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117家公司连续9季业绩增长

http://www.sina.com.cn 2008年05月09日 02:40 中国证券网-上海证券报

  ⊙华泰证券研究所

  连续盈利、高速增长是上市公司成长性的重要标志,对公司、行业甚至整个宏观经济的分析都具有指导性作用。从这些高速成长的公司入手、能够发现中国资本市场最具活力和未来仍有潜力的行业和公司。在对连续9个季度保持同比增长的117家公司研究中,我们认为以下特点值得投资者重点关注:

  第一、连续增长公司的行业聚集度很高,即在现有的市场情况下,利润总是向某些公司尤其是行业集中。在117家公司中,机械占有16家,商业贸易12家,医药12家,交运设备11家,化工、建材、金融、轻工、食品、有色金属都是6家,房地产、家电都是5家,这些行业总共达到97家,占比为83%。数据清楚显示以上这些行业成为在本轮经济成长周期中最大的收益者。在估值上看,这117家公司的平均市盈率是39倍,而同期沪深300的市盈率为28倍,虽然估值高于沪深300平均水平,但是考虑到这些公司的高成长性和PEG大多小于1,我们认为这些公司的估值相对于大盘的平均水平安全边际要高,抗风险能力更强。

  第二、消费升级导致消费品和终端行业利润增长迅速。我们注意到在117家公司中,商业贸易、轻工、食品饮料、家电等行业公司多达29家,占比高达1/4。这些行业的共性在于他们的产品或服务直接面对的是普通消费者,在消费加速和升级过程中,这些公司的利润会随着消费者消费能力的加强而提升。这些公司能够在通胀高企的情况下,具有较强的成本上涨的转移能力,特别是食品饮料、轻工行业的转移能力更强。此外,商业贸易行业的高成长更表明中国商业零售业正在经历着深刻的变革,以全国或大区域连锁的企业能够利用管理、物流和成本优势挤压传统的单一的地方性商业企业,这一点在王府井苏宁电器武汉中百百联股份等表现最为明显。

  第三、一些传统的行业或公司鲜有入围。一般认为,像采掘、信息服务、房地产等行业被认为是利润较高的行业。特别是近期石油、煤炭的价格快速成长,但是我们并没有观察到煤炭石油资源型公司出现。可见从长期看,这些行业的周期性较强,公司受外部市场因素的影响很大,难以长期保持高速稳定的增长。而房地产的表现则有点让人意外,一般认为过去的2-3年是中国房地产发展的最黄金的时期,各家公司的利润都非常的高。但是,实际的结果是除了万科A以外,真正从事房地产开发的地产商并没有出现在表中。我们认为,除了房地产行业营运周期长,不可能每一个季度都有稳定的成长外,公司的一些财务处理方式也掩盖了一些实际的情况。

  第四,新兴行业表现值得肯定。我们发现医药、信息设备和服务、电子元器件等相对弱势的行业很多公司成为成长明星,比如信息行业的用友软件东软股份大族激光等,医药行业的科华生物康美药业。这些行业要求高技术和高投入,面对的国外对手优势明显。这些新兴行业公司的表现显示出国内公司的技术、研发水平、管理能力有了长足的进步。

  第五,交运设备和机械的继续强势。中国的机械行业一直保持较快的发展,比如工程机械的柳工山推股份太原重工,电力设备行业的特变电工、卧龙电器、思源电器、天威宝变等。这些公司在近些年的基础建设高潮中充分收益,产品快速升级,在面对国外竞争对手时产品不但不差还有巨大的成本优势。在交运设备上,载重汽车、乘用车等整车行业并未出现,上榜的包括客车、船舶制造以及汽车零配件。客车的需求上升是与中国运输行业的特点所决定,中国客运运输近年来持续紧张,而随着高速公路的加快组网,公路客运对客车的需求上升,刺激客车业两大龙头的宇通客车金龙汽车的稳定发展。此外,中国汽车零部件发展的条件显然要好于整车行业,中国乘用车行业大多集中在合资公司手中,而零部件的发展空间广阔,成本优势更容易显现出来。船舶制造业目前正处于长期的景气周期,我们认为未来的发展空间有可能下降。

  综上所述,从业绩连续增长的公司来看,公司的行业充分反映了中国经济的特点。也证明了自上而下的分析方面不管在国外还是在国内都有有效的,价值投资必须建立在真正的优质公司的基础上。

  连续9季净利润同比增长个股一览

  股票代码股票名称单季净利润同比增长率(%)

  2008Q12007Q42007Q32007Q22007Q12006Q42006Q32006Q22006Q1

  000001深发展A87.6788.1375.69142.25142.632907.70104.556455.0943.09

  000002万 科A17.28267.9380.0626.7857.7566.2580.1153.2954.09

  000026飞亚达A26.4448.24201.7871.52146.9730.2169.5195.59547.87

  000157中联重科72.83319.71213.4566.67193.9648.1965.6390.321.85

  000417合肥百货14.14113.85141.5418.2482.7651.5895.2170.7347.85

  000423东阿阿胶57.0138.0722.3425.3944.59104.3820.4526.711.24

  000516开元控股30.1770.60202.9676.5223.440.0412.1643.0626.98

  000527美的电器41.87101.05207.98111.07177.2348.4130.2228.3629.86

  000528柳工31.8437.4167.6981.0836.8179.27119.3877.8429.37

  000538云南白药18.2370.769.096.334.9819.5514.6412.1637.04

  000540中天城投295.51867.971126.02369.5335.8997.93846.87917.58777.69

  000568泸州老窖261.67238.47236.6540.4637.70730.312716.93547.6094.87

  000612焦作万方31.8951.22176.84125.65364.97278.50271.33307.49442.71

  000651格力电器165.79288.0647.4262.7346.3746.1223.6613.8418.27

  000655金岭矿业227.6017.85129.75649.70827.25237.28275.7667.8073.39

  000680山推股份102.3874.89143.1281.9155.51143.54123.28103.16410.50

  001696宗申动力59.54107.5471.32132.0547.7215.761.5493.5518.06

  000713丰乐种业12.64199.8572.2310.403.4511.97178.8410.0511.26

  000729燕京啤酒31.42124.9935.6626.7011.16306.135.125.225.51

  000759武汉中百52.5643.8867.37144.0751.1540.9860.0387.4978.45

  000789江西水泥300.00103.88265.81291.64239.98117.17107.15104.44104.90

  000823超声电子7.2014.4257.4149.5321.1337.0310.8725.78560.98

  000826合加资源40.43121.1350.31110.6270.9134.19186.8639.5639.87

  000829天音控股1.1345.7273.9983.12151.04193.2398.1284.7726.77

  000859国风塑业148.315.023.1447.4074.1645.40367.22152.2071.55

  000869张 裕A39.1049.6547.0555.0830.3435.8846.1672.0837.98

  000895双汇发展0.6826.8222.6320.9621.3121.7018.5223.0230.75

  000897津滨发展95.8198.307.3988.68120.90205.60111.25219.5620.10

  000910大亚科技1.7616.7733.9756.35191.17426.13199.05121.407.27

  000952广济药业1144.201403.341696.63760.5375.8190.8960.47357.4324.12

  000969安泰科技23.3149.3330.1219.1716.6854.8612.7014.911.10

  000980金马股份30.6845.41539.4589.66276.8044.9953.3459.5752.00

  000987广州友谊40.4146.9520.2133.5735.5285.8841.6541.8228.05

  600000浦发银行187.4075.1760.2868.2247.6326.0227.7358.9828.98

  600015华夏银行80.43145.0519.5749.8521.364.5811.6912.9120.24

  600016民生银行122.4855.4087.1275.2146.5983.1810.0647.9124.44

  600030中信证券101.03182.261209.39453.871230.59449.37327.49820.281039.81

  600033福建高速55.3639.8023.4437.3715.0734.1514.605.5420.15

  600036招商银行156.6699.79130.64146.1887.48271.4353.8437.5824.49

  600063皖维高新199.01152.5890.3064.8634.65789.1530.0551.4846.58

  股票代码股票名称单季净利润同比增长率(%)

  2008Q12007Q42007Q32007Q22007Q12006Q42006Q32006Q22006Q1

  600066宇通客车470.10122.9129.5738.8328.9830.814.2611.3623.77

  600089特变电工157.34271.00155.52210.473.4068.0223.7922.45218.90

  600100同方股份56.72499.4096.24103.3810.59110.03200.088.6734.70

  600117西宁特钢142.2240.4533.8946.8452.8736.4764.1950.4023.50

  600138中 青 旅7.7738.23105.0057.28158.043.71150.5517.80242.87

  600141兴发集团447.6646.25165.9446.1346.005.2246.6568.6522.78

  600150中国船舶874.28542.054868.82108.8471.94138.3425.5160.70147.09

  600153建发股份35.3739.53135.3379.8145.27157.15230.1569.3838.67

  600158中体产业2051.49308.02255.3321.766.2927.2877.080.143.33

  600169太原重工76.93220.37291.04216.47290.54144.88257.09222.32211.95

  600218全柴动力5.13326.8890.8746.6032.188.4719.519.7611.40

  600219南山铝业494.82599.44425.071110.7124.3274.3824.808.2811.12

  600308华泰股份24.441.897.8575.7112.1431.7623.8920.842.09

  600315上海家化29.49430.6788.8329.5752.35200.3825.92100.942.32

  600321国栋建设3.1963.7942.42118.223.32424.42129.4250.6155.94

  600322天房发展503.1591.4123.3199.1230.2233.97297.5510.0461.36

  600332广州药业50.77107.3315.1837.3425.5554.3713.5316.7315.05

  600350山东高速15.7648.7126.4429.9914.4039.0827.0436.8022.28

  600361华联综超16.0418.5522.5322.2422.0722.3630.4628.3839.13

  600377宁沪高速3.2736.7944.6031.1656.7630.9794.1497.3638.96

  600391成发科技47.07218.6225.6629.58108.98107.5453.0468.5338.28

  600432吉恩镍业18.79242.60197.51226.42288.20143.8785.629.275.77

  600439瑞 贝 卡35.38142.7799.9668.0241.9547.2437.9219.0545.31

  600456宝钛股份20.1632.1977.8184.843.0877.6661.49214.31185.34

  600479千金药业28.50180.56301.1647.0829.8522.907.1331.0314.08

  600480凌云股份49.3043.0036.4563.0529.9072.09185.9320.0467.74

  600511国药股份27.7942.6252.0464.9457.08122.7881.8576.8130.05

  600517置信电气54.44242.77111.3199.16240.64374.22299.33653.04102.00

  600518康美药业171.7683.9933.1037.1228.2331.5749.2048.2616.33

  600519贵州茅台62.92124.24114.25101.4919.2432.9455.9539.4221.79

  600525长园新材21.4823.3536.6668.7330.77206.30104.8122.2534.46

  600527江南高纤41.6860.2041.9352.3376.60347.092.2015.165.30

  600529山东药玻24.4132.5217.3413.989.771.1719.4125.099.84

  600550天威保变275.44215.5025.03166.00136.729.41155.41234.91203.43

  600557康缘药业57.1569.8067.3850.0510.879.3538.9167.5430.90

  600560金自天正42.6251.75103.3820.6324.0611.19120.6893.7174.71

  600570恒生电子86.9385.52225.05636.236758.91478.041183.6435.2358.97

  600580卧龙电气61.966.2870.1932.3428.9014.4325.0330.8320.06

  600582天地科技125.29113.4930.17106.88286.4268.03233.1078.7845.12

  600584长电科技83.59136.2536.3840.9332.13155.0978.7627.0139.38

  股票代码股票名称单季净利润同比增长率(%)

  2008Q12007Q42007Q32007Q22007Q12006Q42006Q32006Q22006Q1

  600585海螺水泥111.4964.8486.2398.1636.85234.10179.99292.23617.26

  600586金晶科技74.36218.52397.60277.6068.741392.73159.9212.800.48

  600588用友软件43.73120.83192.60151.857.1779.29112.1326.67120.18

  600589广东榕泰19.6350.4847.9352.7851.8262.7158.6469.7423.72

  600592龙溪股份31.1850.2312.1619.9815.2625.371.015.6131.04

  600612中国铅笔27.4792.2428.7376.7682.66620.5117.91115.2047.55

  600631百联股份16.6238.7113.07125.779.5332.75105.8126.0119.46

  600660福耀玻璃19.0065.7648.1433.8566.18111.0246.2768.064.31

  600685广船国际67.72140.6295.48606.26392.6275.00591.70277.75251.35

  600686金龙汽车159.23143.5250.3346.2355.8193.1657.8617.9953.41

  600690青岛海尔41.69194.0580.03133.9745.6372.4726.2421.3732.63

  600693东百集团103.4725.6773.6424.5231.2632.1077.6941.7523.01

  600697欧亚集团49.0529.2831.5435.8626.3125.9121.8325.890.87

  600710常林股份126.57241.5987.04246.09121.25969.16162.63577.84315.01

  600718东软股份153.13161.94108.62165.64274.0420.2128.9363.8276.79

  600737中粮屯河84.18332.40186.3692.6356.31111.50262.72105.67168.39

  600742一汽四环147.01470.36928.538.95343.14102.18105.61250.52107.74

  600761安徽合力1.808.6442.0644.8323.2097.8651.2554.1591.27

  600779水 井 坊91.5963.22200.431746.0944.8131.0934.1557.5324.81

  600801华新水泥20.98151.64101.33127.99165.6539.4734.12164.72181.82

  600820隧道股份54.5370.6155.0521.9665.4127.272.2333.856.59

  600843上工申贝7.48123.192715.982120.40683.30101.89100.65102.55102.04

  600845宝信软件64.7885.9959.1561.0823.1848.448.5953.4828.76

  600859王 府 井47.8424.4446.6855.5745.25617.32409.20839.1651.53

  600879火箭股份56.5950.389.1724.7715.485.0651.0230.7523.62

  600895张江高科45.6427.2732.34200.47219.9288.454.0617.7116.84

  002003伟星股份33.64132.2674.6951.6311.28306.6456.3877.5233.89

  002007华兰生物36.56120.4452.5044.070.7329.8729.9060.65110.96

  002008大族激光32.6428.3091.20133.48141.36118.1329.8922.8755.97

  002022科华生物55.2161.7975.4949.0742.6220.3035.6338.7433.25

  002024苏宁电器241.2782.68105.80103.41263.28109.8793.86107.25121.03

  002028思源电气319.12106.3995.2048.6251.64119.5743.7635.0128.44

  002032苏 泊 尔38.6477.4562.6355.1966.6457.5235.1329.0360.14

  002038双鹭药业57.95167.27162.93196.05140.63158.4914.7827.0141.20

  600978宜华木业43.6250.5080.0860.1779.5262.95100.0254.0936.37

  600983合肥三洋52.4973.9926.3624.3512.2112.5126.7823.9051.13

  600987航民股份1.62110.9041.0723.65189.66129.5572.32137.6448.67

  数据来源:聚源数据

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