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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场在长时间盘整后在周三忽然爆发出强大的上升动力，普涨格局再度激发了市场人气，但周四周五的震荡回调也显示市场对突如其来的迅猛上涨仍然信心不足，在趋势选择上仍存犹豫。而从基金的角度看，我们仍然保持一贯的看法，即基金对市场底部的认识较为一致，但对于后市走向仍然存有分歧。总体上基金操作并未太受市场波动影响，而是按
部就班地执行各自策略。在上周不少新基金继续显示为增持，也有部分老基金显示减持。值得注意的是部分前期做空的基金也显示出一定增仓迹象，对后市看法回暖的可能性较大。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为60.80%，与前周相比微幅上升了0.4%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为65.52%，比前周的66.54%略有下降。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，上周仍然有部分新发基金继续显示增持迹象。64只开放式基金中有5只显示为增仓，其中天治财富增长、招商先锋等基金增持最为明显。但在另一方面，也有相当部分的基金在进行仓位调整，景顺股票、金鹰中小盘精选、大成蓝筹稳健等4只基金显示为减持。从个别基金的仓位变动上来看，还有一点值得注意的就是部分前期做空的基金也开始增加仓位，表明对后市的看法也在趋于乐观。例如3季度显示大幅减仓的华夏回报基金上周增持较为明显，其后续动向值得关注。
从上周市场情况来看，周三大盘的大幅上涨略显突然，在中国联通(资讯 行情 论坛)这只超级大盘股的带动下市场再度呈现普涨格局，成交量也成倍放大。但从单日大幅上涨的格局和方式来看，市场在技术性底部和政策面利好双重作用下出现反弹的可能性较大，而趋势是否确立则仍不明朗。从基金的角度看，基金对于底部区域认识趋同，而对未来基本面和市场走向的看法仍然存有分歧；体现在其操作上就是轻仓基金可以轻松建仓，但老基金也不轻易将仓位推至很高水平。不少市场人士将周三的大幅反弹归因于政策面利好的累积结果，保险资金直接入市，社保资金、企业年金逐步入市，增加了市场资金供给，而暂停新股发行则控制了资金需求。仅从政策面来看4季度可能还有一系列利好出台，但负面因素也始终存于预期，包括对高风险券商的处理行动，超级大盘股上市的压力，新股询价制度的推出等等。我们认为种种因素的作用使得基金对4季度市场的预期在乐观中也存有谨慎，市场不确定性仍然较大。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
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上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
天治增长 |
50.33% |
38.45% |
11.88% |
10.91% |
增持迹象 |
招商先锋 |
64.76% |
56.33% |
8.43% |
7.43% |
荷银精选 |
57.65% |
50.26% |
7.39% |
6.37% |
富国动态 |
58.66% |
51.43% |
7.23% |
6.21% |
巨田基础 |
65.72% |
59.70% |
6.02% |
5.05% |
华夏回报 |
56.99% |
51.56% |
5.44% |
4.42% |
仓位稳定 |
华安创新 |
70.43% |
65.09% |
5.34% |
4.42% |
诺安平衡 |
60.60% |
55.72% |
4.88% |
3.88% |
景顺内需 |
64.88% |
60.29% |
4.59% |
3.61% |
普天收益 |
71.42% |
67.43% |
3.99% |
3.11% |
海富通精选 |
71.31% |
67.37% |
3.93% |
3.04% |
华夏成长 |
68.28% |
64.78% |
3.50% |
2.58% |
国泰稳健 |
68.16% |
64.85% |
3.31% |
2.39% |
华宝策略 |
67.65% |
64.71% |
2.94% |
2.01% |
易方达策略 |
78.55% |
75.98% |
2.57% |
1.83% |
金鹰优选 |
71.46% |
68.80% |
2.66% |
1.80% |
嘉实稳健 |
64.95% |
62.36% |
2.59% |
1.64% |
富国价值 |
66.09% |
63.52% |
2.57% |
1.63% |
鹏华 50 |
61.87% |
59.28% |
2.59% |
1.61% |
海富通收益 |
43.57% |
41.12% |
2.44% |
1.46% |
长城久恒 |
66.89% |
64.62% |
2.27% |
1.35% |
博时裕富 |
76.15% |
74.12% |
2.03% |
1.25% |
景顺平衡 |
53.75% |
51.71% |
2.04% |
1.02% |
长城久泰 |
75.21% |
73.54% |
1.67% |
0.88% |
天同 180 |
78.99% |
77.45% |
1.54% |
0.84% |
融通行业 |
61.88% |
60.33% |
1.54% |
0.57% |
银河稳健 |
66.58% |
65.10% |
1.47% |
0.56% |
国泰精选 |
66.05% |
64.77% |
1.29% |
0.36% |
中融行业 |
49.67% |
48.31% |
1.36% |
0.35% |
泰信策略 |
64.97% |
63.71% |
1.27% |
0.33% |
华安 180 |
76.09% |
75.36% |
0.74% |
-0.01% |
招商平衡 |
48.51% |
47.62% |
0.89% |
-0.13% |
博时价值 |
77.50% |
76.96% |
0.54% |
-0.17% |
银华优势 |
66.34% |
65.87% |
0.47% |
-0.44% |
招商股票 |
68.15% |
67.73% |
0.42% |
-0.46% |
融通 100 |
76.73% |
76.55% |
0.18% |
-0.54% |
融通成长 |
39.49% |
39.25% |
0.24% |
-0.73% |
德盛稳健 |
56.54% |
56.80% |
-0.26% |
-1.26% |
南方稳健 |
66.98% |
67.50% |
-0.52% |
-1.41% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.66% |
66.22% |
-0.55% |
-1.46% |
申万精选 |
51.97% |
52.47% |
-0.50% |
-1.51% |
易方达 50 |
74.15% |
75.05% |
-0.91% |
-1.66% |
宝康消费 |
64.52% |
65.67% |
-1.15% |
-2.06% |
长盛动态 |
41.23% |
43.00% |
-1.77% |
-2.77% |
宝康灵活 |
54.08% |
56.05% |
-1.97% |
-2.97% |
鹏华成长 |
58.47% |
60.54% |
-2.07% |
-3.04% |
嘉实服务 |
57.05% |
59.33% |
-2.28% |
-3.26% |
易方达平稳 |
63.47% |
65.84% |
-2.37% |
-3.28% |
嘉实成长 |
68.60% |
71.46% |
-2.85% |
-3.68% |
合丰周期 |
69.70% |
72.81% |
-3.11% |
-3.90% |
长盛成长 |
66.14% |
69.21% |
-3.07% |
-3.93% |
融通新蓝筹 |
64.46% |
67.55% |
-3.09% |
-3.98% |
银河理财 |
49.29% |
52.31% |
-3.02% |
-4.03% |
广发聚富 |
67.99% |
71.25% |
-3.26% |
-4.09% |
合丰稳定 |
62.19% |
65.36% |
-3.18% |
-4.10% |
合丰成长 |
67.74% |
71.03% |
-3.29% |
-4.12% |
国泰金鹰 |
61.71% |
64.96% |
-3.25% |
-4.18% |
德盛精选 |
55.30% |
58.85% |
-3.55% |
-4.53% |
嘉实增长 |
60.58% |
64.20% |
-3.62% |
-4.55% |
博时精选 |
62.43% |
66.30% |
-3.87% |
-4.77% |
大成价值 |
61.31% |
65.94% |
-4.63% |
-5.54% |
减持迹象 |
大成稳健 |
61.58% |
66.31% |
-4.73% |
-5.63% |
金鹰精选 |
66.71% |
71.72% |
-5.00% |
-5.82% |
景顺股票 |
67.19% |
72.66% |
-5.48% |
-6.28% |
加权平均 |
60.80% |
60.40% |
0.40% |
-0.57% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 计算截至：04-11-12 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金普惠 |
65.89% |
62.59% |
-3.30% |
2.35% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕隆 |
67.77% |
64.78% |
-2.99% |
2.07% |
基金同益 |
65.45% |
62.55% |
-2.91% |
1.96% |
基金科瑞 |
68.70% |
65.87% |
-2.83% |
1.92% |
基金安顺 |
62.47% |
60.25% |
-2.22% |
1.25% |
基金景福 |
65.36% |
63.54% |
-1.82% |
0.88% |
基金普华 |
64.69% |
63.47% |
-1.22% |
0.28% |
基金银丰 |
66.80% |
65.68% |
-1.12% |
0.21% |
基金开元 |
66.70% |
65.67% |
-1.03% |
0.12% |
基金丰和 |
69.02% |
68.72% |
-0.99% |
0.12% |
基金融鑫 |
68.01% |
67.87% |
-0.83% |
-0.05% |
基金天元 |
70.12% |
70.01% |
-0.11% |
-0.74% |
基金安瑞 |
60.03% |
60.00% |
-0.02% |
-0.95% |
基金兴科 |
66.48% |
66.65% |
0.17% |
-1.07% |
基金裕阳 |
63.76% |
64.38% |
0.62% |
-1.55% |
基金普润 |
64.16% |
64.84% |
0.68% |
-1.60% |
基金金鑫 |
66.87% |
67.69% |
0.82% |
-1.70% |
基金鸿飞 |
66.80% |
67.68% |
0.88% |
-1.77% |
基金同德 |
71.02% |
72.10% |
1.08% |
-1.89% |
基金景宏 |
69.01% |
72.10% |
1.09% |
-1.90% |
基金普丰 |
66.65% |
67.66% |
1.02% |
-1.90% |
基金久嘉 |
66.79% |
69.88% |
1.09% |
-1.94% |
基金天华 |
66.56% |
67.66% |
1.09% |
-1.98% |
基金金鼎 |
68.59% |
69.86% |
1.27% |
-2.12% |
基金景业 |
65.28% |
66.53% |
1.25% |
-2.15% |
基金鸿阳 |
70.02% |
73.53% |
1.51% |
-2.29% |
基金汉博 |
62.67% |
64.27% |
1.60% |
-2.53% |
基金科汇 |
67.02% |
68.70% |
1.68% |
-2.55% |
基金兴华 |
63.57% |
65.36% |
1.79% |
-2.70% |
基金景阳 |
64.66% |
66.47% |
1.81% |
-2.71% |
基金汉鼎 |
69.73% |
71.70% |
1.97% |
-2.78% |
基金通乾 |
62.35% |
64.23% |
1.89% |
-2.82% |
基金金盛 |
65.57% |
67.56% |
1.99% |
-2.88% |
基金兴安 |
66.59% |
68.66% |
2.07% |
-2.94% |
基金隆元 |
65.47% |
67.55% |
2.08% |
-2.96% |
基金景博 |
62.03% |
64.20% |
2.17% |
-3.10% |
基金兴业 |
64.16% |
66.42% |
2.26% |
-3.16% |
基金安久 |
65.98% |
68.60% |
2.62% |
-3.49% |
基金同盛 |
67.01% |
69.70% |
2.69% |
-3.54% |
基金裕华 |
66.87% |
69.69% |
2.81% |
-3.67% |
基金通宝 |
64.68% |
67.47% |
2.79% |
-3.68% |
基金汉盛 |
62.47% |
65.25% |
2.78% |
-3.70% |
基金科翔 |
66.80% |
69.68% |
2.88% |
-3.73% |
基金科讯 |
65.67% |
68.57% |
2.90% |
-3.77% |
基金兴和 |
63.47% |
66.35% |
2.88% |
-3.78% |
基金久富 |
68.69% |
71.69% |
3.00% |
-3.82% |
基金安信 |
60.13% |
63.01% |
2.89% |
-3.83% |
基金裕泽 |
63.25% |
66.32% |
3.08% |
-3.98% |
基金泰和 |
61.03% |
64.10% |
3.07% |
-4.00% |
基金金元 |
64.25% |
67.42% |
3.18% |
-4.06% |
基金金泰 |
64.25% |
67.42% |
3.18% |
-4.07% |
基金同智 |
63.47% |
68.35% |
4.88% |
-5.76% |
减持迹象 |
基金裕元 |
61.02% |
66.10% |
5.08% |
-5.98% |
基金汉兴 |
59.88% |
65.99% |
6.11% |
-7.02% |
加权平均 |
65.52% |
66.54% |
-0.84% |
-1.74% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 计算截至：04-11-12 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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