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 图一：近一季度基金平均仓位与指数走势对比图
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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周A股市场呈现震荡整理格局，在股指达到高点后总体呈现持续回调局面。几大蓝筹股表现疲弱，但市场上做多气氛仍然较强，以中集集团(资讯 行情 论坛)、中兴通讯(资讯 行情 论坛)等为代表的一批中盘蓝筹股频创新高，带动了不少市场人气。从基金的操作来看，上周基金明确地延续了前一周的小幅增仓态势，在多数基金仓位保持稳定的同时，部分
轻仓基金增仓显得更为坚决，这在一定程度上印证了基金对于市场的判断正在趋于乐观。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位达到54.60%，与前周可比的52.61%上升了2.00%，小幅增仓态势明显。封闭式基金的加权平均仓位由前周的，仓位增幅小于开放式基金。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，基金仓位变动仍然延续了前周的趋势，即部分轻仓的基金增仓坚决，而多数基金则保持持仓稳定。64只开放式基金中有10只增仓迹象明显，显示为减持的仅有金鹰优选一只基金。其中融通行业景气基金和中融行业基金增仓最为明显，仓位增幅达到了10%以上；而这两只基金在前一周同样显著增持，显示出加仓态度十分坚决。此外，上周增仓的基金还有长盛动态精选、大成蓝筹稳健、海富通收益、国泰金鹰等，从这一名单上不难看出轻仓的新基金仍然是增仓的主力，这与多数基金的仓位稳定形成了明显对比。
从上周市场情况来看，大幅普涨之后的回调初步显示出结构性分化的趋势。以中集集团、中兴通讯、伊利股份(资讯 行情 论坛)等为代表的二线蓝筹股继续表现强劲，频频创出股价新高。中小企业板块仍然走强，显示市场上做多气氛仍然较强。而从基金的角度看，持续两周的小幅增仓态势发出的明显信号是不少基金对底部的确认已经比较明确。虽然大盘股加速扩容等不利因素使得基金对后市仍然存有分歧，但在1400点以下下跌空间不大已基本得到认同。部分增仓态度坚决的基金则很可能把冲高后的震荡回调作为年内最佳的建仓时机。从基金可能参与的板块来看，虽然领涨的二线蓝筹股表现突出，但低价蓝筹股仍将是基金建仓的重点。同时，交通银行、中国石油等超级大盘股可能在两地市场同时上市将对股价结构产生重要影响，从国际化角度具备相对估值优势将越来越成为基金选股时的重要依据。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
基金名称 |
本周持仓
比例估计 |
上周持仓
比例估计 |
本周持仓
比例变动 |
本周持仓
净变动 |
增持状态 |
融通行业 |
49.66% |
38.75% |
10.91% |
11.01% |
增持迹象 |
中融行业 |
43.58% |
33.29% |
10.30% |
10.39% |
长盛动态 |
52.00% |
43.46% |
8.55% |
8.65% |
大成稳健 |
53.54% |
46.28% |
7.27% |
7.38% |
海富通收益 |
34.60% |
28.31% |
6.29% |
6.38% |
国泰金鹰 |
60.33% |
54.36% |
5.97% |
6.08% |
嘉实稳健 |
59.61% |
53.69% |
5.92% |
6.03% |
富国价值 |
47.53% |
41.65% |
5.89% |
5.99% |
国泰稳健 |
44.09% |
38.61% |
5.48% |
5.59% |
合丰周期 |
76.30% |
71.07% |
5.23% |
5.32% |
银河理财 |
40.48% |
35.63% |
4.85% |
4.95% |
仓位稳定 |
大成价值 |
62.01% |
57.94% |
4.07% |
4.18% |
融通新蓝筹 |
73.48% |
69.52% |
3.96% |
4.06% |
博时精选 |
58.68% |
55.00% |
3.68% |
3.79% |
海富通精选 |
61.17% |
58.08% |
3.09% |
3.20% |
银河稳健 |
62.34% |
59.41% |
2.93% |
3.03% |
天治增长 |
32.60% |
30.06% |
2.55% |
2.64% |
泰信策略 |
56.48% |
54.12% |
2.36% |
2.47% |
国泰精选 |
64.52% |
62.31% |
2.21% |
2.31% |
长城久泰 |
71.66% |
69.70% |
1.96% |
2.05% |
天同 180 |
78.28% |
76.41% |
1.87% |
1.94% |
景顺内需 |
54.95% |
53.15% |
1.80% |
1.91% |
招商平衡 |
41.37% |
39.67% |
1.70% |
1.81% |
申万精选 |
45.74% |
44.16% |
1.58% |
1.69% |
易方达 50 |
72.07% |
70.52% |
1.56% |
1.65% |
博时价值 |
80.00% |
78.47% |
1.53% |
1.61% |
宝康消费 |
67.87% |
66.46% |
1.41% |
1.51% |
合丰成长 |
59.07% |
57.78% |
1.29% |
1.39% |
招商先锋 |
45.48% |
44.24% |
1.24% |
1.35% |
嘉实增长 |
58.46% |
57.25% |
1.21% |
1.32% |
景顺股票 |
68.24% |
67.03% |
1.22% |
1.32% |
融通 100 |
73.28% |
72.06% |
1.21% |
1.30% |
宝康灵活 |
69.41% |
68.21% |
1.20% |
1.30% |
德盛稳健 |
54.52% |
53.38% |
1.14% |
1.24% |
易方达策略 |
66.57% |
65.47% |
1.10% |
1.20% |
博时裕富 |
75.52% |
74.56% |
0.96% |
1.04% |
德盛精选 |
33.89% |
33.00% |
0.89% |
0.98% |
华安 180 |
77.19% |
76.30% |
0.90% |
0.98% |
广发聚富 |
63.73% |
62.92% |
0.81% |
0.91% |
南方稳健 |
65.13% |
64.52% |
0.61% |
0.71% |
华宝策略 |
60.90% |
60.33% |
0.58% |
0.68% |
景顺平衡 |
39.83% |
39.31% |
0.51% |
0.62% |
嘉实服务 |
56.43% |
56.06% |
0.37% |
0.48% |
宝盈鸿利 |
68.76% |
68.41% |
0.34% |
0.44% |
鹏华 50 |
50.11% |
49.99% |
0.11% |
0.22% |
诺安平衡 |
41.27% |
41.40% |
-0.12% |
-0.02% |
招商股票 |
60.16% |
60.45% |
-0.29% |
-0.18% |
合丰稳定 |
73.47% |
73.81% |
-0.34% |
-0.25% |
巨田基础 |
49.73% |
50.15% |
-0.42% |
-0.31% |
荷银精选 |
41.76% |
42.31% |
-0.55% |
-0.44% |
长盛成长 |
69.45% |
70.24% |
-0.78% |
-0.69% |
普天收益 |
63.55% |
64.59% |
-1.04% |
-0.94% |
银华优势 |
50.26% |
51.35% |
-1.09% |
-0.98% |
长城久恒 |
53.21% |
54.48% |
-1.27% |
-1.16% |
融通成长 |
33.16% |
34.58% |
-1.42% |
-1.32% |
富国动态 |
59.89% |
61.36% |
-1.47% |
-1.36% |
鹏华成长 |
67.69% |
69.15% |
-1.46% |
-1.37% |
华夏成长 |
57.83% |
59.47% |
-1.64% |
-1.54% |
金鹰精选 |
62.60% |
64.30% |
-1.70% |
-1.60% |
易方达平稳 |
63.04% |
65.22% |
-2.18% |
-2.08% |
华安创新 |
62.64% |
65.59% |
-2.94% |
-2.85% |
嘉实成长 |
68.10% |
71.58% |
-3.49% |
-3.40% |
华夏回报 |
51.49% |
56.52% |
-5.03% |
-4.92% |
金鹰优选 |
60.59% |
66.09% |
-5.49% |
-5.39% |
减持迹象 |
加权平均 |
54.60% |
52.61% |
2.00% |
2.11% |
仓位稳定 |
*上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 数据截至：04-10-08 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
基金名称 |
本周持仓
比例估计 |
上周持仓
比例估计 |
本周持仓
比例变动 |
本周持仓
净变动 |
增持状态 |
基金普惠 |
67.42% |
64.23% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕阳 |
66.31% |
63.12% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
基金普润 |
69.65% |
66.47% |
3.18% |
3.28% |
基金安久 |
69.69% |
66.87% |
2.82% |
2.91% |
基金金盛 |
67.49% |
64.88% |
2.61% |
2.71% |
基金久嘉 |
67.54% |
65.35% |
2.18% |
2.28% |
基金鸿飞 |
67.54% |
65.35% |
2.18% |
2.28% |
基金汉兴 |
59.77% |
57.66% |
2.11% |
2.21% |
基金同益 |
64.21% |
62.12% |
2.09% |
2.19% |
基金汉博 |
66.43% |
64.34% |
2.09% |
2.19% |
基金融鑫 |
74.21% |
72.13% |
2.08% |
2.17% |
基金丰和 |
74.22% |
72.23% |
1.99% |
2.08% |
基金普华 |
68.67% |
66.70% |
1.97% |
2.07% |
基金金泰 |
65.34% |
63.44% |
1.91% |
2.01% |
基金景业 |
66.46% |
64.56% |
1.89% |
1.99% |
基金安信 |
65.35% |
63.48% |
1.87% |
1.97% |
基金汉鼎 |
72.03% |
70.25% |
1.77% |
1.86% |
基金汉盛 |
68.70% |
67.02% |
1.68% |
1.78% |
基金裕泽 |
69.86% |
68.60% |
1.26% |
1.36% |
基金银丰 |
68.75% |
67.53% |
1.23% |
1.32% |
基金天元 |
73.20% |
72.00% |
1.20% |
1.29% |
基金兴安 |
69.87% |
68.68% |
1.19% |
1.29% |
基金兴科 |
68.76% |
67.57% |
1.19% |
1.28% |
基金久富 |
69.87% |
68.70% |
1.17% |
1.26% |
基金普丰 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.21% |
基金通宝 |
68.77% |
67.66% |
1.11% |
1.20% |
基金鸿阳 |
73.21% |
72.10% |
1.11% |
1.20% |
基金隆元 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.18% |
基金安顺 |
65.44% |
64.36% |
1.08% |
1.18% |
基金开元 |
71.00% |
70.02% |
0.98% |
1.07% |
基金景博 |
64.34% |
63.41% |
0.93% |
1.03% |
基金兴和 |
68.79% |
67.86% |
0.93% |
1.02% |
基金同智 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
0.98% |
基金裕元 |
64.35% |
63.47% |
0.88% |
0.98% |
基金天华 |
66.57% |
65.70% |
0.87% |
0.97% |
基金科瑞 |
71.02% |
70.21% |
0.81% |
0.90% |
基金泰和 |
64.74% |
64.36% |
0.38% |
0.49% |
基金同德 |
73.30% |
73.01% |
0.29% |
0.38% |
基金同盛 |
72.20% |
72.03% |
0.18% |
0.27% |
基金科翔 |
68.88% |
68.77% |
0.11% |
0.20% |
基金景宏 |
70.00% |
70.02% |
-0.02% |
0.07% |
基金科汇 |
74.52% |
75.20% |
-0.68% |
-0.60% |
基金裕华 |
74.52% |
75.24% |
-0.72% |
-0.64% |
基金金元 |
67.87% |
68.71% |
-0.84% |
-0.75% |
基金景阳 |
66.77% |
67.65% |
-0.89% |
-0.79% |
基金景福 |
66.77% |
67.67% |
-0.90% |
-0.80% |
基金兴业 |
65.66% |
66.56% |
-0.91% |
-0.81% |
基金安瑞 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.81% |
基金裕隆 |
67.90% |
68.97% |
-1.07% |
-0.98% |
基金通乾 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-1.09% |
基金金鼎 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-1.09% |
基金兴华 |
67.97% |
69.70% |
-1.73% |
-1.64% |
基金科讯 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-1.73% |
基金金鑫 |
70.22% |
72.22% |
-2.00% |
-1.91% |
加权平均 |
68.21% |
67.40% |
0.80% |
0.90% |
仓位稳定 |
*封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 数据截至：04-10-08 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
  
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