疫情影响迫使埃克森美孚大幅下调油价预测|美元_新浪财经

原标题：疫情影响迫使埃克森美孚大幅下调油价预测

中国石化新闻网讯据油价网华盛顿报道，在新冠肺炎疫情爆发后，埃克森美孚公司已大幅下调了其对未来7年油价的预期，预计到2025年布伦特原油均价将在50- 55美元/桶之间。

与欧洲同行不同，埃克森美孚公司没有公开披露其对油价的内部假设。

埃克森美孚公司和另一家美国大型石油公司雪佛龙公司继续将其内部的油价预测视为专有资料，尽管股东们不断施压，要求报告这些资料，以便让股东们了解其投资决策所依据的价格假设。

内部文件显示，去年埃克森美孚公司曾预计，到2025年布伦特原油均价将达到每桶62美元，然后在2026年和2027年升至每桶72美元。但今年，埃克森美孚公司预计未来5年布伦特原油均价将在每桶55美元，2026年和2027年将在每桶60美元。

由于长期油价假设较低以及石油需求是否将恢复到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前水平的不确定性，除埃克森美孚公司以外，全球所有石油巨头今年都对他们的资产价值进行了大幅减记。英国石油公司和壳牌公司的高管并不排除全球石油消费量可能永远无法恢复到疫情爆发前每天大约1亿桶的“正常”水平的可能性。

埃克森美孚公司首席执行官达伦·伍兹10月份曾对全体员工说，“目前的情况是暂时的，但复苏的路径和速度都不确定。”

伍兹谈到全球石油需求时说，“即使考虑到Covid-19对短期需求的影响，投资的理由仍然是明确的。”

10月底，埃克森美孚公司曾警告称，由于石油需求和油价低迷，该公司今年已连续第三次亏损，可能会减记价值高达300亿美元的北美天然气资产。

李峻编译自油价网

原文如下：

COVID Forces Exxon To Slash Oil Price Forecast

In the wake of the pandemic, ExxonMobil has significantly lowered its expectations about oil prices for the next seven years, expecting Brent Crude to average between $50 and $55 a barrel until 2025, citing internal Exxon documents it had reviewed.

Exxon, unlike its peers in Europe, does not publicly disclose its internal assumptions about oil prices.

Both Exxon and the other U.S. supermajor, Chevron, continue to see their in-house oil price forecasts as proprietary information, despite increased shareholder pressure to report that information to give shareholders insights into the price assumptions on which they base their investment decisions.

According to the internal Exxon documents from September, last year Exxon expected Brent Crude to average $62 a barrel through 2025 and to then rise to $72 per barrel in 2026 and 2027. But this year, the supermajor sees Brent averaging up to $55 per barrel for the next five years, and $60 a barrel for 2026 and 2027.

All oil majors except Exxon have made this year significant writedowns in the value of their assets due to lower long-term oil price assumptions and the uncertainty of whether oil demand will return to pre-pandemic levels. The top executives of BP and Shell are not ruling out the notion that the world may never return to its 'normal' pre-virus levels of consumption of around 100 million barrels per day (bpd).

Exxon’s chief executive Darren Woods told all employees last month that “the current situation is temporary - but with an uncertain path and pace of recovery.”

“Even accounting for the short-term demand impact of Covid-19, the investment case is still clear,” Woods said about global oil demand.

At the end of October, Exxon warned that it could write down North American natural gas assets with a carrying value of up to US$30 billion as it reported its third consecutive loss this year amid low oil demand and oil prices.