2006年7月31日全球金融市场周报 环球新兴市场

Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

In Latin America, the Mexican IPC advanced 6.5% as expectations grew that Felipe Calderon, a conservative candidate, would soon be confirmed as the winner of the country's recent presidential election following weeks of wrangling over the result. Investors hope that Calderon will form a coalition government that is able to pass economic reforms to spur stronger economic growth.

Brazil's BOVESPA managed a more modest 0.5% gain as the country's central bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point to 14.75% - their lowest level in more than 20 years and the ninth successive cut since last September.

A USD 1.8 billion offer from Sadia, a food producer, to take over its smaller domestic rival, Perdigao, also provided an early boost to the Brazilian market, but sentiment reversed at the end of the week when Sadia withdrew its offer after being rejected by Perdigao's shareholders.

In Eastern Europe, meanwhile, hopes that US interest rates may soon peak helped boost banking stocks. Poland's WIG rose 3.4% and the Czech PX 50 gained 2.7%, but Hungary's BUX was 1.1% lower.

In Russia, high oil prices continued to provide support for the RTS, which ended the week 0.4% higher. Turkey's ISE National 100, meanwhile, rose 3.4% despite an unexpected interest rate increase as the Turkish central bank raised rates by another quarter point to 17.5% in an attempt to bring inflation back within targets set by the International Monetary Fund. The rise was the third rate increase in the last two months.

拉丁美洲方面，保守派候选人卡德隆胜出大选呼声日高，

墨西哥股市升 6.5%。投资者憧憬卡德隆可组成联合政府，通过经济改革来刺激经济增长。巴西股市微升0.5%，当地央行将利率调低半厘至14.75厘，乃20多年来最低位，亦是去年9月以来第九度减息。食品生产商Sadia出价18亿美元收购国内小型对手Perdigao，亦刺激上周初段巴西股市造好，但收购不获Perdigao股东接纳，Sadia撤回收购建议，拖累尾段股市下跌。

美国息口可望见顶，刺激东欧银行股走势。波兰股升 3.4%，捷克股市升2.7%，匈牙利股市则跌1.1%。俄罗斯方面，油价续为股市提供支持，收市升0.4%。土耳其股市更上升3.4%，土耳其央行突然将利率调高四分一厘至17.5%，希望令通胀率回落到国际

货币基金组织所订范围，但股市未受影响。

(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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