中弘退了,恒立板了,重组股到底炒不炒?

中弘退了,恒立板了,重组股到底炒不炒?
2018年11月08日 22:43 新浪财经-自媒体综合



今日两个消息估计令投资者有点无所适从。

一个亏损股,中弘股份,因为交易价格在20个工作日内都在1元以下,终于触发了退市条件,虽然中弘还与深交所交涉了,但是已经回天无力了。

其实中弘确实还是有点冤的,同样是亏损股,它又不是亏损最严重的,而且已经数次冲破1元了,没想到最后两天突然意外大跌,成为两市第一只因为股价不足1元而退市的公司。

如此说来,亏损股退市是否就从此板上钉丁了呢?

你要真这么想,那你又错了,你看看恒立实业,这是一家不折不扣的壳股公司。财务数据显示,公司上市22年来,只有上市初期4年经营业绩较为稳定,其余时间多在微利与亏损之间穿梭,2003年以来的15年零9个月,其扣除非经常性损益后净利润均为亏损。

也正因为如此,恒立实业经历了停牌7年、4次易主、5次重组、2次卖壳等令人眼花缭乱的资本故事,期间,成功系的刘虹、中技系成清波、并购教父宋晓明等资本玩家均涉足其中,但最终都是炒乱一气,没有任何实际的经营成果。

恒立实业成为证券市场的不死鸟,不光是不死鸟,简直就是凤凰的经历,再次证明了重组是A股长久的热点。

如此说起来,ST长生怎能服气?所以,今天ST长生在总市值跌到28亿元的时候,就被一大把资金从跌停板上拉到了涨停板!

今日ST长生走势分时图:


说起来,长生虽然有疫苗造假的问题,但不管怎么说,没有欠一屁股债啊,财务上还是比较健康的。工厂、设备以及员工还是相当完整的,如果真像公司之前所说的,没有人因为疫苗出现问题的话,那么几乎没有受害者要进行赔偿了。

而且,一个神奇的事情真的发生了。此前市场上比较公认的一个壳价值就是30亿元以下,现在长生在市值28亿元的时候,真是有人来抢壳了。

不过,我们小散也看不明白的是,那90亿元的罚款交完之后,长生还能剩下个啥呢?

这样比起来,似乎万达电影更有价值,毕竟人家资产没有受到影响,电影院还有现金流进来,资产还有对赌的保利润协议,目前估值不到25倍了!

事实上,两天前我已经预判到万达会有两个一字板,从现在的形势看,再有两个跌停板,不但估值跌到20倍以下,更加重要的是,它将补上自上市以来在月线上的缺口!所以,到这个位置上,它或许能有一个比较有力的支撑了!这个位置的价格是17.48元。

今日万达电影有四家机构在卖出,对照前十大流通股东所持股票,似乎还没卖干净呢,所以,再来两个跌停还是很有可能的。而买进的前五家,不是机构席位。这说明套在其中的机构,目前还是想走,没有低位补仓降低成本的想法。

只能感慨,为啥恒立这样基本上没有好好经营过的企业如此吃香?同样的政策环境下,居然能有11个涨停板?而业绩好好的万达,还有保业绩的对赌,却连续吃了四个跌停还不一定能结束?这里面可是有着46只基金啊。搞价值投资的基金,远远没有投机的资金来得风光。

所以,重组股不是不可以买,一个是,不要去买那些快跌破1元的股了,如果公开在市场上跌破了退市的硬杠杠,领导想帮忙也很难帮上了。第二个,看不懂的,或者说盘子太大的,大家都懂的,也不要去买了。

眼下的风向,小的民企、亏损比较大的,质押比较高的、当地政府比较有钱的,这样的公司重组,成功率似乎会更高一些。

懒得对国内股市的是非曲折一探究竟的投资者,现在有一个比较好的机会就是去买美国的指数基金,毕竟美国的中期选举结束了,民主党也没取得啥了不起的压倒性的席位,所以,美国的基本政策估计还是比较稳定的。随着大选的结束,美国重要上市公司的季报披露期也要进入尾声了,美国上市公司的回购活动又打开了时间窗口。

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金 小程序~

双语阅读~

Today's two news estimates make investors somewhat confused.

A loss-making stock, Zhonghong shares, because the transaction price is less than 1 yuan within 20 working days, finally triggered the delisting conditions, although Zhonghong also negotiated with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but it has been weak.

In fact, Zhonghong is still a bit embarrassed. It is also a loss-making stock. It is not the most serious loss, and it has broken through 1 yuan several times. I did not expect that the last two days suddenly fell unexpectedly and became the first in the two cities because of insufficient stock price. A company that withdraws from the market by one yuan.

In this way, is the loss of stocks delisted from this board?

If you really want to think so, then you are wrong again. You look at Hengli Industry, which is an uncompromising shell company. According to financial data, in the 22 years since the company was listed, only the operating performance in the initial four years of the listing was relatively stable, and the rest of the time was between small profits and losses. For the 15 years and 9 months since 2003, the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. All are losses.

Because of this, Hengli Industrial experienced a dazzling capital story of suspending for 7 years, 4 times of change, 5 reorganizations, 2 times selling shells, etc. During the period, Liu Hong of the success department and the Chinese technology department became Qing Bo. Capital players such as the acquisition of the godfather Song Xiaoming were involved, but in the end they were all squandered and did not have any actual business results.

Hengli Industry has become the immortal bird in the securities market. It is not only the immortal bird. It is simply the experience of Phoenix. It proves once again that reorganization is a long-term hot spot for A shares.

So, how can ST Changsheng be convinced? Therefore, when ST Changsheng fell to 2.8 billion yuan in total market value today, he was dragged by a large amount of funds from the limit board to the daily limit!

Speaking of it, although Changsheng has the problem of vaccine fraud, but in any case, there is no debt, it is still relatively healthy. The factories, equipment, and employees are still quite complete. If, as the company said before, no one has problems with the vaccine, then almost no victims have to pay compensation.

Moreover, a magical thing really happened. Previously, the value of a shell that was relatively recognized in the market was less than 3 billion yuan. Now when the market value of Changsheng is 2.8 billion yuan, it is really someone who is stealing the shell.

However, what we can't understand is that after the $9 billion fine has been paid, will there be a flaw in the longevity?

In this way, it seems that Wanda movies are more valuable. After all, people's assets are not affected. There are cash flow in the cinema, and assets and gambling profits are guaranteed. The current valuation is less than 25 times!

In fact, two days ago, I had already predicted that Wanda would have two word boards. From the current situation, there are two more down-limit boards, not only the valuation fell below 20 times, but more importantly, it will be added. The gap on the monthly line since the listing! So, to this position, it may have a stronger support! The price of this location is 17.48 yuan.

Today, four Wanda films are sold. Compared with the stocks held by the top ten tradable shareholders, it seems that they have not been sold clean. Therefore, the two downs are still very likely. The top five buyers are not institutional seats. This shows that the institutions that are in it are still trying to go, and there is no idea of lowering the position to reduce costs.

I can only feel that I am so fragrant for a company that has not managed well. Under the same policy environment, can there be 11 daily limit boards? Wanda, which has a good performance, and the gambling of the performance, but it is not necessarily the end of the four consecutive downs. There are 46 funds in it. Funds that engage in value investing are far from being speculative.

Therefore, it is not impossible to buy restructured stocks. One is, don't buy stocks that fall below 1 yuan. If the public breaks the hard bar of delisting in the market, it is difficult for the leaders to help. The second one, if you don't understand it, or if the plate is too big, everyone knows it, and don't buy it.

At present, the small winds, small private enterprises, relatively large losses, high pledges, and the local government are rich, such a company restructuring, the success rate seems to be higher.

If you are too lazy to invest in the domestic stock market, there is a better chance to buy the US index fund. After all, the US mid-term election is over, and the Democratic Party has not achieved a great overwhelming seat. The basic US policy is still relatively stable. With the end of the general election, the quarterly disclosure period of major US listed companies has also come to an end, and the repurchase activities of US listed companies have opened up the time window.


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免责声明:自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。

恒立实业 恒立 中弘

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