炒新谨防过度投机

　　□港澳资讯 陈晓栋

　　随着全流通背景下的首只新股中工国际正式挂牌上市，接下来将会有更多精彩的好戏；中工国际当日股价从17元左右一度被狂拉到50元，收于31.97元，着实让所有预测股价的机构“大跌眼镜”。纵观我国股市新股发行大部分股票当日股价都有着不俗的表现，其主要原因是由于我国新股的发行市盈率一般都远低于市场平均水平，新股上市后估值自然向市场 水平靠拢，这就使得新股上市首日股价几乎全部上涨，而且涨幅颇 高。再加上我国市场成熟度较低，市场投机心理较为严重，这些使得我国新股上市大都有较好的表现。但也并非完全如此；诸如G*ST天宏、*ST东海Ａ等股票，投机者可就难以如愿了，这些都是投机氛围严重所造成的。

　　近日中工国际的上市也是让人“大跌眼镜”，当日涨幅达到332％，尽管大部分人预测该股后期将会连续跌停，但由于中工国际是在大盘初现缩量反弹的背景下上市，它的表现也还是说明了目前市场的一些情况：

　　一、该股的暴涨显示了目前国内股市资金面非常充裕。二、中工国际的巨大赚钱效应将使更多资金蜂拥一级市场。在中工国际拉开“新老划断”新股申购序幕后，目前

新股发行有加速之势。由于目前新股实行现金申购，中工国际首日暴涨带来的财富效应必将激发投资者参与申购新股的热情。三、中工国际最终选择了跌停出货的办法，账面获利丰厚的首日买入者会争先恐后地抢跑道卖出。在经过恶炒后的凶悍出货迫使该股价值回归的同时，在很大程度上制约了大盘的反弹动能，从而助长了市场二次探底的杀跌动能。因为，在一小部分资金赚钱的同时，大部分资金会被这种非理性的跌停出逃所拖累，并使后来者成为深深的“套中人”。四、炒作新股成为新盈利模式的突破口。

　　总之，当目前大盘正处在二次上攻和对千七头部回抽确认的十字路口，作为全流通第一新股中工国际的“上蹿下跳”注定会被市场所瞩目；而中工国际上市只是“大菜”前的“开胃凉盘”，中行发行的真正重头戏还在后面；如果说中工国际上市还只能算搅乱了目前市场反弹的格局，那么中行发行上市才是最终市场走向的确定者。

　　部分上市首日涨幅较大个股市场表现一览

　　

股票代码股票名称上市后涨跌幅（％）市盈率（倍）市净率（倍）

　　首日(%)5日(%)30日(%)60日(%)120日(%)250日(%)至今(%)

　　000790G华神3857.003573.003710.003130.002708.002239.001591.68463.242.62

　　000819岳阳兴长3385.002774.003300.003116.003400.003700.002964.6052.204.45

　　600393G东华3300.003170.003260.003363.002948.002436.001057.1019.931.69

　　600157鲁润股份2675.002298.002511.002627.003368.603082.402216.6094.123.58

　　600101明星电力2130.002072.002005.001664.002588.003549.801275.72-4.741.57

　　000811G冰轮2101.001870.002411.001754.002715.201863.802233.8322.952.39

　　000700G模塑2089.001991.002460.002108.001390.001832.002060.4898.691.07

　　600137*ST长控1745.001530.001449.001490.001666.401668.80501.20-6.28-0.52

　　000703世纪光华1619.001778.001652.001399.001441.801560.10433.00-23.442.29

　　000765*ST华信1494.001512.001398.001580.001518.002000.00530.98-20.440.00

　　000719ST鑫安1428.001365.001242.00921.00835.00999.00319.65-3.652.68

　　001696G宗申1344.001316.001472.001104.00733.301479.501880.8010.552.32

　　000675ST银山1340.001385.001270.001430.002127.002375.202065.80-16.850.00

　　000677G海龙1236.001312.001212.001344.001225.001145.003206.0817.521.79

　　000805*ST炎黄1217.001165.001223.00860.001282.001289.0098.00-4.740.00

　　600786东方锅炉1070.00937.00786.00823.00564.00581.004767.6812.405.81

　　000693*ST聚友1008.00992.001015.00749.00553.70693.40218.09-4.543.77

　　000838蓝星石化944.00790.00869.00899.701063.501497.701105.10133.416.83

　　000809中汇医药906.001024.00830.00726.00736.00980.00432.0069.584.41

　　600783G鲁信878.001020.00838.001203.00838.60933.50844.0545.402.30

　　000803金宇车城874.00953.001354.001370.001118.001137.50738.50-7.673.80

　　000835G圣达829.82583.24629.24493.57503.70589.86225.1339.363.32

　　600109成都建投770.00655.00613.00576.00720.001185.00553.00413.792.18

　　600139绵阳高新551.00473.00590.00782.001068.00904.20284.70-6.997.26

　　600345长江通信476.77466.50379.83437.29387.53264.6730.00126.451.78

　　000736*ST重实469.09389.39249.39219.09211.52422.73-2.06-18.45-0.54

　　000970G三环469.07471.87526.93484.00458.27735.951142.5637.966.93

　　600161G天坛429.48457.74390.91350.12396.31624.521100.4571.097.79

　　600551科大创新428.25412.50337.00355.50376.75425.2579.75196.354.42

　　600419G*ST天宏413.79383.10316.90281.38214.48191.38-12.92-3.111.54

　　000695G滨能410.00423.18503.18504.55297.09339.73888.0459.045.11

　　600290苏福马405.21362.29343.13299.17382.29395.63205.15-32.446.24

　　600247G物华404.17355.42363.54293.75376.46267.29172.4831.172.15

　　600070G富润394.69261.27189.12171.19148.28252.36140.7839.821.32

　　000752西藏发展389.05299.70266.57222.19230.77299.41548.1158.133.07

　　000711G天伦383.86390.46314.43216.63214.35270.61111.31164.291.11

　　000806G银河363.34347.80345.95318.07223.82154.73236.37227.901.19

　　000065G北方360.80339.70370.60278.14420.10431.50470.6040.322.15

　　600371华冠科技358.21360.81389.34389.91356.48211.31260.45151.484.24

　　000721西安饮食349.52312.38192.06138.10138.10226.67196.3550.033.06

　　600265景谷林业344.70333.53255.49281.50266.09212.3330.06106.931.90

　　000078G海王343.84388.99363.81406.72683.77597.57242.63-2.041.52

　　000938G紫光341.87340.77395.06649.53628.10635.0577.36756.902.66

　　600468G百利340.15317.88267.42216.67184.70160.76153.4356.673.33

　　600243青海华鼎339.56376.48394.51298.46374.51265.4919.3485.881.88

　　600057G夏新334.54217.38168.17184.65220.77485.33273.45-2.162.29

　　002051中工国际332.03249.8669.3912.56

　　600590G泰豪326.05359.87276.68272.06184.45144.75171.6432.452.05

　　002008大族激光324.89200.22171.52133.04112.6145.98398.6359.228.55

　　600378天科股份323.86280.09289.36363.53339.62175.4455.42348.432.80

　　000697咸阳偏转323.36296.64425.38348.74281.48547.3914.90-5.361.55

　　000812陕西金叶319.39293.35221.10240.49240.08215.48113.1965.042.38

　　600796G生化317.15362.96241.33190.45177.97270.37622.6245.913.02

　　600373G鑫新311.57339.18388.81327.61345.52259.3380.1536.581.57

　　000988G华工310.23304.08349.36334.41433.48264.3172.3152.002.55

　　600100G同方309.42255.07154.11137.92345.41555.80597.2448.341.66

　　600356G恒丰308.46267.42268.12249.08123.55123.4144.3713.541.44

　　600288G大恒307.22303.33315.00242.89251.33145.6756.8632.311.71

　　600379宝光股份305.07286.23383.70352.90327.54246.0147.46302.392.19

　　600520三佳科技303.82250.44282.21282.65283.09159.1239.65252.542.15

　　600185G海星296.79361.54333.33307.91305.77387.189.8268.781.40

　　600381贤成实业293.13303.17329.23277.46193.13163.2024.10-4.743.46

　　000716南方控股292.53438.93326.93221.92213.92279.2015.51-9.882.95

　　000613*ST东海Ａ292.19230.63307.19260.63149.38147.19-34.6992.31-14.42

　　000977G浪潮285.34251.23288.72270.04268.22239.562.91147.451.33

　　600211西藏药业283.33248.00213.00228.17257.33264.6789.50-32.993.56

　　000799酒鬼酒281.13255.88222.62235.75380.00332.81-26.04-5.481.96

　　000861海印股份277.46304.43280.35257.03202.50261.88122.7449.112.96

　　600122宏图高科275.64405.30329.65284.27244.93197.2860.53125.871.82

　　600568潜江制药270.10246.49254.12207.22102.1686.60-21.60-14.611.25

　　600444G国通269.78212.72247.51154.6782.5056.4665.7421.761.58

　　000723天宇电气268.45228.45230.00155.17156.21187.9347.19110.082.87

　　000766*ST通金266.11277.59267.50319.09399.59308.02-7.73121.3121.20

　　600567G山鹰264.38234.64262.42291.83280.72160.1377.2621.071.46

　　600208G中宝264.20277.80247.80248.20203.00223.2019.97135.651.22

　　000705浙江震元264.04250.11187.64306.07276.99260.4070.86111.941.33

　　000070G特发263.29292.53273.29269.62240.51212.53-27.84-5.741.57

　　000858G

五粮液262.69324.24276.24214.69170.82128.84890.4646.154.78

　　600363G联创260.36297.90282.88291.74191.59182.1384.3945.202.03

　　000839G国安259.80294.36241.61285.19546.40495.771060.0755.214.02

　　数据来源：港澳资讯