EIA预计2022年美国天然气消费量将持续下降

EIA预计2022年美国天然气消费量将持续下降
2021年09月15日 14:38 中国石化新闻网

原标题:EIA预计2022年美国天然气消费量将持续下降

  中国石化新闻网讯 据管道&天然气杂志网9月13日报道,在EIA 9月发布的《短期能源展望》中,预计2021年和2022年美国的天然气消费量较2020年的水平将有所下降。EIA预测,除了工业部门和其他非部门特定用途(租赁和工厂燃料、管道和分销使用以及车辆使用)以外,美国所有终端使用部门的天然气消费量都将下降。

  跌幅最大的将出现在电力行业。预计2021年美国天然气总日均消耗量为825亿立方英尺,较2020年下降7亿立方英尺。根据展望显示,预计2022年美国天然气消费量将比2021年略有增加,因为工业部门消费量的增加抵消了电力部门消费量的下降,但仍低于2020年的水平。

  在美国,天然气价格影响着电力部门的天然气消费。当天然气价格高企时,发电商通常会从天然气转向成本较低的煤炭发电。2021年上半年,美国天然气基准亨利枢纽中心(Henry Hub)价格上涨,导致电力部门的天然气消耗量低于2020年上半年。我们预计2021年亨利枢纽中心的均价为每百万英国热单位3.63美元,或比2020年的均价高出1.60美元。因此,我们预计2021年美国电力部门的天然气日消费量将减少27亿立方英尺,即8.3%。据预测,由于天然气面临来自可再生能源发电的更多竞争,亨利枢纽中心天然气价格仍将保持在3.47美元/百万英热单位的高位,我们预计,2022年电力行业的天然气日消费量还将小幅下降7亿立方英尺。

  预计美国工业部门的天然气消费量将从2021年的日均232亿立方英尺增加到2022年的238立方英尺。工业部门消耗的天然气取决于工业活动水平,我们在STEO中使用天然气加权工业消耗指数来衡量。该指数反映了制造业分行业的增长及其对美国天然气消费的相对重要性。我们预计2021年该指数将较2020年水平上升5.8%,2022年较2021年水平再上升5.8%,反映出疫情后经济持续增长。

  郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网

  原文如下:

  EIA Expects U.S. Natural Gas Consumption to Decline Through 2022

  In EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect U.S. consumption of natural gas to decline in 2021 and 2022 from 2020 levels. We forecast that consumption of natural gas will decline in all end-use sectors in the United States except in the industrial sector and for other non-sector-specific uses (lease and plant fuel, pipeline and distribution use, and vehicle use).

  The largest decline will occur in the electric power sector. We expect total U.S. consumption of natural gas to average 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.7 Bcf/d from 2020. We expect U.S. natural gas consumption in 2022 to increase slightly from 2021 as increasing consumption in the industrial sector offsets declining consumption in the electric power sector, but still remains lower than the 2020 level, the outlook indicates.

  In the United States, natural gas prices influence natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. When natural gas prices are high, generators typically switch from natural gas to lower-cost coal as the source for power generation. Higher prices at Henry Hub, the U.S. natural gas benchmark, during the first half of 2021 resulted in less natural gas consumption in the electric power sector than during the first half of 2020. We expect the Henry Hub price to average $3.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, or $1.60/MMBtu more than the 2020 average. Therefore, we expect 2.7 Bcf/d, or 8.3%, less consumption of natural gas in the U.S. electric power sector in 2021. We expect another small, 0.7 Bcf/d, decline in electric power sector consumption of natural gas in 2022 as forecast Henry Hub prices remain elevated at $3.47/MMBtu and as natural gas faces more competition from renewable sources of electricity generation.

  We expect natural gas consumption in the U.S. industrial sector to increase in 2022 to 23.8 Bcf/d from an average of 23.2 Bcf/d in 2021. Natural gas consumed by the industrial sector is dependent on the level of industrial activity, which we measure in the STEO using a natural gas-weighted industrial consumption index. This index reflects the growth of manufacturing subsectors and their relative importance to U.S. natural gas consumption. We expect that the index will increase 5.8% in 2021 from 2020 levels and another 5.8% in 2022 from 2021 levels, reflecting continuing post-pandemic economic growth.

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