2006年7月31日全球金融市场周报 日本

In a holiday shortened week, Tokyo's TOPIX Index shed 0.4% as investors worried about how far and fast the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, having abandoned its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) for the first time in six years last week. By sector, cyclicals such as machinery and steel underperformed while banks met with profit taking. Retail and rubber products which had been some of the worst performing sectors YTD outperformed last week.

Investor concerns were accentuated by comments from the OECD warning the Bank of Japan should put off raising interest rates again while the government tries to rein in its budget deficit (government debt has reached 140% of GDP - the highest of any developed country). The organisation also warned that the risks of deflation still remain if monetary policy is tightened too aggressively.

June nationwide department store sales were down 1.8% yoy, the third consecutive month of negative growth. The Department Store Association blamed bad weather and low temperatures, as well as tough base year effects. In fact, the retail sales data does not appear to accurately reflect the recovery in private consumption.

Retail sales have been consistently underperforming total nominal consumer spending on a GDP basis. The widening gap probably reflects the limited coverage of the retail sales survey, reflecting the retail industry's rapid structural change and also a shift by consumers towards services away from goods.

This an important point for stock selection - there are a number of speciality retail and service companies that are taking advantage of the recovery in Japan's private consumption, which may not be obvious from the top-down data.

1Q earnings results so far by major blue chip companies have been better than expected, such as Hoya, Shin-etsu Chemical and KDDI. There will be far more 1Q releases this week, which will likely dominate market direction. Technical indicators are showing some improvements eg margin losses seem to be bottoming out.

TSE data on outstanding long margin positions showed a reduction of some 20% in the 10 weeks to 14th July. Mitsubishi UFJ securities estimate a further 8-10% decline this week, which would take us back to levels last seen in the first week of Dec 05, when TOPIX was trading at levels similar to today.

上周东京第一市场指数跌 0.4%，前周日本央行六年来首次放弃零利率政策，投资者对央行的加息幅度和步伐大表关注。按类别分析，机械和钢铁等周期股表现欠佳，银行股则出现获利回吐。位居年初以来表现最劣行列的零售和橡胶股，上周表现却优于大市。

经合组织表示，当政府正设法控制预算赤字时（日本政府债务已高达本地生产总值之 140%），日本央行应再度暂缓加息，有关评论令投资者更感忧虑。该组织更警告谓，倘若日本加息过急，通缩风险将难以消除。

6月份全国百货公司销售额较去年同期下降1.8%，连跌三月。百货公司公会将倒退归咎于天气因素和去年基数效应。实际上，零售销售额数据似乎未能准确反映私人消费复苏情况。以国内生产总值衡量，零售销售额表现一直逊于名义消费开支总额。差距扩大甚可能显示零售销售额调查范围受局限，未能反映零售业出现的急速结构转变，以及消费重点从商品转向服务。这种现象反映选股相当重要，因为部分专门零售和服务公司正受惠于日本私人消费复苏，而有关情况却未获「由上而下」的数据反映。

迄今 Hoya、Shin-etsu Chemical及KDDI等主要蓝筹公司公布的第一季业绩都胜于预期。本周公布业绩的公司更多，应会左右大市去向。技术指标已略见改善，例如边际利润亏损已见否极泰来。东京证交所数据显示，截至7月14日止10个星期内的未平仓孖展好仓减少约两成。有证券行估计本周会再减少8%至10%，重返去年12月初与现时相若的水平。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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