2006年7月3日全球金融市场周报：日本股市

　　Japan

　　In contrast to the falls experienced elsewhere in the region, Japan's TOPIX managed a 0.7% gain over the week. This was despite nervousness over comments from Toshihiko Fukui, the governor of the Bank of Japan, which revived concerns over an earlier than anticipated end to Japan's zero interest rate policy.

　　Markets drifted off on light volume at the beginning of the week, taking the lead from developments overseas. However, turnover value picked up on Thursday and Friday above the ￥2tr mark, sending both the Nikkei and Topix to close in positive territory for the second consecutive week.

　　BoJ governor Fukui remained under close scrutiny regarding his personal investment with jailed investor Murakami, but PM Koizumi voiced his support for Fukui against opposition party calls for his resignation. On monetary policy, Fukui said policy normalisation would be conducted "without delay, in many small steps, and slowly."

　　We do not anticipate material changes in monetary policy out of Fukui's personal involvement with the Murakami fund, and expect BoJ to end the Zero Interest Rate Policy this summer.

　　Orix JREIT was handed a penalty for poor transparency in real estate transactions with parent Orix. The TSE REIT index hit a year low on Wed at 1,536, but recovered to 1,628 on Fri, down just 1.2% for the week.

　　Real exports in May rose 2.7% mom, and the real trade surplus soared 25% mom after falling 10% in April. On average during April and May, annualised growth rate of real exports was 5.5% above the 1Q level, while real imports were 3.8% higher.

　　Two-thirds of Japanese exports are machinery and machinery parts, so this steady growth in exports should be reflecting robust demand for capex in the rest of the world. The growth of exports has been broadly based geographically; not only exports to Asia (+15%), the US (+21%) and Western Europe (+17%), but also exports to Russia (+83%), the Middle East (+33%) and Latin America (+31%) have been strong.

　　There are a number of important macro data releases next week, which we believe should give market some confidence in 1Q economic momentum.

　　(以上资料全部来源于JF Asset Management)

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