百只个股盈利预测获调升 内生增长更显价值

　　新浪提示：本文属于研究报告栏目，仅为分析人士对一只股票的个人观点和看法，并非正式的新闻报道，新浪不保证其真实性和客观性，一切有关该股的有效信息，以沪深交易所的公告为准，敬请投资者注意风险。

　　⊙德邦证券 郑骁俊

　　随着第三季度季报的公布日临近，上市公司全年的业绩增长情况也越来越趋向明晰，因此机构在对原先的盈利预测作出调整的同时，也吸引了市场资金的注意力。从统计结果可以看到，近一个月来业绩预测调整较大的个股的涨幅是相当明显的，比如上电股份（600627），现有的预测数据几乎比原先的增长了一倍，反映在股价上就是涨幅接近1.5倍，类似的股票还很多，东方航空近期的暴涨可以说也有这个因素在。

　　从选股角度出发，我们认为企业自身的内生性业绩增长才是价值投资的主要依据，由于多种因素综合，这种增长方式是温和并且累进的，其阶段性的增幅并不会过于吸引市场眼球，但反而会使其股价得到长线资金的关注，股价也细水长流式地上涨。如处于排行中段位置的三一重工、中国玻纤等个股，虽然短期内涨幅不明显，但业绩预测的调整是稳定增长的，而且动态市盈率始终维持在30多倍，低于整个市场的平均水平。打开二级市场股价走势图，我们发现股价基本都是处在稳定的上升通道中，累计涨幅已经相当可观。

　　从基本面来分析，业绩预测调整较大的品种基本都存在着外生性的增长刺激，以上电股份为例，8月初刊登公告停牌，复牌后公布换股合并方案，其整体上市的题材促使机构对其业绩进行调整，还有调整幅度最大的*ST东方，也是在复牌后公布重大资产重组方案，之后涨势就一飞冲天。所以，这些个股从具体操作来看，实际是由于其拥有足够市场想象的题材，因而得到了短线资金的极力推动，换句话说，投机性大于投资性，因此对普通投资者来说并不具备可操作性。

　　由于大盘蓝筹股的上涨，以工行、中行等为代表的一线品种的市盈率已经明显偏高，因此在当前市场进入调整期的同时，相对短线涨幅滞后并且市盈率比较合理的二线蓝筹已经开始成为吸引主流资金的价值洼地。从统计结果中我们可以看到，近一个月涨幅在20%左右的二线品种的动态PE大多在20倍-30倍左右，并且业绩向上调整幅度大多比较低，可见动态的市盈率依然是衡量个股的一个重要标准，如处在统计结果末端的大多是金属、能源、医药等二线蓝筹的温床。

　　总而言之，市场进入高位震荡后，短线操作的难度也在相应增加，投机性质较重的题材炒作仍然有丰厚的收益，但把握起来没有具体标准，所以作为普通投资者，笔者仍然建议从行业自身业绩增长着手，挖掘可持续投资的中线机会，选择价值被低估的蓝筹品种。

　　最近一个月份机构研究报告业绩预测向上调整最大的股票

　　基本资料市场最新预测平均值2007年预测净利调整变动(%)近一个月涨幅

　　序号代码简称2007*EPS2007*PE2008*EPS2008*PE最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前

　　1000725*ST东方A0.253.090.2936.91730.49%730.49%9359.92%44.36%

　　2601919中国远洋0.6962.430.7854.92165.07%174.43%--97.24%

　　3000887ST中鼎0.5627.60.7919.4116.46%124.79%--13.73%

　　4600627上电股份2.6226.834.814.64103.83%99.61%99.61%150.51%

　　5600830大红鹰0.3256.890.4936.66102.17%102.17%--65.20%

　　6600115东方航空0.09236.270.3268.4368.80%68.80%42.21%126.67%

　　7600363联创光电0.2153.230.3135.9249.89%77.61%37.43%5.89%

　　8002011盾安环境0.2891.831.9213.3647.68%182.29%182.29%0.51%

　　9002065东华合创0.9141.641.1233.7345.29%53.48%52.73%40.10%

　　10000927一汽夏利0.4339.710.6824.7443.46%39.55%24.53%54.98%

　　11600739辽宁成大1.1547.661.3740.0737.68%163.42%163.42%-7.46%

　　12000511银基发展0.258.090.2644.7836.04%36.04%18.35%-7.61%

　　13600058五矿发展0.9252.341.6629.0835.12%35.12%35.12%54.27%

　　14600031三一重工1.1543.761.533.4132.48%54.27%59.48%-1.33%

　　15600169太原重工0.5262.610.7444.0332.35%32.35%68.25%22.36%

　　16900948伊泰B股2.655.453.653.9631.39%31.39%--64.46%

　　17002068黑猫股份0.934.311.1127.8127.23%27.23%27.23%20.88%

　　18000541佛山照明0.7135.470.7434.1827.08%27.08%28.11%-0.12%

　　19601628中国人寿0.8567.771.1450.7526.41%26.41%44.62%18.35%

　　20000402金融街0.8640.751.2228.8525.32%30.67%31.36%-10.99%

　　21000718苏宁环球0.759.552.6715.5924.67%72.18%72.18%-3.08%

　　22000951中国重汽1.7839.532.3829.4924.35%41.67%53.26%5.91%

　　23000527美的电器0.7845.691.0135.2523.57%28.40%60.28%10.24%

　　24600166福田汽车0.440.760.532.3123.56%28.43%122.84%10.11%

　　25000728S*ST化二4.023.324.223.1722.94%----0.00%

　　26600682S宁新百0.3477.490.4459.7421.79%21.79%21.79%1.15%

　　27600570恒生电子0.4187.560.5861.3520.74%20.74%37.78%53.02%

　　28600594益佰制药0.5227.870.5526.6220.70%33.73%10.49%-8.95%

　　29600010包钢股份0.2638.590.3528.2120.65%20.65%20.65%27.83%

　　30000338潍柴动力3.2329.273.8724.4720.45%26.37%--10.00%

　　31000912泸天化0.8725.061.0620.419.77%19.77%19.72%24.63%

　　32600688S上石化0.3851.30.4543.5118.83%0.03%4.68%28.44%

　　33000655金岭矿业0.6856.571.8620.7318.34%18.34%18.34%57.55%

　　34002054德美化工0.6633.940.8825.3218.02%50.55%59.60%3.50%

　　35600176中国玻纤0.5747.740.8432.2817.58%21.26%15.00%35.47%

　　36600408安泰集团0.4350.410.6135.4117.07%44.50%44.50%35.93%

　　37002063远光软件0.4741.320.6330.9516.63%35.24%39.61%-11.27%

　　38601111中国国航0.2995.750.4660.2716.49%47.15%56.55%78.37%

　　39600150中国船舶7.131.9610.7921.0316.28%96.16%258.53%24.38%

　　40000989九芝堂0.3342.540.345.5416.28%68.39%68.39%-0.08%

　　41000513丽珠集团0.8338.240.8338.0116.04%16.04%107.81%-10.07%

　　42600875东方电机4.5118.474.7917.3715.91%21.89%53.37%11.81%

　　43000002万科A0.5555.30.8834.6114.61%17.98%23.70%-7.89%

　　44600310桂东电力0.7244.890.7344.514.49%14.49%14.49%-0.71%

　　45002067景兴纸业0.3347.550.5628.1314.47%14.81%26.23%27.90%

　　46600718东软股份1.1735.841.6225.8414.07%14.07%16.11%-4.69%

　　47600201金宇集团0.3751.250.5137.1113.24%13.24%14.39%35.49%

　　48000608阳光股份0.3857.090.5738.5712.76%12.76%-1.69%5.94%

　　49600006东风汽车0.2836.730.3628.6112.50%12.50%12.96%22.09%

　　50002038双鹭药业0.8346.591.0835.5112.02%35.67%52.38%-9.10%

　　51600459贵研铂业1.7943.682.4731.6611.93%11.93%24.17%11.98%

　　52000066长城电脑0.2266.060.2949.0811.77%10.69%-21.92%13.46%

　　基本资料市场最新预测平均值2007年预测净利调整变动(%)近一个月涨幅

　　序号代码简称2007*EPS2007*PE2008*EPS2008*PE最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前

　　53600380健康元0.5933.140.6728.8111.47%10.90%74.67%-0.72%

　　54600357承德钒钛0.5342.560.8526.811.35%21.47%21.47%58.44%

　　55000429粤高速A0.3926.890.4324.0411.23%27.43%24.25%7.00%

　　56600804鹏博士0.2696.620.5347.3710.83%119.56%119.56%-2.10%

　　57601398工商银行0.2230.360.2922.4510.60%15.78%17.78%-7.17%

　　58600170上海建工0.4240.880.4835.910.58%10.58%--19.00%

　　59600858银座股份0.6866.640.9150.0210.38%7.74%11.03%6.17%

　　60000825太钢不锈1.3922.881.6519.39.89%14.63%63.26%23.73%

　　61600600青岛啤酒0.4680.170.6160.569.67%12.04%33.81%31.50%

　　62000559万向钱潮0.2359.120.346.419.47%17.52%-17.76%6.85%

　　63600581八一钢铁0.4541.310.5632.829.38%9.38%9.38%87.66%

　　64600517置信电气0.6973.721.1842.829.36%8.21%10.30%6.14%

　　65600260凯乐科技0.4927.540.4828.599.07%9.07%9.07%-7.08%

　　66000635英力特0.6834.961.2718.838.86%15.54%15.54%22.52%

　　67600815厦工股份0.3441.440.4828.858.71%196.98%196.98%11.90%

　　68600251冠农股份0.16161.290.2893.678.67%8.67%8.67%2.29%

　　69002003伟星股份0.6250.040.8536.268.29%21.10%31.03%6.58%

　　70000717韶钢松山0.5925.570.721.667.87%24.59%36.82%44.48%

　　71600256广汇股份0.3844.750.4538.197.70%47.85%38.62%11.94%

　　72600690青岛海尔0.5251.530.738.287.68%11.99%1.10%24.60%

　　73600177雅戈尔0.740.470.6444.857.52%7.52%48.40%-5.26%

　　74000932华菱管线0.6621.510.7618.87.28%7.28%8.60%25.08%

　　75600837海通证券1.0742.341.2735.827.28%20.72%---8.95%

　　76000528柳工1.1135.921.3828.996.73%13.36%23.19%27.57%

　　77600755厦门国贸0.6239.780.7731.956.70%6.70%6.70%2.71%

　　78000709唐钢股份0.9130.771.0825.976.69%8.35%20.19%48.70%

　　79600895张江高科0.3274.720.4948.86.21%3.83%2.70%8.89%

　　80600498烽火通信0.2361.290.3144.66.12%12.26%30.26%-1.57%

　　81000686东北证券1.7828.682.1623.656.08%----213.18%

　　82600409三友化工0.5531.250.724.35.96%16.81%40.57%47.12%

　　83600000浦发银行1.1742.691.827.625.87%7.02%11.86%10.64%

　　84000831关铝股份0.9336.471.3325.375.82%2.48%7.72%61.20%

　　85600509天富热电0.3788.840.8140.925.81%5.81%13.03%14.45%

　　86000792盐湖钾肥1.3738.211.6631.645.78%5.60%11.02%28.30%

　　87000027深能源A1.1823.691.419.955.75%0.45%14.10%3.98%

　　88600206有研硅股0.559.040.8136.515.66%14.40%75.07%0.37%

　　89000905厦门港务0.2836.860.3232.675.65%11.98%18.39%11.04%

　　90600087南京水运0.639.580.9923.75.63%7.85%31.22%49.10%

　　91000758中色股份0.7164.810.8951.795.59%5.59%8.68%43.86%

　　92601318中国平安1.7667.072.449.295.53%22.29%41.49%28.04%

　　93600069银鸽投资0.4544.720.5834.595.49%5.49%4.49%58.25%

　　94000625长安汽车0.4944.140.7429.345.49%1.90%5.50%22.87%

　　95002013中航精机0.376.750.3958.955.39%5.39%-6.40%-7.59%

　　96600479千金药业0.6248.470.7838.195.39%5.33%5.45%10.08%

　　97600153建发股份0.9231.311.126.175.22%5.22%36.29%12.92%

　　98600432吉恩镍业2.4736.51329.965.01%11.07%16.17%44.48%

　　99600460士兰微0.2159.470.2451.034.96%4.96%-0.77%-3.69%

　　100600308华泰股份1.0931.881.3825.064.91%8.79%8.36%33.93%

　　统计周期：2007-08-21～2007-09-21

　　数据来源：上海朝阳永续投资咨询有限公司 （Go-Goal业绩 预测系统）

　　www.go-goal.com;www.china-yjy.com

    新浪声明：本版文章内容纯属作者个人观点，仅供投资者参考，并不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。