦房地产市场。2024年第三季度，房地产市场呈现价格下跌、成交量分化的现象。根据我团队对三座重点城市房地产市场调研显示，目前房企面临融资困难、资不抵债风险和库存资源结构错配等问题；房地产市场的“好房子”供给不足；“以旧换新”的收储工作需要继续推进。为应对房地产市场疲软，近期政策对房地产支持力度加大，9月24日的国新办发布会、9月26日的政治局会议和10月17日的五部门联合会议均出台了多项房地产支持政策。但目前房地产市场的相关政策支持力度仍显不足。为继续化解房地产风险，实现保交房和保主体的双重目标，不仅需要尽快实施更具扩张性的财政政策、建立国家住房收储制度、全面放开限购与限贷政策，还要助力房企化解流动性风险，并增加“好房子”供给。

CHINA MACRO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 2024Q3

（SUMMARY）

CMFA Team at Institute of Finance & Banking,

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Equal Emphasis on Stock and Flow Management:

Innovations in Macroeconomic Governance

In the third quarter of 2024, the global macro-financial landscape exhibited three significant features: Firstly, both the United States and Europe experienced a marked downward trend in overall inflation rates, prompting interest rate cuts, while Japan adopted a moderate and gradual interest rate hike strategy due to persistent inflationary pressures. Secondly, U.S. consumption and investment remained resilient, with core indicators of U.S. economic health, such as real non-residential investment, showing no signs of recession. The narrative of a soft landing for the U.S. economy prevailed, though the role of artificial intelligence in driving U.S. economic growth should not be overstated. Thirdly, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the dynamics of the U.S. election intensified price volatility in commodities like oil and gold. Given the stubbornness of core inflation in the U.S., September's employment data far exceeded expectations, and negative supply shocks from Middle Eastern tensions and port strikes contributed to significant risks of an inflation rebound in the U.S. Due to the lag in data, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy lacks a clear anchor, leading to market uncertainty and rendering the path of Fed rate cuts uncertain.

Changes in the external environment have impacted China in three ways: Firstly, U.S. interest rate cuts have led to a lower dollar index and an appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar, yet the uncertainty in the Fed's rate-cutting path means the Renminbi still faces depreciation pressures amid two-way fluctuations. Secondly, as global markets further segment and restructure, a decline in net foreign direct investment inflows into China is normal, but foreign long-term capital investment in China's service and high-tech industries is expected to increase significantly. Lastly, China's economic fundamentals remain strong among major global economies. Ongoing expansive macroeconomic policies will significantly bolster foreign investor confidence in operating and prospering in China, leading to continued net inflows of short-term foreign capital, particularly in securities investment, reflecting optimism toward Chinese assets and investment.

Domestically, the economy maintained overall stability in the third quarter of 2024, but a lack of economic vitality was evident. While the trade-in of old consumer goods unlocked domestic demand potential, unstable expectations of employment and income dampened consumer confidence, and a sharp decline in land sales revenue constrained government consumption. On the other hand, financial support for the real economy increased, but M1 continued to experience a significant negative growth, indicating a “lack of energy” in economic operations.

To boost market confidence and stimulate social vitality, the central government promptly introduced a package of incremental policies, reflecting significant innovations in macroeconomic governance. First, it optimized the adjustment of existing structures, including interest rate cuts by financial sectors to benefit the public, and swapped hidden debts to relieve local government burdens, promoting a rebalancing of the macro balance sheet. Second, targeting asset price revitalization as a policy focus could quickly boost confidence and stimulate economic activity, and exert a wealth effect to stimulate consumption and investment. Third, expanding domestic demand policies placed a greater emphasis on improving livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a stronger focus on “people” as an investment. The effects of the incremental policy package began to manifest, as indicators of demand in real estate and consumption improved and the capital market's activity increased significantly.

To consolidate and enhance the favorable economic recovery momentum, macroeconomic policies can concentrate efforts on the following areas: First, issuing special bonds to increase fiscal investment in social welfare sectors such as pensions, childcare, education, healthcare, and affordable housing. Second, aligning monetary policy with inflation targets, continuing robust interest rate cuts, and enhancing the rules and transparency of policy operations. Third, accelerating the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, establishing a stock market stabilization fund when appropriate, and enhancing the intrinsic stability of the capital market.

This quarter's special report focuses on the real estate market. In the third quarter of 2024, the real estate market showed phenomena of price declines and transaction volume segmentation. Our team's research into real estate markets in three key cities indicates that developers currently face financing difficulties, risks of insolvency, and mismatches in the inventory resource structure. There is an insufficient supply of “good housing” in the real estate market, and the trade-in and storage efforts need to continue. To address the sluggish real estate market, recent policies have increased support for the sector, with multiple supportive measures introduced at the September 24 State Council Information Office press conference, the September 26 Politburo meeting and the joint meeting of the five departments on October 17th. However, the current policy support for the real estate market is still insufficient. To continue resolving real estate risks and achieve the dual goals of ensuring property delivery and entity stability, more expansive fiscal policies need to be implemented swiftly, a national housing storage system established, and restrictions on purchases and loans relaxed. Additionally, helping developers tackle liquidity risks and increasing the supply of “good housing” are essential.

（转自：中国社会科学院金融研究所）