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我们现在正处在努力建立一个更加开放和公正的全球贸易体系的关键时刻。今年9月，世界贸易组织坎昆会议破裂之后，谈判各方都面临着12月15日重开谈判的挑战。现在，谈判期限即将来临，但在主要议题上，各利益阵营仍存在很大分歧。由于它们数月来始终无所作为，多哈发展议程被无限期推迟的可能性很大。
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We
have reached a critical juncture in efforts to create a more open and
equitable global trading system. After the breakdown at the September
World Trade Organisation meeting, negotiators set themselves the challenge
of restarting talks by December 15. But, on the eve of that deadline, the
coalitions seem as far apart as ever on the main issues. The risk of the
Doha development agenda being put off indefinitely looms larger with each
month of inaction.
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本轮贸易谈判任何可能的推迟，都会使我们失去一次刺激全球经济增长、取得消除贫困的关键进展，以及实现联合国千年发展目标的机会。谈判的推迟也会加速推动建立双边和区域贸易安排的趋势，同时使很多国家被隔离在世界主要市场之外，并生活在贸易大国的阴影之下。现在，发达国家有责任尽早做出实质性的、能反映目标的相关承诺，打破贸易壁垒，削减导致贸易畸形发展的农业补贴，并对新加坡议题中新规定的义务采取灵活态度。达成这一目标并非易事，它需要有关方面的领导层做出政治决断，并获得谈判各方的广泛支持。为什么各方应对此进行支持呢？我们有以下几个充分的理由：
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Any
delay in this trade round would be a lost opportunity to spur global
growth, make decisive progress in the fight against poverty, and keep the
United Nations' Millennium Development Goals within reach. It could also
accelerate the trend towards bilateral or regional arrangements, leaving
many countries isolated from major markets and vulnerable to more powerful
trading nations. The onus is now on developed countries to make early,
concrete and ambitious commitments to reducing barriers and
trade-distorting subsidies in agriculture and to be flexible about new
regulatory obligations (the "Singapore issues"). This will not
be easy, as it requires determined political leadership and popular
support. We see several compelling reasons why such support should be
forthcoming.
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通过集体消除贸易壁垒来促进贸易增长，是世界各国共同努力消除贫困、提高生活水平的最有效的方式。越来越多的事实证明，长期实行贸易开放的国家比闭关锁国的国家经济增长速度更快。而经济增长能使世界上的贫困人口直接受益。经济每增长1个百分点，贫困程度平均每年下降就超过1.5个百分点。多哈回合谈判如获得成功，就可在2015年之前使1.4亿人脱贫。
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Expanding
trade by collectively reducing barriers is the most powerful tool that
countries, working together, can deploy to reduce poverty and raise living
standards. A growing body of evidence shows that countries that are more
open to trade grow faster over the long run than those that remain closed.
And growth directly benefits the world's poor. A one percentage point
increase in growth on average reduces poverty by more than 1.5 per cent
each year. A successful Doha round could lift 140m people out of poverty
by 2015.
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贸易的增长还会降低商品价格，丰富商品种类，从而使消费者和高效率的生产企业获益。这是因为，贸易能促进生产专业化，从而大幅降低生产成本。同时，贸易还促使竞争更加激烈，而这是促进技术革新的关键因素。与此形成强烈对比的是，贸易壁垒会给整个社会带来成本居高不下的后果，特别是对那些最不能承担高成本的企业。举例来说，据估计，美国的进口壁垒在上世纪90年代为旅行箱生产行业保住了226个工作岗位，但是仅为保住一个工作岗位，美国消费者每年就要付出近130万美元的代价。还有一例，现在欧盟地区的纳税人每年要支付5亿多美元来补贴豌豆和大豆的生产。
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Increased
trade also benefits consumers and efficient producers, through lower
prices and access to a wider variety of goods. This is because trade
encourages greater specialisation - which dramatically lowers costs - and
more intense competition, which is central to innovation. In sharp
contrast, trade barriers can impose high costs on society - and
particularly on those that can least afford them. For example, it has been
estimated that barriers to imports in the 1990s saved 226 jobs in the US
luggage industry, but at a cost to American consumers of nearly .3m per
year for each job. And taxpayers in the European Union spend over m
annually to subsidise the production of peas and beans.
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贸易的增长基本上总是会带来更多更好的工作机会。过去20年，科技突飞猛进，贸易蓬勃发展，就算把消失的工作机会计算在内，美国依旧新增了约4000万个工作岗位。诚然，当一国实行贸易开放政策时，该国某些行业的竞争力就会显得不足，也会出现公司倒闭和工作机会减少的现象。这就象新技术刚开始发展时一样。但是贸易也会带来新的工作机会，而且这些工作机会一般都比原有的更好。其中的关键就在于控制贸易调整的成本，帮助产业工人转入更具竞争力的工作岗位，而不是抗拒这一变化。
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Expanded
trade nearly always means more and better jobs. Over the past two decades
- a period of immense technological change and growth in trade - around
40m more jobs were created than were destroyed in the US. It is true that,
when a country opens to trade, just as when new technologies are
developed, some of its sectors may not be competitive. Companies may go
out of business and some jobs will be lost. But trade creates new jobs and
these tend to be better than the old ones. The key is to manage the costs
of trade adjustment and to support the transition of workers to more
competitive employment, not to block change.
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这中间，降低调整的成本是关键，投资新的市场机会也同样至关重要。国际货币基金组织(International
Monetary Fund)和世界银行(World Bank)可帮助其成员，特别是发展中国家，对调整的成本进行评估。同时，我们可以为有关成员的政策制订、机制改革和基建、教育及其他领域的投资项目提供技术和财政支持，帮助它们提升竞争力和扩大出口。
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Alleviating
any transition cost is critical. So too is investing to take advantage of
new market opportunities. The International Monetary Fund and the World
Bank can assist our members, especially developing countries, in assessing
potential costs of adjustment. And we can provide technical and financial
assistance to help design policies, institutional reforms and investment
programmes in infrastructure, education and other areas to improve
competitiveness and expand exports.
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重开多边贸易谈判需要各方都付出重大的努力。发达国家应当率先采取实质性措施，降低贸易壁垒，缩减向棉花、糖类及其他农业生产商发放的补贴，因为这种补贴会导致贸易畸形发展。这样做需要具有一定的政治勇气，因为有关措施可能会损害该国国内强大的选民利益。但是必须告诉选民，这些措施所带来的利益将远远超过所造成的损失，并使更多的人广泛受益。
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Breathing
lifesintosthe multilateral trade negotiations will require significant
efforts from all. Developed countries should lead the way with substantive
offers to lower barriers and curtail trade-distorting subsidies to cotton,
sugar, and other agricultural producers. This requires political courage:
such actions would impinge on powerful domestic constituencies. But
electorates must be told that the losses would be far outweighed by gains
that would be shared more broadly.
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发展中国家也应做出他们的努力。它们应当将打破国内贸易壁垒、采取贸易开放政策作为其发展战略的有机组成部分。该发展战略的重点应该是：建立良好的管理体制和健全的经济政策，并在基础建设、教育和卫生等方面加大投资。
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Developing
countries must also do their part. Tackling domestic trade barriers and
embracing trade should be an integral part of development strategies. And
these strategies also need to emphasise good governance, sound economic
policies, and investment in infrastructure, education and health.
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如果所有国家都能够同心协力，贸易自由化将在消除全球贫困现象方面充分发挥作用。这也是多边贸易谈判所企盼的前景。实施上述措施不应被视为是一种“让步”行为，而应被看成是为本国经济带来机遇和提高生产力的途径。如果各国政府一起采取这些措施，它们就会在提高生产力和赢得更多国际市场机会方面获得双倍的收益。它们越早采取这些措施，取得的效果就会越好。
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Trade
liberalisation will have the largest impact in reducing global poverty if
countries act together to implement it. That is the promise of the
multilateral approach. Taking these actions should not be seen as
"concessions" but steps to promote opportunity and productivity
in one's own economy. If all governments take these steps together they
get the twin benefits of higher productivity at home and greater market
opportunities abroad. The sooner they do so, the better.
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(霍斯特•科勒是国际货币基金组织执行董事，詹姆斯•沃尔芬森是世界银行主席。)
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Horst
Kohler is managing director of the IMF. James Wolfensohn is president of
the World Bank
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译者/孙谊
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