来源：路闻卓立
美国金融网站Northman Trader的博主、技术分析师Sven Henrich近日发文指出，美联储面临一个数学问题，市场亦是。从总统开始，每一个人都在要求降息，而且是很多人。美联储主席鲍威尔称7月降息为“周期中段”调整，但联储收效甚微，因为在贸易紧张加剧和收益率继续暴跌后的余波中，市场开始抛售。而现在市场要求更多。降息50个基点似乎是市场对9月份的最低要求。其含义是显而易见的：美联储不能让人失望。
图片 | Pixabay市场目前所反映的绝不是“周期中段”调整：
And what markets are currently pricing in is anything but a “mid-cycle” adjustment：
这几乎是要求明年降息100个基点。特朗普总统当然希望现在就降息100个基点，并在此基础上再推出一些量化宽松。特朗普在其推特上表示：“．．．．．美联储应该在相当短的时间内至少降息100个基点，或许还需出台一些量化宽松政策。如果出现这种情况，我们的经济将会更好，全球经济将会迅速得到大幅提升——这对每个人都有好处！”
That’s nearly a 100bp rate cut over the next year． President Trump of course wants a 100bp now AND some QE sprinkled on top of that： ．．．．．The Fed Rate， over a fairly short period of time， should be reduced by at least 100 basis points， with perhaps some quantitative easing as well． If that happened， our Economy would be even better， and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone！
暂且不谈这种要求在经济上是否明智，让我们来看看特朗普要求的影响，以及从更长的时间来看，市场要求降息100个基点的影响。
Leaving a discussion about the economic wisdom of such demands at this time aside for the moment， let’s look at the implications of Mr． Trump’s demand， and， on a longer time frame， the market’s demand for 100bp in rate cuts．
问题在于，相对于之前的周期，美联储的弹药非常有限，而这一事实似乎逃过了所有人的视线。
See the problem is the Fed has very limited ammunition vis a vis previous cycles and that fact seems to escape everyone．
2015年12月至2018年12月，美联储把基准利率从近零区间上调了9次。这是有史以来最弱的加息周期。2018年，人们仍强烈预计2019年将进一步加息。事实上，高盛在2018年11月时还预计2019年会加息5次。
Between December 2015 and December 2018 the Fed raised rates 9 times from zero bound． Historically speaking the weakest rate hiking cycle ever． In 2018 expectations were still high for further rate hikes in 2019． In fact Goldman Sachs had projected 5 rate hikesfor 2019 as late as November of 2018．
随着全球收益率暴跌，加之数据继续显示经济明显放缓，这样的日子早已一去不复返。因此，7月迎来降息：
Those days are long gone as global yields have collapsed and economic data has continued to show significant slowing． Hence the rate cut in July：
而这其中存在数学问题。在本次降息之后，美联储距离重新回到近零区间只剩8次降息机会。
And therein lies the math problem． With one rate cut already under its belt the Fed now only has 8 rate cuts to work with before being right back at zero bound．
如果9月份降息50个基点，美联储将只剩6次——每次降息25个基点——的降息机会。如果明年再降息50个基点，美联储将仅剩4次——每次降息25个基点——的降息机会。这意味着美联储将在短短12个月内扳回近一半的加息周期。对我来说，这听起来不像是“周期中期”的调整。
Cutting by 50bp in September would leave the Fed with only six 25bp rate cuts to play with． Cutting another 50bp over the next year would leave the Fed with only four 25 bp rate cuts implying the Fed would have given back nearly half of its entire rate raising cycle in just 12 months which took it 3 years to accomplish． Doesn’t sound like a “mid-cycle’ adjustment to me．
作为参考：2001年，美联储不得不启动550个基点的降息周期，以阻止经济衰退。2007年那轮，这个数字为500个基点。这一次，美联储从225至250个基点的起点开始了降息周期。
For reference： In 2001 the Fed had to embark on a rate cutting cycle of 550bp to stop the unfolding recession． In 2007 it took 500bp． This time the Fed has started its rate cutting cycle from a 225-250bp basis．
因此，我必须问：既然可用的弹药如此有限，而要真正阻止经济周期逆转又需要如此多的弹药，为什么美联储还要在市场仍接近历史高点、失业率仍处于50年低点的情况下，浪费更多的降息机会呢？为什么要冒着降息50个基点，却只剩下6次各降息25个基点机会的风险？毕竟，衰退风险正在上升，就连太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）也承认这一点。除非未来最终将深入200 -250基点的负利率区间——这意味着一场全面的灾难性危机——否则，在目前阶段，市场或许对美联储期望过高。
So I must ask： With such limited ammunition to work with and so much ammunition required to actually stop a cycle turn， why would the Fed waste more rate cuts with markets still near all time highs and unemployment still at 50 year lows？ Why risk a 50bp rate cut and be left with only six 25 bp rate cuts in the coffer？ Recession risk after all is rising and even Pimco is acknowledging this． Unless the ultimate future is negative rates into the negative 200bp-250bp territory zone， which would imply a full out disastrous crisis， then perhaps markets are expecting way too much from Momma Fed at this stage．
如果是这样的话，那么市场可能会失望。这个论点将在周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲时迎来首道考验。市场正急切地等待关于确认未来将更加激进降息的信号。美联储面临一道数学难题，而且还有一头市场怪兽函待——美联储——喂养。
And if this is the case， then markets may be setting themselves up for disappointment． The first test of this thesis will come on Friday during Jay Powell’s Jacksonhole speech． Markets are eagerly awaiting a signal to confirm more aggressive rate cuts． The Fed has a math problem and a market beast that wants to be fed． By the Fed．
鲍威尔承担不起让人失望的后果。但同时可能还潜伏着另一个问题。如果美联储过于激进，它可能会在不经意间发出另一个信号：衰退风险是真实存在的，而市场最终可能也不喜欢这种声音。
Jay Powell can ill afford to disappoint． But there may be another problem lurking． If the Fed goes too aggressive， it may inadvertently send another signal altogether： Recession risk is real and markets may ultimately not like the sound of that either． （完）
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