来源：人民币交易与研究
“我们正处在一个迷离地带”--债王冈德拉克近日对信贷市场崩溃的风险如此警告道。
图|CNBC过去几周，杰夫•冈德拉克频频出现在财经媒体的报道中，从他连续第九次参加Sohn会议，到之后接受CNBC采访，以及其发表的最新网络演讲。
Jeff Gundlach has been a recurring presence in the financial press over the past couple of weeks due to his ninth consecutive appearance at Sohn， to an ensuing interview with CNBC， as well as his latest web presentation．
而最近在纽约举行的双线活动上，冈德拉克和Quill intelligence创始人丹妮尔•迪马蒂诺•布斯都坐下来接受了由冈德拉克公司的副首席投资官杰夫•舍曼主持的一次谈话。90分钟的讨论涉及冈德拉克对美国无资金准备债务真正规模、赤字不断扩大前景及其可能在不远的将来给美国经济造成严重问题、公司债市场的内在风险、杰罗姆·鲍威尔的“洗脑”、学生贷款危机和MOVE 指数骤升前景的警告，以及其他许多话题。
During a recent DoubleLine event in New York， both Gundlach and Quill intelligence founder Danielle DiMartino Booth sat down for a talk moderated by Jeff Sherman， deputy CIO at Gundlach‘s firm． The 90-minute discussion involved Gundlach’s warnings about the true magnitude of America‘s unfunded liabilities， the prospect for a permanently wider deficit and the possibility that this could create serious problems for the American economy in the not-too-distant future， the risks inherent in the corporate bond market， the ’brainwashing‘ of Jerome Powell， the student-loan crisis， the prospects for an uptick in the MOVE index， and many other topics．
首先，冈德拉克和舍曼以一段有关现代市场前景的评论开始了对话，称由于美国总统特朗普坚持降息，现代市场前景就像进入“迷离地带”。
“这就像一个迷离地带”，冈德拉克如是说。
First， Gundlach and Sherman started the conversation with a remark about the modern markets landscape resembling ‘the Twilight Zone’ thanks to President Trump‘s insistence on rate cuts．
“It‘s like the Twilight Zone，” Gundlach said．
然后，他援引本月早些时候美国副总统麦克•彭斯接受CNBC采访时说的话。这位副总统先称赞了经济“蓬勃发展”，然后又呼吁降息100个基点。但特朗普从竞选时期抨击美联储的鹰派立场转向极端鸽派立场，这并不令人意外。
He then cited an interview with Mike Pence on CNBC earlier this month where the vice president praised the ‘roaring’ economy， before calling for 100 bps rate cut． But the fact that Trump has shifted to an ultra-dovish stance， from his once-hawkish campaign-era Fed bashing， is hardly surprising．
“2016年初选开始前，我就预测唐纳德·特朗普会赢……但我也说过唐纳德·特朗普喜欢债务，我想他从来没有偿还过债务。他已经破产了，所以你可以肯定他会扩大赤字。”
“When I predicted before the primary started in 2016 at Donald Trump was gonna win．．．But I also said that Donald Trump loves debt and he’s never paid back debt， I think， ever． And he‘s gone bankrupt…so you can bet dollars to doughnuts that he’ll expand the deficit．”
冈德拉克在解释他对市场前景的看法时警告说，各国央行的刺激措施已经把水搅浑了。正因为如此，让利率飙升变得和让利率下跌一样容易。
When explaining his market outlook， Gundlach warned that central banks have muddied the waters with their stimulus． Because of this， it has become just as easy to make the case for interest rates to soar as it is to make the case that they‘ll sink．
接着，他重申了其最近在Sohn会议上提出的重要交易建议：即在美国国债经历了近年来最平静的时期之一之后，做多债券市场的波动性。
He then moved on to reiterate his big trade recommendation from his latest Sohn appearance： That is， going long bond market volatility， following one of the most tranquil periods for Treasuries in recent memory．
“我们生活在一个非常奇怪的世界里，几乎任何事情都可能发生。你想做的是押注这种不稳定的局面最终演变成两种结果之一，而股票和债券的波动性（直到最近）一直接近历史低点。这将在什么时候结束？其中一种结果必然会出现，所以我认为现在是大举押注的时候了——押注股市晚了两天——但还有MOVE指数（跟踪美国国债市场波动性的指数）。”
“We‘re in this really weird world where almost anything can happen． What you want to do is bet on this unstable situation finally devolving into one of the two outcomes， and volatility on equities and bonds （until recently） has been near all time lows． Where is this going to end？ One of these binary outcomes has to happen， so I think this is the time to be betting pretty heavily - on stocks you’re two days late - but the MOVE Index （which tracks Treasury market volatility）．”
冈德拉克和布斯都对美联储提出了严厉的批评，因为联储屈从于白宫对祭出更多刺激措施的期望。更重要的是，以前拥有“自由思维”的鲍威尔已经被塑造成另一位保守的央行官员……布斯一度称他为“几乎是另一个珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen，前任美联储主席）”。
Both Gundlach and Booth had some harsh words for the Fed， which has bowed to the White House‘s wishes for more stimulus． What’s more， the formerly ‘free thinking’ Powell has been molded into another establishment central banker．．．at one point Booth described him as “basically Janet Yellen．”
布斯表示：“杰伊•鲍威尔已被设定为按照央行官员的思维方式来思考问题，这削弱了他作为一个真实的人的能力。”
“Jay Powell has been programmed to think the way central bankers think and that takes away from his ability to be a real person，” Booth said．
接着，两位演讲者就冈德拉克最近讲话中的另一个流行议题——公司债市场带来的风险——发表了看法。杠杆越来越高的BBB级债券发行公司可能正处于一场破坏稳定的崩溃边缘，因为一旦评级机构无法再忽视它们不断恶化的杠杆水平，这些债券的评级就会从投资级下调而成为“堕落天使”。
Moving on， the two speakers shared their views about another popular theme in Gundlach‘s more recent remarks： risks emanating from the corporate bond market． The increasingly leveraged BBB companies could be on the verge of a destabilizing crash as ’fallen angels‘ drop out from investment-grade indexes after being downgraded once the ratings firms can no longer ignore their worsening leverage ratio．
“我认为杰伊•鲍威尔已开始关注信贷市场……经纪自营商的资产负债表不再像过去那样拥有缓冲……金融体系没有能力应对债券交易所交易基金（ETF）遭遇挤兑的情况，”布斯称。
“I think Jay Powell has his eye on the credit markets．．．broker dealer balance sheets don‘t have the cushion they used to have．．．there’s no capacity in the financial system for a run on bond ETFs，” Booth said．
“在过去，当散户出售资产时……经纪商将扩大资产负债表……它实际上是一个很好的赚钱工具。他们不能再这样做了--这个减震器已经被破坏了，”冈德拉克补充道。
“In the old days， when retail would sell．．．dealers would balloon up their balance sheets．．．it was actually a great money maker． They can‘t do that anymore - this shock absorber has been destroyed，” Gundlach added．
（the end）
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