特斯拉降价,是一次电车市场的衰退压力测试 Tesla's price cut is a recessionary stress test for the tram market

特斯拉降价,是一次电车市场的衰退压力测试 Tesla's price cut is a recessionary stress test for the tram market
2023年01月16日 14:51 富途牛牛

电动车行业在近十年高歌猛进,但在在2022年,电动车行业的龙头公司特斯拉股价已经大跌。年末,特斯拉全年销售量不及预期,并在衰退预期强烈的背景下开启价格战。行业分析人士认为,测试电车市场是否衰退的真正测试已经来了。

与当时的互联网行业一样,电动汽车行业也拥一些龙头公司,别如特斯拉。龙头公司被市场视为长期的赢家,他们穿越行业和宏观经济的周期,获得长期的行业地位。但是和其他任何行业一样,电车行业也有众多的追随者,这些追随者的命运取决于行业衰退和宏观经济衰退的程度。

特斯拉首先在中国大幅降价,然后在1月13日在美国和欧洲也宣布降价。

古根海姆证券公司(Guggenheim Securities)的Ronald Jesikow等分析师表示,这可能会使特斯拉的利润率低于华尔街共识的25%,并从特斯拉的所有竞争对手那里榨干利润。但像Wedbush分析师Dan Ives这样的乐观主义者认为,在宏观不确定性的情况下,启动电动汽车转型是正确的、积极的举措。

Dan Ives说:“在互联网兴起的时代,很多公司都没能成功。对于一个处于起步阶段的行业来说,在严重衰退的情况下,对于某些公司来说,是没有压力测试的。”

在美国,大多数经济学家和首席执行官认为今年可能会出现衰退,尽管上周的市场上涨可能反映出投资者前景开始发生变化,更多人相信经济的“软着陆”说法。

穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家Mark Zandi预测称,在经济增长不会完全转为负增长的情况下,经济将出现长达数月的“放缓”。这两种情况都可能会对汽车销售造成总体影响,去年是美国近十年来最糟糕的一年,还是一些汽车高管现在对反弹略感信心,尽管汽车制造商的电动汽车前景在短期内变得更加谨慎。但如果经济对目前放缓的通胀做出积极反应,那么这两种情况都可能过于悲观。

特斯拉的2023年如同亚马逊和Ebay的2000年?

如果经济衰退发生,并不一定意味着电动汽车销量会下降。去年,大多数车型在美国和亚洲的销量都大幅增长。更多的问题是,电动汽车公司的增长速度是否足以继续增加就业岗位,以及特斯拉以外的公司,能否在投资者预期盈利时盈利,或者在他们为初创企业亏损筹集的资金耗尽之前盈利。

亚马逊和eBay等互联网公司,在2000年进入2001年时所遭遇的情况一样。当时互联网相关的公司票正遭遇抛售,但与此同时,网络公司的收入仍在快速增长,2001年至2003年间,注定要生存下来的业务开始盈利。

特斯拉、Fisker和Lucid等电动汽车公司去年也大幅下跌。特斯拉2022年下跌了65%,Fisker同期下跌了54%,Lucid下跌了82%。当时和现在一样,像今天的电动汽车制造商Lordstown Motors、法拉第未来和卡诺(Canoo)这样的实力较弱的企业,正通过削减成本或从投资者那里筹集更多资金,在经济放缓即将到来之际,争先恐后地避免现金耗尽。

电车市场也一样,车辆销售在增长。2022年,中国的电动汽车销量仍在增长,电动汽车在美国的销量增长了52%。年底,电动汽车占美国轻型汽车市场的6%,而2000年末,电动汽车只占美国零售额的1%。

纽约AXS Investments首席执行官Greg Bissuk表示:“我们关注的是资产负债表稳定性和筹集更多资本的能力的结合,我们认为这将是艰难的,特别是中端电动汽车制造商。”

对于电动汽车制造商来说,经济衰退可能带来的影响是增长放缓,而不是整体经济在低迷时期经历的负增长,因为新技术不断获得市场份额。

CFRA Research分析师Garrett Nelson表示,最好的电动汽车制造商仍然是特斯拉,认为今年股市反弹很快。

Dan Ives表示,尽管该公司在1月25日发布第四季度盈利报告时,仍预计将在2022年底产生约40亿美元的现金流,而在第三季度末已获得约210亿美元的资金流,但该公司不存在现金消耗的危险。

那些还在烧钱的电动车企如何创越周期?

像Lucid、Rivian和Fisker这样的初创电动车企,在接下来会经历高风险时刻。特斯拉的降价可能会给他们带来问题:在竞争对手宣布这一消息后,菲斯克的股价下跌了近10%,因为特斯拉此举使Model Y的价格接近Fisker Ocean的价格,这款车的价格中位数为5万美元。

Rivian拥有最多的现金,截至第三季度末,其短期投资为133亿美元。Fisker拥有8.29亿美元现金,Lucid拥有38.5亿美元。这三家公司仍在烧钱,是否有足够的资金来度过经济衰退成为问题。在截至9月的12个月里,菲斯克公司亏损约4.8亿美元的现金流,并投资了另外2.2亿美元,这意味着如果亏损和投资不放缓,其现金将在一到两年内耗尽。

而现法拉第未来那样的公司,没有产品上市,现金流一直很紧张,在行业增速减缓时期,存活尤为艰难。Garrett Nelson说:“他们有一个商业计划,但没有生意,他们得到了荒谬的资金。在我们看来,会看到更多的破产,但市场会恢复平衡。但很难想象我们已经看到了底部。”

需要注意的是,即便现在头部电动车的股价已经接近底部,在其顶部买入的投资者可能会需要很长很长的时间才能获利。以互联网泡沫破裂为例,亚马逊从2002年的低点开始上涨,到2008年上涨了十倍,但直到2010年才超越1999年的高点。

编辑/lydia

The electric car industry has grown by leaps and bounds in the past decade, but the share price of Tesla, Inc., the leading company in the electric car industry, has plummeted in 2022. At the end of the year, Tesla, Inc. 's annual sales fell short of expectations and started a price war against a backdrop of strong recession expectations. Industry analysts believe that the real test of whether the streetcar market is in recession has come.

Like the Internet industry at that time, the electric vehicle industry also had some leading companies, such as Tesla, Inc.. Leading companies are seen by the market as long-term winners, and they gain long-term industry status through industry and macroeconomic cycles. But like any other industry, the streetcar industry has many followers whose fate depends on the extent of the industry recession and macroeconomic recession.

Tesla, Inc. first cut prices sharply in China, and then announced price cuts in the United States and Europe on January 13.

Analysts such as Ronald Jesikow of Guggenheim Securities say this could make Tesla, Inc. 's profit margin below the 25 per cent consensus on wall street and drain profits from all of Tesla, Inc. 's competitors. But optimists like Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, believe that in the face of macro uncertainty, starting the transformation of electric vehicles is the right and positive move.

"in the era of the rise of the Internet, a lot of companies have failed," Dan Ives said. For an industry in its infancy, there are no stress tests for some companies in a severe recession. "

In the US, most economists and chief executives believe there could be a recession this year, although last week's market rally may reflect a change in the investor outlook, with more people believing in a "soft landing" for the economy.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Corporation Analytics (Moody's Analytics), predicts that the economy will experience a "slowdown" for several months if economic growth does not turn completely negative. Both scenarios are likely to have an overall impact on car sales, and last year was the worst in the US in nearly a decade, or some car executives are now slightly confident of a rebound, although carmakers' electric car prospects have become more cautious in the short term. But if the economy reacts positively to the current slowdown in inflation, both may be too pessimistic.

Tesla, Inc. 's 2023 is like the year 2000 of Amazon.Com Inc and Ebay.

If a recession occurs, it does not necessarily mean that electric car sales will decline. Sales of most models rose sharply in the United States and Asia last year. The more question is whether electric car companies are growing fast enough to continue to create jobs, and whether companies other than Tesla, Inc. can make money when investors expect to make a profit, or before the money they raise for start-up losses runs out.

Internet companies such as Amazon.Com Inc and eBay experienced the same situation when they entered 2001 in 2000. Internet-related corporate tickets were being sold at the time, but at the same time, Internet companies' revenues were still growing rapidly, and businesses destined to survive began to turn a profit between 2001 and 2003.

Electric car companies such as Tesla, Inc., Fisker and Lucid also fell sharply last year. Tesla, Inc. fell 65% in 2022 and 54% in the same period. Then, as now, weaker companies such as today's electric carmakers Lordstown Motors, Faraday Future and Canoo were scrambling to avoid running out of cash by cutting costs or raising more money from investors in the run-up to an economic slowdown.

The same is true of the tram market, where vehicle sales are growing. In 2022, electric vehicle sales in China are still growing, with electric vehicle sales in the United States growing by 52%. At the end of the year, electric vehicles accounted for 6% of the u.s. light vehicle market, compared with only 1% of u.s. retail sales at the end of 2000.

Greg Bissuk, chief executive of AXS Investments in New York, said: "We are focused on the combination of balance sheet stability and the ability to raise more capital, which we think will be difficult, especially for mid-range electric car manufacturers."

For electric carmakers, the impact of the recession is likely to be slower growth, not the negative growth experienced by the economy as a whole during the downturn, as new technologies continue to gain market share.

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research, said that the best electric car maker is still Tesla, Inc., who thinks the stock market has rebounded quickly this year.

Dan Ives said that although it still expected to generate about $4 billion in cash flow by the end of 2022 when it released its fourth-quarter earnings report on January 25, and had received about $21 billion at the end of the third quarter, it was not in danger of running out of cash.

How do the electric car companies that are still burning money create the cycle?

Electric car startups such as Lucid, Rivian and Fisker will experience high-risk moments. Tesla, Inc. 's price cut could cause problems for them: Fisk's share price fell nearly 10% after competitors announced the news, as Tesla, Inc. 's move brought the price of Model Y close to that of Fisker Ocean, with a median price of $50, 000.

Rivian has the most cash, with short-term investments of $13.3 billion at the end of the third quarter. Fisker has $829 million in cash and Lucid has $3.85 billion. The three companies are still burning money, and it is questionable whether they have enough money to weather the recession. Fisk lost about $480 million in cash flow and invested another $220 million in the 12 months to September, meaning it will run out of cash within a year or two if losses and investments do not slow.

Companies like Faraday's future have no products on the market and their cash flow has been tight, making it particularly difficult to survive in a period of slowing industry growth. "they have a business plan, but they have no business, and they get ridiculous funding," Garrett Nelson said. In our view, we will see more bankruptcies, but the market will regain balance. But it's hard to imagine that we've seen the bottom. "

It is important to note that even if the share price of the head electric car is close to the bottom, it may take a long time for investors to buy at the top to make a profit. Take the bursting of the dotcom bubble as an example. Amazon.Com Inc rose from a low in 2002 to a tenfold increase in 2008, but did not surpass the 1999 high until 2010.

Edit / lydia

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