实录|余永定对话欧央行前行长特里谢，钱颖一加入群聊|钱颖一_新浪财经

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新冠疫情暴发以来，全球主要央行都采取了极度宽松的货币政策以推动经济复苏。形势危急之时，下猛药自然是不得已甚至是唯一的选择，但现在，或许是时候该正视这些政策所带来的后果了。

近期，在由中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）联合各组委会成员机构召开的第二届外滩金融峰会上，上海浦山新金融发展基金会会长余永定和被公认为最有经验的货币专家之一、欧央行原行长让-克洛德-特里谢，就全球货币政策、长期经济增长、中国复苏动力等一系列问题展开对话。作为当天会议的主持人，上海新金融研究院院长、清华大学经济管理学院原院长钱颖一也加入了这场对话。

这场国际对话集中传达了以下观点：

第一，为应对新冠疫情带来的经济衰退，各国出台极度宽松的货币政策是正确的选择。要先应对衰退，然后再思考过度宽松政策所带来的后果。

第二，极度宽松的货币政策不可能永久存在，当下不能只靠央行摆脱困局，政府、私人等部门也应发挥作用，帮助经济运转回归正常。

第三，从长远来看，发达经济体必须要提高潜在生产率和劳动生产率、解决收入不平等问题。

第四，与发达国家相比，中国还有较大的政策空间，在完成就业率的同时要关注新增就业质量。

第五，财政政策不必过度担心财政恶化、杠杆率提升等问题，要继续实施扩张性财政政策支持经济增长；中国央行也应该用更宽松的货币政策支持扩张性的财政政策，探索中国式的量化宽松政策。

以下为对话实录及完整版视频。

中文实录

钱颖一：我们今天的会议是浦山基金会的第四届年会。浦山基金会是上海新金融研究院在2016年发起的，为了纪念中国经济学家浦山。基金会理事长余永定教授早在上世纪80年代就在浦山教授的指导下进行研究。我们今天的第二场对话，余教授将对谈布鲁盖尔研究所主席、欧洲央行前行长让·克洛德·特里谢（Jean-ClaudeTRICHET）先生。特里谢先生和中国金融四十人论坛常务理事会主席陈元是老朋友了，也是最早加入外滩峰会国际顾问委员会的成员之一。我们非常期待这场跨越两大洲的对话。特里谢先生在法国，余教授在上海。

这里有一些问题想问余教授和特里谢先生。第一组问题是关于短期货币政策的问题。为了应对疫情大流行，很多国家都推出了大规模的刺激计划，采取了非常扩张性的货币政策，比如积极的降息。

首先请特里谢先生谈谈。你在3月份的讲话中提到，各国普遍降息可能会引起恐慌，因此没有必要。这场疫情的影响与2008年金融危机的影响有何不同？过去几个月，美国、欧洲和日本等发达经济体都推出了非常规的、高度扩张的货币政策。你是否同意这些措施？我们想听听您对此的看法。

TRICHET：谢谢。这是一个非常重要的问题，我想说，我们面临的这场全球危机，是第二次世界大战以来最严重的，可能也是人类历史上最严重的，在我看来，比上个世纪1929-1930年代的大萧条要严重得多。因此，世界各地央行的行动在我看来是适当的，与形势的严峻程度是相称的。

对于这些措施，我是肯定的。不仅欧洲央行，其他央行都采取了这样的政策。你知道，欧洲央行投入了1.35万亿欧元的巨额资金来应对疫情，在美国、中国和世界上其他国家也类似。这样做是对的。

第二，疫情暴露了发达经济体中一个自上次雷曼兄弟危机以来就存在的问题，即通货膨胀水平太低，潜在增长水平太低，实际中性均衡利率水平太低。这些因素导致了疫情之前高度宽松的货币政策长期实施。这使得全世界央行行长的任务变得更加复杂，如你所说，在发达经济体中尤其如此。

中国的情况不同。在所有发达经济体日本、美国、欧洲等都是如此。所以，这是一个非常非常重要的挑战，这是一个双重挑战，不是单一挑战。

钱颖一：所以，您认为这不是单一挑战，而是双重挑战，有鉴于此，您认为到目前为止，各国政策到底有没有达到预期的效果？

TRICHET：是的，在一定程度上，我们保护了自身免受剧烈萧条的影响。所以从这个角度来说，是的，目标已经实现。不过，我们仍处于危机之中，我们必须看事情将如何发展。我不得不说，在欧洲，疫情出现了新一波爆发，这是非常令人震惊的事情。我不对其他大陆发表意见，我看到美国也有这方面的问题。考虑到所有因素，我不得不说，中央银行的任务在我看来从来没有像现在这样尖锐、困难和艰巨，因为我们必须摆脱现在的局面，以及发达经济体当前非常不正常的经济行为。

钱颖一：谢谢。现在，我转向余教授。您曾说过，美国大幅增加货币发行，将赤字货币化，稀释了美元的价值，最终会引起通货膨胀。那么您对美国量化宽松政策的影响有什么评价？

余永定：说实话，四月份我看到所谓的无限量化宽松政策的时候，确实被吓到了。在五天左右的时间里，美联储就印发了5000亿美元的货币。这很可怕，应该说会在未来产生非常严重的后果。但是从另一方面来看，我完全同意特里谢先生和其他人所说的，美联储不得不采取这样的行动。

我认为所有主要的央行，包括日本央行、英国央行、美联储、还有欧洲央行现在做的事情都是正确的。因为现在我们面临的最大的困难是经济衰退，史上最严重的衰退，我们必须先解决这个问题，然后再去考虑后果。当我年轻的时候，我往往会想得很长远，但随着年纪大了，反而会更加关注眼前的事情。

钱颖一：所以你们都同意，认为这种很不寻常的、扩张性的货币政策是绝对有必要的，对不对？不仅仅是美国，全世界的政府都做了正确的事情，对吗？好的，所以我们现在在这点上达成了一致。我转向第二组关于长期的问题。从短期来看，我们都同意这个政策是必要的。那么长期的货币政策呢？

美元指数自4月以来持续下跌，美联储在8月提出了平均通胀目标框架。美联储在9月会议上表示，美国的货币政策将在很长一段时间内继续保持扩张性，利率将在2023年前保持在零附近。这是一个较长的期限。那么，美元的过度供应会对国际货币体系和全球经济产生什么样的影响呢？我先请特里谢先生发言。您能不能对美国在较长时期内保持极度扩张的货币政策进行评论？以及您如何看待这种无限制的量化宽松举措对欧元、对人民币、对国际货币体系的中长期影响？

TRICHET：嗯，又是一个非常好的问题。首先，我认为我们正处于一个过渡时期。我不认为我们可以永远实行这种程度的宽松货币政策，因为这只会意味着我们所有的经济都没有正常运行，所有经济体一直会濒临通缩的风险，因此中央银行需要永远维持难以置信的宽松政策。所以我的工作假设是，我们将走出这种局面。

现在，我们确实不只是依靠中央银行。很明显，如果我们维持现在这种异常低的通胀水平，对未来通胀的预期也锚定在异常低的水平，这是因为我们的经济运作不正确。而这取决于政府，取决于议会采取的措施，也取决于私营部门。因此，我期望在所有国家，除中央银行以外的其他部门，也能发挥作用。这将减轻央行的负担。目前负担主要是由各国央行承担，这是很不正常的。所以我们将拭目以待。但我不相信任何一家央行认为目前的情况是正常的，可以长期持续。

钱颖一：所以它是过渡性的。这是一个过渡的时间段，这是一个不正常的时期。再回到你提到的双重问题的概念。在疫情之前，各国经济就已经面临问题，至今没有解决。因此，从长远来看，我们需要把所有这些问题一起解决。

TRICHET：是的，这是绝对必要的。当然，各国，特别是发达经济体，必须提高潜在增长率，提升劳动生产率。因为自上次危机以来，劳动生产率下降非常迅速。综合考虑这些因素之后，我还想说，我们需要解决收入不平等问题，这也是我们问题的一部分。在许多发达经济体中，平均工资的增长太慢了。

所以我们有很多问题，这是一个多维度的问题。如果我们不解决所有这些问题，那么最终我们将迎来一场灾难，因为到那时，正如你所说的那样，这些情形将永远持续下去，那么问题就严重了。所以我很有信心，我相信我们会找到摆脱这种局面的方法。而且我认为，当发达经济体的央行认为自己可以把通胀预期稳固在2%的水平时，我们就会松一口气，这很正常。

如你所知，2%是日本银行、美联储、欧洲央行、英格兰银行的目标通胀水平，或许也是中国的目标水平，因为当我和我的中国朋友讨论时，他告诉我，2%也是中国的目标。所以刚才我提到了五种货币，因为他们是SDR货币篮子的组成货币。

钱颖一：谢谢你，现在请余教授发言，讲讲你对美国货币政策对全球经济影响的看法。我也想听听您对中国宏观经济政策的看法，您提到中国未来的货币政策或许应趋向于扩张性，以配合扩张性的财政政策。这些方面我都想听听您的看法。

余永定：我认为，首先，我们必须祝贺中国政府，易纲先生和刘昆先生做得非常好，因为今年，中国的增长率将是2%左右，与其他国家相比，这是了不起的事情。

但我来这里不只是为了说好听话的。我觉得中国可以做得更好。比如说，上个季度中国的增长率是4.9%。对不对？根据计算很容易发现，如果中国想让年增长率达到2%这样的水平。那么第四季度中国的增长率应该是5.4%左右。这并不是很难。但是如果中国想要让增长率达到2.5%，那么在第四季度，中国的增长率应该是7%左右。这是有可能的，但是可能性不大。

而即使在理想情况下，中国能把增长率达到2.5%以上，我认为这还不够好。至少有两个问题。第一，就业岗位创造，根据官方统计，情况非常好，今年新增了900万个就业机会。我们已经完成了就业目标的99.8%左右。

我想强调一下新增就业质量的重要性。还有劳动生产率的问题，创造就业岗位不应该以牺牲劳动生产率为代价。我们也看到农民工进城的增长率实际上是在下降的，很多北大、清华的毕业生都想在居民社区街道中找工作。我认为这是不对的。所以我想说的是，创造就业岗位应该建立在经济增长的基础上。如果没有适度增长，就无法完成创造就业的目标，这是其一。

第二是中国的财政状况。根据财政部的数据，今年中国的一般预算收入应该是21万亿人民币左右。预算赤字应该是3.67万亿人民币左右,占GDP的3.6%，这意味着今年中国的名义增长率应该是5.4%，这是非常容易计算的。而我们面临的问题是，今年我们实现2.5%增长的可能性不大，理想情况下是2%。

而我认为GDP平减指数大概是1%。所以总共(名义增长率)不到3%。我觉得这对中国来说不是很好。所以获得21万亿的收入是不太可能的。

因为财政收入由当前增长决定，而增长率太低了。所以财政部面临两难选择。一方面，如果继续实施扩张性财政政策来支持经济增长, 财政状况就会进一步恶化。另一方面，如果不想继续实施扩张性财政政策，试图减少政府支出，那么增长率就会下降。这会形成一个恶性循环。

因此，这对于中国财政决策者来说是非常严峻的挑战。我的观点是，我们只能两害相权取其轻。我并不那么担心财政状况恶化、杠杆率升高等等。重要的是发展。我完全同意邓小平的名言，发展才是硬道理。

因此，经济增长很重要，非常重要。中国应该实施更多的扩张性财政政策来刺激经济，尤其是支持基础设施投资。然后，中国人民银行应该实施更多的扩张性货币政策来支持扩张性财政政策。如果这样做的话，我认为中国今年可以实现更高的增长率，高于2.5％。

钱颖一：所以您的建议非常清楚。首先，应该实施更多的扩张性财政政策。其次，为此需要更强有力的扩张性货币政策来提供支持。

余永定：我认为可以做的更多。中国人民银行可以向美国学习，实施中国式的量化宽松，或者具有中国特色的量化宽松政策。

钱颖一：好。具有中国特色的量化宽松政策。非常好。非常感谢您。对了，本次对话需要到此为止了。非常感谢你们两位。感谢特里谢先生和余教授进行的发人深省的讨论。我们今天的对话就到此为止。谢谢。再见。

英文实录

钱颖一：Our conference today is also the Fourth Annual Conference of the Pushan Foundation. The Pushan Foundation was launched by the Shanghai Finance Institute in 2016, in memory of the Chinese economist Pushan, Professor Yu Yongding, the chairman of the foundation, was under professor Pushan’s supervision for his research as early as in the 1980s. Our second dialogue today will feature Professor Yu and Mr.Jean-Claude Trichet, chairman of Bruegel Institute, and former president of the European Central Bank, Mr. Trichet, and the China Finance 40 Forum Chairman Chen Yuan have long been friends. And he is also among the first to join the Bund Summits International Advisory Committee. We are very much look forward to this conversation across the continent. Mr. Trichet is in France, and Professor Yu is here in Shanghai.

Here are some questions for both Professor Yu and Mr. Trichet. The first set of questions is about the short term or short run monetary policy. In response to COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have rolled out massive stimulus plans, adopted very expansionary monetary policies, such as aggressive interest rate cuts.

Let me first turn to Mr. Trichet. You mentioned in your speech in March, that acoordinated interest rate cut could induce a panic and wasn t warranted. How is the pandemic impact different from that of the financial crisis in 2008. In the last few months, developed economies such as that of the US, Europe and Japan have all introduced unconventional, highly expansionary monetary policies. Do you agree with such measures? We d like to hear your thoughts on this.

Trichet：Thank you, thank you very much. It s a very, very important question, of course, first, I would say these crisis we have to cope with at a global level is the worst, certainly, since World WarTwo, probably the worst in the history of humankind, and certainly in my opinion, much worse than what happened in 1929-1930 in the last century. So the dimension of the action of the central banks all over the world seems to be appropriate and commensurate to the drama which was looming.

So you see, I am positive on the measures which were taken, not only on the measures taken by the ECB itself, and you know, which kind of gigantic action took place in Europe with a 1,350,000,000,000 euros to cope with the pandemic, but also in the US, in China and in all the countries in the world. So, that s for sure.

Second, the problem we have with the pandemic is that it comes on top in the advanced economy of a problem which was existing since the last crisis of Lehman brotherand the like, namely, the fact that the level of inflation was too low, the level of potential growth too low, the level of real neutral equilibrium interest rates much too low. So all these has created before the pandemic that cumulation of highly accommodative monetary policy. And of course, these complicated considerably the task on the governors of central banks all over the world, and particularly, as you say, in the advanced economy, it was not the case in China. It was is the case in all advanced economies Japan, the US,Europe and the like, so, again, a very, very important challenge, which is adual challenge, not a single challenge.

钱颖一：So you re seeing this is not one challenge or in a double jeopardy in a situation, in view of this, do you think that policies so far have achieved the expected results or not?

Trichet：Yes, to the extent that we protected ourselves from dramatic depression. So in that standpoint, yes, of course, it is. The goal has been achieved. Still, of course, we are in the middle of the crisis, we have to see where we go, I have to say that in Europe, in particular, the fact that we have a new wave of pandemic is something which is extremely alarming. I don t pronounce on other continents, I see that we have problems also in the US in this respect. But all taken into account, I have to say that the task of the central bankers never seemed to me to be as acute,difficult and demanding, as in the present case, because we will have to get out of this dramatic situation, including, of course, the very abnormal behavior of advanced economy in the present period.

钱颖一：Thank you.Now, I turned to Professor Yu. You said that the United States has significantly increased currency issuance and monetized its deficit, which diluted the value of the US dollar, and will eventually cause inflation. So what s your assessment of the impact of quantitative easing in the US?

余永定：Thank you for this question. To be honest, in April, I was really horrified by this so called unlimited QE,actually, in just five days, Federal Reserve printed the 500 billion USdollars, not really horrible, the consequence will be dialed in the future, but on the other hand, I entirely agree with Mr. Trichet and many others. This is an action the Federal Reserve has to take.

I think all the major central banks, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of Europe, are doing the right thing. Because now the biggest challenge we are facing is recession, the worst recession, we have to deal with the first, then we can think about the consequence later, when I was young, I tend to think for the long run, but then grow older, I tend to think in short term.

钱颖一：So you agree with each other, you think this is absolutely necessary for this very unusual, expansionary monetary policy, right? And not only the US, but the governments around the world toactually did the right thing, is that right? Okay, so we have agreement nowhere. I turned to the second set of questions about long run. In a short run,we all agree the policy is necessary. Now how about the long run monetary policies?

The USdollar index has been falling since April, and the Fed put forward the average inflation targeting framework in August. In its September meeting, the Fed indicated that the US monetary policy will continue to be expansionary for along time, and the interest rates will remain near zero through 2023. This is a longer term. So what impact will the excess dollar supply have on the International Monetary System and the global economy? I will first turn to Mr.Trichet. Can you comment on the extremely expansionary monetary policies maintained by the US for a longer term? And what do you think of this impact of unlimited quantitative easing moves on the Euro, on the RMB, and on the International Monetary System in the medium to long term? Please.

Trichet：Well, again, a very good question.First, I think that we are in a transitory period. I don t tell us that we can eternally have this level of accommodating monetary policies, because it would only mean that all our economies are not behaving properly, that they are permanently very close to the possible materialization of a deflationary risk,and that it calls the central banks to continue to be eternally, incredibly accommodating. So my working assumption is that we will get out of that situation.

Now, it s true that it does not rely upon the central banks only. It s clear that if we have these very abnormally low levels of inflation, and this very abnormally low level of anchoring of future expectations of inflation, it is because the functioning of our economy is not correct. And that depends on governments, on parliament s on the measures they have taken, and also on the private sector.So I expect that the other partners, the partners, other than the central banks, will do their job in all countries in all continents. And that will alleviate the burden, which presently is very abnormally on the central bank,only in some respect. So we will see what happens. But I don t trust that any central bank sees the present situation as normal, and as a sustainable long term situation.

钱颖一：So it is transitory. This is a transitional time period, this is a not normal period. And back to the notion you mentioned about dual problem. And before the pandemic, already, the economies are facing the face the problems that not addressed now. So therefore, that in the longer term, we need to address all of these issues together.

Trichet：Yes, indeed, it s absolutely necessary. And of course, you have to get, and I m speaking particularly of the advanced economies, better level, of growth potential, better level of productivity progress, because they have been going down very, very rapidly since the last crisis, a better level, all taken into account of the, I would say, fight against inequalities, because it s also part of our problem, that the level of wages and salaries increases at an average is too low in many advanced economies.

So we have a lot of problems, it s a multi-dimensional issue. And in case we don t solve all those issues, then we will have an ultimate catastrophe, because at the time,it continues and goes on eternally, as you said, then we have a big problem. SoI am confident, I trust that we will find out ways to get out of that situation.

And I take it that it is normal for the central banks of the advanced economy, to say, we will be relieved when we have solidly anchored our inflation expectations at the level of 2%,which, as you know, are the terms of reference for Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the ECB, Bank of England, and if I dare say, also of China, because when I discussed with my friend, he recently told me, well, 2% is also something we have in mind in China. So I mentioned five currencies, because they are in the basket of the SDR, those five currencies that are issued by those five central banks.

钱颖一：Thank you. Now I turn to Professor Yu,in addition, on your thoughts on the impact of the US monetary policy on theglobal economic land scape, I also like to hear from you about China s macroeconomic policy, you mentioned that China s future monetary policy maytend to be expansionary in order to coordinate with expansionary fiscal policy.So all this I like to hear your thoughts.

余永定：I think, firstly, we have to congratulate the Chinese government, and Mr. Yi Gang and Mr. Liu Kun for their very good job, because probably this year, China s growth rate will be something like 2%, that s something marvelous compared with other countries.

But I m not coming here to really to say some nice words to them. Okay. I think China can do an even better job. For example, last quarter China s growth rate is 4.9%.Right? According to the envelope calculation it is very easy to find that if China wants to get the growth rate something like a 2%. So the fourth quarter China s growth rate be something like a 5.4%. Not is something not very difficult to get. But if China wants to get the growth rate to go 2.5%, then in the fourth quarter, China s growth rate should be something like 7%. Which is possible, but not very likely.

And here, even China can get the growth rate above 2.5%, ideally, but I don t think that s good enough. There are at least two questions. Number one, job creation,according to official statistic, the situation is very good.And this year, 9 million new jobs. And we have already finished something like 99.8% of this target.

But I have some doubt about this statistic. Because there s a question of the quality of job creation, it is not that difficult in China to hire more workers to do less work. Right? So I would like to emphasize the importance of the quality of the job creation. And how about the labor productivity？the result of the job creation should not at the expense of labor productivity. And also we see the growth rate formigrant workers into cities actually decreasing, and lots of graduates from Peking University and Tsinghua University, they are trying to find jobs in a for social work in neighborhood.

I think that s not right. So what I m trying to say that the job creation should based on economic growth. Without decent economic growth, we should not be able to accomplish the target of job creation, this is one thing. Second is China s fiscal position. According to the Ministry of Finance, this year, China s general budgeted revenue should be something like 21 trillion RMB, 21 trillion.

Budget deficit should be something like 3.67 trillion RMB. So this accounted for 3.6% of GDP,which implies that China’s nominal growth rate should be for this year 5.4%,nominal GDP growth 5.4%. It s very easy to calculate. And we are facing problems, because as I said, ideally, this year we can achieve growth rate something like 2.5 ,s not very likely, ideally 2%. And I think the GDP deflator something like 1%. So in total less than 3%. I think that is not really good for China. So get a revenue of 21 trillion is not very likely.

Because revenue is a function of the current growth, so the growth rate is too low. So Minister of Finance is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, if you continue to use expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth, then the fiscal position would be worsening. If you don t want to continue expansionary fiscal policy, you try to reduce government expenditure, then the growth rate will fall. It will form sort of avicious circle.

So this is very serious challenge for Chinese fiscal authority. My view is that we have to choose a less evil. So I don t care too much about the worsening of the fiscal position, the leverage ratio,so on so forth. The important thing is growth. So I entirely agree this famous maxim by Deng Xiaoping, growth is the hard truth.

So growth is important, extremely important. So China should use more expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate economy, especially support the infrastructure investment. And then People s Bank of China should use more expansionary monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policy. By doing this, I think China this year can get even higher growth, higher than 2.5%.

钱颖一：So your recommendation is very clear. More expansionary fiscal policy, No.1. No.2, to accommodate that needs stronger expansionary monetary policy.

余永定：I even want to, to go further. What? People’s Bank of China can learn from United States to implement a sort of Chinese QE or QE with Chinese characteristics.

钱颖一：OK.QE with Chinese characteristics. Very good. So, thank you very much. We have to stop here by the way. Thank you so much for both. Thank you both, Mr. Trichet and Professor Yu for the very stimulating and thoughtful discussions. And we have to stop here. Thank you. Bye-bye.

第二届外滩金融峰会

为深入研判疫情对全球经济格局的影响，把脉新经济发展机遇，力争变局中开新局，2020年10月23-25日，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）联合各组委会成员机构在上海召开第二届外滩金融峰会。

峰会坚持“非官方”、“国际化”、“专业化”定位，聚焦金融开放、金融科技、资产管理等议题，通过高水平的思想碰撞与观点交锋，分享真知灼见，以对话推动共识，以共识推动合作，为建设开放型世界经济提供高质量的智力支持，助力上海国际金融中心建设再出发。

为保障可持续发展，外滩金融峰会设立组委会，组委会是峰会的最高决策机构。峰会组委会主席由十二届全国政协副主席、中国金融四十人论坛常务理事会主席陈元担任，执行主席由中国金融四十人论坛常务理事、上海新金融研究院理事长屠光绍担任。