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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
在05年第一周的快速下跌后上周大盘在震荡中小幅反弹。部分蓝筹股在盘中一度强势上攻，但反弹效果甚微，市场信心仍然难以提振。在低价蓝筹股龙头效应难以显现的情况下，短线资金又成为市场局部热点的推动力量。从上周基金的操作来看，基金继续呈现小幅度减仓态势，观望态度仍然浓厚。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.86%，比前周的62.50%继续下降了0.63个百分点；封闭式基金上周五加权平均仓位为65.72%，同样比前周的66.09%小幅下降了0.37%。总体来看上周的小幅减仓延续了前一周的态势，显示基金对市场的判断仍未明显改观。从具体基金的仓位变动来看，虽然多数开放式基金仓位仍然变动不大，但部分基金却显示出连续减仓的迹象。与前周测算的数据类似，鹏华旗下的鹏华行业成长、鹏华50、普天收益等开放式基金均显现出比较明显的减仓迹象，仓位下降了4%以上。此外，金鹰优选、泰信策略和广发聚富三只基金仓位下降5%以上，减持较为明显。从数量上来看小幅减持的基金继续占到多数，表明基金的看法仍偏谨慎。
进入2005年的两周来市场并未显现出颇具惯性的一月现象。在一系列政策面因素和心理预期的影响下，市场反而面临着诸多的考验。非流通股转让、新股发行恢复都将对已经十分敏感的估值体系带来影响，在相关的不确定性消除或趋于明朗以前，主流资金观望态度浓厚。尤其从基金的仓位变动和重仓股的相对表现来看，基金的防御态度显露无疑。一是受宏观调控影响较小，业绩预期清晰的公司仍是资金追逐的目标，如机场、港口等板块走势仍然十分稳健。二是绝对和相对估值都接近谷底的公司走势也明显趋稳。从目前情况看市场中的部分公司已经到了即使按全流通也有投资价值的价格，基金对这部分公司可能采取持有为主的策略。其三部分调整幅度过大的周期性行业公司有可能正在重新受到关注。这部分公司市盈率水平已明显偏低，一旦经济增速回升则可能爆发出较大的弹性。在业绩增长性挖掘明显减弱的市场气氛下，持有稳定型的行业和龙头类上市公司、减持不确定性较大的股票应该代表了基金这类主流资金的操作策略。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
融通成长 |
62.25% |
58.60% |
3.64% |
3.80% |
仓位稳定 |
银河理财 |
61.23% |
58.07% |
3.16% |
3.32% |
申万精选 |
57.68% |
54.60% |
3.08% |
3.24% |
德盛精选 |
57.41% |
54.78% |
2.63% |
2.79% |
嘉实增长 |
69.68% |
67.07% |
2.61% |
2.76% |
景顺内需 |
64.67% |
62.81% |
1.86% |
2.02% |
大成价值 |
68.71% |
66.86% |
1.84% |
1.99% |
景顺股票 |
62.31% |
60.58% |
1.73% |
1.88% |
金鹰精选 |
67.21% |
65.62% |
1.59% |
1.74% |
宝盈鸿利 |
66.98% |
65.47% |
1.51% |
1.66% |
长城久恒 |
64.65% |
63.27% |
1.39% |
1.54% |
银河稳健 |
66.67% |
65.47% |
1.21% |
1.35% |
大成稳健 |
70.95% |
69.79% |
1.16% |
1.30% |
易方达策略 |
73.19% |
72.04% |
1.15% |
1.28% |
长盛成长 |
71.31% |
70.21% |
1.10% |
1.24% |
嘉实成长 |
65.75% |
64.76% |
0.99% |
1.14% |
融通 100 |
74.13% |
73.27% |
0.86% |
0.99% |
长盛动态 |
59.12% |
58.62% |
0.50% |
0.66% |
博时精选 |
67.44% |
66.92% |
0.51% |
0.66% |
巨田基础 |
74.60% |
74.36% |
0.24% |
0.36% |
富国动态 |
58.50% |
58.37% |
0.13% |
0.29% |
中融行业 |
42.41% |
42.39% |
0.01% |
0.17% |
国泰金鹰 |
60.48% |
60.59% |
-0.11% |
0.04% |
南方稳健 |
61.62% |
61.87% |
-0.25% |
-0.09% |
嘉实服务 |
59.89% |
60.18% |
-0.29% |
-0.13% |
融通新蓝筹 |
70.31% |
70.61% |
-0.30% |
-0.17% |
海富通收益 |
46.01% |
46.38% |
-0.36% |
-0.20% |
国泰精选 |
62.57% |
63.01% |
-0.45% |
-0.29% |
荷银精选 |
60.78% |
61.24% |
-0.46% |
-0.30% |
景顺平衡 |
48.10% |
48.66% |
-0.56% |
-0.40% |
博时裕富 |
77.58% |
78.24% |
-0.66% |
-0.55% |
华安 180 |
73.59% |
74.27% |
-0.68% |
-0.56% |
易方达平稳 |
61.17% |
62.07% |
-0.90% |
-0.75% |
德盛稳健 |
61.07% |
61.99% |
-0.93% |
-0.77% |
博时价值 |
74.58% |
75.68% |
-1.10% |
-0.98% |
合丰周期 |
72.47% |
73.79% |
-1.33% |
-1.20% |
长城久泰 |
72.27% |
73.66% |
-1.39% |
-1.26% |
合丰稳定 |
61.47% |
62.99% |
-1.52% |
-1.37% |
国泰稳健 |
59.72% |
61.27% |
-1.54% |
-1.39% |
招商平衡 |
46.84% |
48.60% |
-1.76% |
-1.60% |
易方达 50 |
73.25% |
75.21% |
-1.97% |
-1.85% |
华安创新 |
67.79% |
69.86% |
-2.07% |
-1.93% |
诺安平衡 |
65.20% |
67.28% |
-2.08% |
-1.93% |
华夏回报 |
57.54% |
60.26% |
-2.71% |
-2.56% |
华夏成长 |
64.77% |
67.59% |
-2.82% |
-2.68% |
嘉实稳健 |
55.34% |
58.28% |
-2.94% |
-2.78% |
天治增长 |
47.29% |
50.36% |
-3.07% |
-2.91% |
宝康消费 |
62.05% |
65.17% |
-3.12% |
-2.97% |
天同 180 |
72.55% |
75.75% |
-3.20% |
-3.08% |
招商股票 |
65.12% |
68.37% |
-3.24% |
-3.10% |
海富通精选 |
61.57% |
64.83% |
-3.26% |
-3.12% |
宝康灵活 |
50.73% |
54.02% |
-3.28% |
-3.12% |
富国价值 |
63.10% |
66.41% |
-3.31% |
-3.17% |
融通行业 |
58.93% |
62.44% |
-3.51% |
-3.36% |
华宝策略 |
60.59% |
64.59% |
-3.99% |
-3.84% |
合丰成长 |
68.60% |
72.70% |
-4.10% |
-3.97% |
银华优势 |
69.39% |
73.91% |
-4.52% |
-4.39% |
招商先锋 |
60.50% |
65.39% |
-4.89% |
-4.74% |
普天收益 |
56.48% |
61.38% |
-4.90% |
-4.75% |
鹏华 50 |
57.63% |
62.56% |
-4.93% |
-4.78% |
鹏华成长 |
55.43% |
60.57% |
-5.14% |
-4.99% |
金鹰优选 |
74.50% |
80.00% |
-5.50% |
-5.40% |
减持迹象 |
广发聚富 |
68.66% |
74.97% |
-6.31% |
-6.19% |
泰信策略 |
49.68% |
56.48% |
-6.81% |
-6.65% |
加权平均 |
61.86% |
62.50% |
-0.63% |
-0.48% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2005-01-14 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金兴安 |
64.21% |
62.06% |
2.15% |
2.30% |
仓位稳定 |
基金兴华 |
66.45% |
64.55% |
1.91% |
2.06% |
基金泰和 |
65.35% |
63.54% |
1.81% |
1.96% |
基金同智 |
64.25% |
62.46% |
1.79% |
1.94% |
基金融鑫 |
66.75% |
65.46% |
1.30% |
1.44% |
基金裕阳 |
67.65% |
66.48% |
1.17% |
1.32% |
基金兴和 |
66.54% |
65.43% |
1.11% |
1.26% |
基金景业 |
66.55% |
65.45% |
1.09% |
1.24% |
基金天元 |
65.44% |
64.36% |
1.08% |
1.23% |
基金天华 |
66.55% |
65.48% |
1.07% |
1.22% |
基金安瑞 |
66.56% |
65.58% |
0.98% |
1.13% |
基金普润 |
67.68% |
66.75% |
0.92% |
1.07% |
基金同盛 |
66.56% |
65.65% |
0.92% |
1.07% |
基金汉兴 |
64.34% |
63.43% |
0.91% |
1.06% |
基金裕元 |
65.46% |
64.57% |
0.89% |
1.04% |
基金鸿飞 |
65.46% |
64.59% |
0.87% |
1.02% |
基金景福 |
65.46% |
64.64% |
0.82% |
0.97% |
基金兴科 |
65.47% |
64.66% |
0.81% |
0.96% |
基金金盛 |
66.58% |
65.78% |
0.80% |
0.95% |
基金金元 |
67.76% |
67.57% |
0.19% |
0.33% |
基金同益 |
62.42% |
62.42% |
0.00% |
0.15% |
基金裕华 |
70.01% |
70.12% |
-0.11% |
0.03% |
基金裕隆 |
67.80% |
67.99% |
-0.19% |
-0.05% |
基金通宝 |
65.59% |
65.88% |
-0.29% |
-0.14% |
基金科汇 |
67.87% |
68.68% |
-0.81% |
-0.67% |
基金普丰 |
66.77% |
67.65% |
-0.89% |
-0.75% |
基金普华 |
66.77% |
67.65% |
-0.89% |
-0.75% |
基金金鑫 |
65.66% |
66.56% |
-0.90% |
-0.76% |
基金开元 |
64.55% |
65.46% |
-0.91% |
-0.76% |
基金丰和 |
67.89% |
68.88% |
-0.99% |
-0.85% |
基金裕泽 |
67.89% |
68.89% |
-1.00% |
-0.86% |
基金安久 |
64.56% |
65.64% |
-1.08% |
-0.93% |
基金安顺 |
65.68% |
66.75% |
-1.08% |
-0.93% |
基金景博 |
65.68% |
66.75% |
-1.08% |
-0.93% |
基金科瑞 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.94% |
基金久嘉 |
64.57% |
65.68% |
-1.11% |
-0.96% |
基金科翔 |
65.68% |
66.79% |
-1.11% |
-0.96% |
基金金鼎 |
65.68% |
66.80% |
-1.12% |
-0.97% |
基金银丰 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-1.03% |
基金汉盛 |
64.58% |
65.80% |
-1.22% |
-1.07% |
基金景宏 |
69.71% |
71.20% |
-1.49% |
-1.35% |
基金通乾 |
66.87% |
68.71% |
-1.84% |
-1.70% |
基金汉博 |
65.76% |
67.64% |
-1.87% |
-1.73% |
基金久富 |
64.65% |
66.55% |
-1.89% |
-1.75% |
基金金泰 |
62.44% |
64.35% |
-1.92% |
-1.77% |
基金普惠 |
63.66% |
65.67% |
-2.01% |
-1.86% |
基金安信 |
63.56% |
65.58% |
-2.02% |
-1.87% |
基金鸿阳 |
64.68% |
66.76% |
-2.08% |
-1.94% |
基金隆元 |
63.57% |
65.68% |
-2.11% |
-1.96% |
基金科讯 |
64.69% |
66.88% |
-2.19% |
-2.04% |
基金景阳 |
60.25% |
62.47% |
-2.22% |
-2.07% |
基金汉鼎 |
64.78% |
67.76% |
-2.98% |
-2.84% |
基金兴业 |
65.90% |
68.96% |
-3.06% |
-2.92% |
基金同德 |
67.02% |
70.20% |
-3.18% |
-3.04% |
加权平均 |
65.72% |
66.09% |
-0.37% |
-0.22% |
仓位稳定 |
* 封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2005-01-14 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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