欧佩克+增加供应燃料油需求减弱_新浪财经

原标题：欧佩克+增加供应燃料油需求减弱

中国石化新闻网讯据彭博社8月5日报道，随着本月欧佩克+的部分原油供应从本月恢复，对高硫燃料油的意外需求提振将有所缓解。

欧佩克的减产以及地缘政治因素，打击了重质原油的供应，迫使从美国到印度的加工商加大对高硫燃料油的购买，以作为其炼油厂的替代原料。需求增加导致贸易出现逆转，市场陷入供应小于需求的状态，但随着欧佩克+打开供应阀门，预计供应将变得更加充足。

虽然大量的燃料以前是用来为船舶提供动力的，但在今年实施了新的规定，要求船舶使用更清洁的燃料，除非在船上安装了昂贵的净化设备，随后高硫燃料需求下降。最近的需求激增也与中东的季节性需求增长相吻合——中东进口燃料油用于夏季发电。

由于竞争加剧，沙特阿拉伯已被迫为其发电站寻求替代燃料油，而印度今年1-7月的高硫燃料油购买量较上年同期增长了两倍以上。Vortexa Ltd.高级分析师Serena Huang表示，通常从欧洲和俄罗斯运往新加坡的原油已转往美国，作为炼油厂的原料。

据知情交易员透露，泰国和韩国的炼油商近几个月也购买了更多燃料油，用作替代原料。这些国家进口石油的时间与沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克等国大幅削减石油供应的时间一致，这两个产油国倾向于出口高硫原油。

据彭博社数据显示7月初，新加坡高硫燃料油价格自2月份以来首次出现现货溢价，暗示供应趋紧。

JBC Energy的数据显示，上月石油市场吃紧，缺口超过50万桶/天，超过5年平均水平。JBC表示，预计到今年年底，原油短缺将缓解至每天10万桶的较正常的水平，而伍德曼肯兹公司也认为供应紧张状况将有所缓和。炼油厂可以使用燃料油作为工厂二级装置的原料，以生产柴油和其他高端产品。

伍德麦肯兹亚太区炼油业务研究总监苏珊特?古普塔（Sushant Gupta）表示，印度信实工业有限公司（Reliance Industries Ltd.）等拥有二级燃料油升级装置的综合炼油企业将受益最大，因为它们在没有重质原油的情况下可以灵活使用替代原料。根据JBC的数据，相比之下，欧洲的基础炼油厂在原油价格过高后不得不关闭或降低运行率。

然而，随着欧佩克取消历史性的供应限制措施，并向市场恢复更多供应，专门加工重质含硫原油的炼油厂将恢复使用更熟悉的原料，从而减少对燃料油的购买。

王佳晶摘译自彭博社

原文如下：

Dirty Oil’s Unusual Demand Boost Set to Wane on OPEC+ Easing

An unexpected demand boost for dirty fuel oil is poised to ease with the return of some OPEC+ crude supply from this month.

Cuts by the producer alliance, hitting supplies of heavier crude and forcing processors from the U.S. to India to boost buying of high-sulfur fuel oil to use as an alternative feedstock in their refineries. Typically a by-product of crude refining, increased demand upended trade flows and drove the market into a deep deficit, but supply is expected to become more abundant as refiners switch back to crude with OPEC+ opening the taps.

While a large chunk of the fuel was previously used to power ships, consumption has waned after new regulations were implemented this year mandating vessels use cleaner burning fuels unless they are fitted with expensive pollution kits. The recent demand surge also coincided with a seasonal boost from the Middle East, which imports fuel oil for use in electricity generation during the hotter summer months.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to tap alternative markets for its power-station fuel due to intensifying competition, while Indian high-sulfur fuel oil purchases more than tripled through January to July from a year earlier. Shipments typically bound for Singapore from Europe and Russia have been diverted to the U.S. for refinery feedstock, said Serena Huang, a senior analyst with Vortexa Ltd.

Refiners in Thailand and South Korea have also purchased more fuel oil in recent months to use as an alternative feedstock, according to traders familiar with the matter. The timing of their imports was in-line with sharp cuts to supplies from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two producers that tend to export sulfurous and high-density crude.

High-sulfur fuel oil prices in Singapore flipped into backwardation in early July for the first time since February, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data, signaling tighter supply.

The market tightened to a deficit of more than 500,000 barrels a day last month, more than the five-year average, according to JBC Energy. The shortage is expected to ease to a “more normal” 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, said JBC, while Wood Mackenzie Ltd. also sees supply tightness moderating. Refiners can use fuel oil as a feedstock for secondary units at a plant to produce fuels such as diesel and other higher-end products.

Complex refiners such as India’s Reliance Industries Ltd.,which have the secondary units to upgrade fuel oil, would benefit the most because they have the flexibility to use the alternative feedstock when heavy crude isn’t available, said Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia Pacific refining at Wood Mackenzie. That compares with simple refiners in Europe that had to shut down or cut run rates after crude became too expensive, according to JBC.

However, as OPEC+ rolls back historic curbs and return more supplies to the market, refiners tailored to process heavy-sour crudes will revert to the more familiar feedstock, reducing their purchases of fuel oil.