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新年前夕，德国总理格哈特•施罗德(Gerhard
Schroeder)向全国发表讲话，他不同寻常地建议:
德国同胞应该以积极购物迎接2004年。他说:“国家的经济命运大部分掌握在你们手中。”其实，他也许是在白费口舌。
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When
Gerhard Schroeder addressed the nation on New Year's eve, he had
some unusual advice. His fellow citizens, he said, should start
2004 with some serious shopping: "The fate of the economy
largely lies in your hands." He might as well have been
talking to a wall.
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捷孚凯(GfK)市场研究机构上周公布的调查结果显示，德国消费者信心指数在去年下半年轻微反弹后，又出现回落。随后，政府于上周五公布了疲软的12月份零售额数据。
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A
survey published last week by the GfK market research institute
showed consumer sentiment in Germany had fallen again after a
slight rebound in the second half of last year. This was followed
by the publication of dismal December retail sales figures last
Friday.
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这是个老问题了。私人消费连续两年停滞增长，接着在2002年出现下降。实际上，自上世纪90年代两德统一引发的消费热潮结束以来，家庭消费状况从未真正复苏过。在过去十年的大部分时间内，德国的消费水平一直落后于美国。
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The
problem is not new. After stagnating for two years, private
consumption fell in 2002. In fact, households never really
recovered from the reunification- induced boom of the early 1990s,
with spending lagging behind the US for much of the decade.
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另一方面，德国人收入中储蓄的部分却越来越多，2002年德国人的储蓄率达10.5%，几乎是美国当年水平的三倍。
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Germans,
on the other hand, have been putting an ever-larger share of their
income aside, with savings rates reaching 10.5 per cent in 2002,
almost three times the US level that year.
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一些偶尔来德国的人会认为，吝啬是德国人的典型特征，这种想法也许可以谅解。几乎在所有生活领域，节俭都被视为一种美德，只有汽车消费除外，因为汽车的价格和性能显示一个人的社会地位。
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Occasional
visitors could be forgiven for thinking parsimony is a typically
German trait. With the exception of cars - whose price and
performance define one's social standing - in almost all areas of
life penny-pinching is considered a virtue.
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周六早晨，你顺路到德国成功的食品折扣店Aldi或Lidl去看看，那里的停车场上肯定停着几辆保时捷(Porsche)或奔驰(Mercedes)。去年，Saturn推出的市场营销广告“节约就是酷”在德国大获成功。Saturn是德国最大的零售集团麦德龙(Metro)旗下的电子消费品子公司。
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Drop
by Aldi or Lidl, the successful food discounters, on a Saturday
morning and there are bound to be a few Porsches and Mercedes in
the car park. Last year's greatest marketing success was the
"thrift is cool" campaign run by Saturn, the consumer
electronics arm of Metro, Germany's largest retail group.
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“就连那些根本不必存钱的人也养成一种买便宜货的心态，”曼海姆市场心理研究院主管盖特•古特雅尔(Gert
Gutjahr)说，“我把这种现象称为‘声援型’购物。这是他们满足其社会良知的一种方式。”
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"Even
those who really do not need to be saving any money are developing
a bargain-hunting mentality," says Gert Gutjahr, head of the
Institute for Market Psychology in Mannheim. "I call it
solidarity-shopping. It is a way to appease their social
conscience."
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但对经济学家来说，节俭与民族性无关，而是一种理性的表现。德国与欧洲其它国家不同，由于薪水的上涨被税收和社会保障支出的上升所抵消，可支配收入在过去10年始终停滞不前。在欧盟15国中，如今德国的人均收入排在第11位。
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For
economists, however, frugality is not about national character but
rationality. Unlike the rest of Europe, disposable income in
Germany has stagnated in the past 10 years as wage increases were
offset by rises in tax and social security contributions. Today
Germany ranks 11 out of the 15 European Union states in terms of
income per capita.
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从上世纪90年代中期起，德国的失业率就以令人担心的速度上升。与此同时，德国的家庭负债额也在增长，2000年达到顶峰，占可支配收入的112%，与美国当时的状况类似。花旗集团的何塞•路易斯•阿尔索拉(Jose
Luis Alzola)表示，尽管目前德国的利率水平处于历史低点，但人们再也不像80年代那样“借钱花”了。
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Together
with unemployment, which began rising alarmingly in the mid-1990s,
household indebtedness also grew, peaking at 112 per cent of
disposable income in 2000, similar to that in the US. Even though
interest rates are at a historical low, people no longer
"borrow to spend" as in the eighties, says Jose Luis
Alzola of Citigroup.
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摩根士丹利(Morgan
Stanley)的艾尔加•巴奇(Elga Bartsch)则认为：“在上世纪90年代，除英国以外，其他国家的储蓄率都没像德国下降的那么快。德国还有不少事要做。”
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For
Elga Bartsch, economist at Morgan Stanley: "There is no other
country apart from the UKswheressavings rates fell so sharply in
the nineties. There was some catching up to do."
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德国也没有经历过英国和美国那样的房地产热潮，而正是房地产热潮保护了英国和美国消费者，使他们免于承受股市崩溃的严重后果。不过，即便德国曾经出现房地产热潮，或许也不会对该国消费有任何助益。相对英国和美国来说，德国拥有房产的人较少，而且由于存在法律限制且手续费较高，因此，德国人要想通过再按揭来兑现房屋价格上涨带来的收益，这几乎是不可能的。
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Nor
did the country experience a property boom of the kind that
shielded UK and US consumers from the worst effects of the stock
exchange crash. Even if it had, it is doubtful it would have
helped. Comparatively few Germans own property and legal barriers
and high fees make re-mortgaging - and cashing in on rising home
values - almost impossible.
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“人们对未来感到恐惧……他们预计自己的收入不会再以像样的速度持续增长，”巴克莱(Barclays
Capital)驻法兰克福的托尔斯滕•波莱特(Thorsten
Polleit)说。
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"People
are fearful about the future . . . they no longer expect their
incomes to continue growing at a decent pace," Thorsten
Polleit of Barclays Capital in Frankfurt, sums up.
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最近，消费者信心低迷与以前相同。专家表示，同以往一样，人们对施罗德的结构性改革方案感到担忧，这完全合理。很多德国人认为，去年在保健、失业和养老金问题上的全面革新，已使人们增加了所需缴纳的费用，但在短期内减少了所能获得的益处。
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The
latest bout of consumer gloom is no different. As before, the
concern surrounding Mr Schroeder's structural reforms is wholly
rational, experts say. For many Germans, last year's healthcare,
unemployment and pension overhaul have increased contributions and
lowered benefits in the short term.
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“我们今天看到的消费者信心减弱的局面，在很大程度上是由医疗保险改革的不确定性造成，”捷孚凯的罗尔夫•比尔克(Rolf
Buerkl)说，“这场改革的好处尚未显现，因此，人们把注意力集中在改革的负面影响上。”
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"The
deterioration in sentiment we see today can be pretty much
explained by the uncertainties surrounding the health insurance
reform," says Rolf Buerkl of GfK. "The benefits of the
reform are not visible yet so attention focuses on the negative
aspects."
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德国正对其慷慨的社会福利制度进行调整，这最终会对德国经济形成直接冲击，因为在该国人均可支配收入中，有近三分之一来自政府拨款，该比例会随收入的下降而上升。
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Adjustments
to Germany's generous welfare state are turning out to have a
direct impact on the economy since nearly a third of average
disposable income in the country comes from government transfers,
a proportion that rises as incomes decrease.
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德国政府原本预计2004年将减税220亿欧元（合277亿美元），后来不得不将该数字削减三分之一，这对提高消费者信心自然无益。减税措施本来旨在缓解改革导致的痛苦，最终却产生相反的效果。
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It
does not help that the €22bn (.7bn) tax cut originally
envisaged by the government for 2004 had to be reduced by a third.
A measure intended to help appease the pain caused by the reforms
ended upshavingsthe opposite effect.
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欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)的弗里德里希•海涅曼(Friedrich
Heinemann)表示，对于普通工薪收入者来说，依照原来的减税计划，他们每月等于可增加约20欧元的收入。他说，减税额下降的消息令人失望，并导致1月份的收入预期指标连续第五个月下降。
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For
average earners, says Friedrich Heinemann of the ZEW economic
research institute, the tax cut will be worth around €20 a
month. The disappointing cut helped drive income expectations down
in January for the fifth month running, he claims.
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捷孚凯的调查结果显示，德国家庭之所以不消费，主要是因为他们对经济复苏的信心减弱。
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The
GfK poll shows a principal reason households are not spending is
their waning faith in a recovery.
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但有一点还是得到大家的一致认可，即那些改革措施将有助于确保德国的长期繁荣。
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Nevertheless
there remains a consensus that the reforms will help ensure
Germany's longer-term prosperity.
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德累斯登佳华(Dresdner
Kleinwort Wasserstein)的丹尼埃拉•埃奇贝格(Daniela
Etschbeger)表示同意：“每个人都知道必须改革。继续推迟改革非常危险。政府只能硬着头皮作出一些非常不受欢迎的决定。”
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Daniela
Etschbeger of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein agrees:
"Everybody knows reforms are necessary. It is dangerous to
keep on postponing them. Governments just have to bite the bullet
and take some very unpopular decisions."
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译者/李功文
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