72家公司近期业绩预测调升幅度最大

　　5月份机构研究报告业绩预测调整最大的股票

　　基本资料市场最新预测平均值2006年预测净利调整变动(%)2007年预测净利调整变动(%)

　　序号代码简称2006*EPS2006*PE2007*EPS2007*PE最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前 最新/1月前最新/1季前最新/半年前

　　1000562宏源证券0.1082.400.2237.24355.21%----469.28%----

　　2600748G实发展0.5012.510.4513.8478.99%78.99%78.99%32.23%32.23%32.23%

　　3600072G江南0.0857.390.1627.5378.06%78.06%--165.12%165.12%--

　　4600595G中孚0.4017.210.5312.9175.27%75.27%75.27%50.48%50.48%50.48%

　　5002048宁波华翔0.5135.160.6129.4746.11%89.89%89.89%51.78%104.80%104.80%

　　6000016G康佳A0.1528.520.1625.731.80%31.80%12.69%28.16%28.16%9.86%

　　7600528G中铁0.2130.570.2723.528.60%35.23%40.39%44.43%50.50%61.60%

　　8600888G众和0.7932.911.3219.5928.21%----61.08%----

　　9000050G深天马0.3725.700.4919.6728.02%28.02%28.02%55.71%55.71%55.71%

　　10600100G同方0.3528.500.519.6419.79%19.79%19.79%43.43%43.43%43.43%

　　11600472G包铝0.8210.440.949.1819.70%123.77%175.97%21.91%133.87%159.59%

　　12600489中金黄金0.5948.860.7240.0619.04%22.48%60.72%17.33%24.94%75.14%

　　13600069G银鸽0.3511.960.410.5218.15%18.15%18.15%25.14%25.14%25.14%

　　14000839G国安0.4832.160.7420.8517.17%18.46%18.85%35.68%53.94%43.75%

　　15600062G双鹤0.3320.930.417.2415.51%42.24%42.24%19.19%41.58%41.58%

　　16002049晶源电子0.4126.000.5419.615.45%20.37%20.37%25.48%32.07%32.07%

　　17000028G一致0.2426.660.3418.7415.20%-----0.19%----

　　18600459G贵研0.4133.830.9714.4514.25%----75.21%----

　　19002010传化股份0.6216.580.7214.1613.93%13.93%--14.38%14.38%--

　　20600195G中牧0.2030.590.2325.9713.76%13.76%38.40%22.87%22.87%50.17%

　　21600990四创电子0.4043.200.5730.1513.41%13.41%13.41%41.14%41.14%41.14%

　　22600498G烽火0.1653.560.2533.3210.76%-4.18%--5.03%-14.81%--

　　23000733振华科技0.0995.390.2435.5510.27%60.27%6.50%24.72%134.93%176.52%

　　24000825G太钢0.896.691.214.9110.10%53.12%43.94%16.62%95.60%90.47%

　　25000090G天健0.4514.620.758.779.68%9.68%--20.59%20.59%--

　　26600183G生益0.5518.180.6615.069.46%43.45%46.39%4.58%31.56%38.46%

　　27600460G士兰微0.2835.100.3428.929.37%-20.14%-20.14%10.32%-22.24%-22.24%

　　28600884G杉杉0.2429.640.2824.658.94%4.73%-24.68%17.63%23.35%-29.19%

　　29000858G

五粮液0.4231.390.5324.868.49%10.14%8.67%14.68%21.24%20.39%

　　30000001深发展A0.2436.920.3227.158.47%40.78%40.78%10.91%57.69%57.69%

　　31000157中联重科0.6920.170.7717.938.37%12.94%13.62%18.17%15.64%18.69%

　　32000970G三环0.4032.580.5224.767.84%11.69%11.69%9.93%21.30%21.30%

　　33002046轴研科技0.4438.030.5430.877.81%17.43%17.43%8.05%8.31%8.31%

　　34600058G五矿0.6015.570.6913.587.64%7.68%5.42%9.82%13.36%13.36%

　　35000559G钱潮0.1819.960.2614.467.20%-5.18%-5.18%33.84%15.27%15.27%

　　36600392G天成0.4823.210.5719.427.08%29.02%29.02%11.04%37.02%37.02%

　　37600262北方股份0.3333.880.5520.366.95%23.90%--19.12%42.89%--

　　38600674川投

能源0.1542.620.233.46.79%6.79%--5.99%5.99%--

　　39600399G抚钢0.0660.790.0844.636.59%6.59%6.59%27.99%27.99%27.99%

　　40000758中色股份0.4424.940.427.526.50%5.77%20.39%8.31%15.28%19.75%

　　41000608G阳光0.5212.120.788.16.21%8.25%--6.76%6.16%--

　　42600547G鲁黄金0.8440.541.0133.526.07%9.44%31.43%5.23%14.10%51.28%

　　43000910G大亚0.6117.430.8312.926.02%6.02%--6.82%6.82%--

　　44600360华微电子0.4929.470.6123.675.84%5.84%12.55%6.97%6.97%16.51%

　　45000917G电广0.1477.000.2248.595.77%119.61%62.57%5.57%218.86%143.49%

　　46000680G山推0.3315.010.3912.65.61%54.87%--5.83%52.94%--

　　47600104G上汽0.3814.140.4212.945.38%0.31%1.12%6.42%1.22%-0.82%

　　48000006G深振业0.7610.361.146.955.15%5.33%--8.83%5.09%--

　　49002024苏宁电器1.4635.521.9226.934.85%7.90%20.93%6.08%10.03%24.16%

　　50000401G冀东0.2417.610.2914.444.56%-2.32%--6.64%9.98%--

　　51600054G黄山0.3726.800.4223.724.36%11.01%11.01%5.47%16.20%16.20%

　　52600740G山焦0.5615.850.8310.644.36%4.36%12.60%46.14%46.14%67.83%

　　53600415小商品城2.2230.372.5626.324.08%10.72%9.80%9.92%20.55%19.66%

　　54600161G天坛0.2948.430.3539.784.03%9.48%19.15%6.23%15.57%21.20%

　　55600685G广船0.3422.240.5114.613.89%53.05%--10.34%61.71%--

　　56600660G福耀0.5216.580.6513.43.83%-11.20%-15.92%4.52%-8.18%-11.39%

　　57000612焦作万方0.5713.810.89.83.71%3.71%--6.92%6.92%--

　　58000968G煤气化0.5010.450.579.133.67%-17.75%8.17%-5.51%-12.75%40.60%

　　59002044江苏三友0.2619.730.317.313.65%-4.34%-4.34%2.76%-9.12%-9.12%

　　60000800G轿车0.2315.050.2514.063.44%14.26%27.76%8.02%19.73%61.01%

　　61600230G沧大0.5112.090.5710.783.29%-9.33%---0.05%8.41%--

　　62600269赣粤高速0.7616.400.8913.93.13%-0.63%-2.65%3.17%4.08%0.84%

　　63000039G中集1.1711.611.2610.713.04%-5.88%-12.62%5.08%-3.78%-7.34%

　　64600588G用友0.5737.100.6831.052.93%14.64%19.77%0.90%15.69%23.13%

　　65200002万 科B0.4815.720.6611.582.62%16.17%16.17%2.50%18.39%18.39%

　　66002003伟星股份0.5617.950.6515.352.50%0.50%-1.73%5.29%4.53%-4.06%

　　67600436G片仔癀0.7126.050.823.032.46%3.12%3.36%4.21%5.88%4.41%

　　68600642G申能0.5411.880.5411.912.36%3.55%4.34%-0.61%0.65%0.35%

　　69600031G三一0.6816.540.7714.52.28%3.78%2.60%4.91%7.81%7.45%

　　70002021中捷股份0.5118.750.6215.362.25%2.25%5.33%1.60%1.60%6.55%

　　71600688上海石化0.2821.950.4115.322.23%-45.31%-45.19%1.72%-19.01%-11.07%

　　72600686G金龙0.6314.570.7113.072.17%5.43%3.26%4.41%6.21%4.23%

　　数据来源：上海朝阳永续（Go-Goal业绩 预测系统）www.go-goal.com;www.china-yjy.com

　　□申银万国证券研究所 王艳

　　根据朝阳永续对5月份卖方机构研究报告业绩预测调整最大的

股票的统计，72家上市公司成为我们关注的目标。近年来，市场价值理念盛行，基于业绩预测前提下的估值水平是机构投资人衡量是否参与投资的主要评价标准。通过业绩调整的变动，可以判断个股市场走势已经发生的和未来可能发生的变化方向。我们认为，两类公司的情况值得关注。

　　一是近期股价大幅拉高、价值重估特征明显的个股，主要是因业绩提升和动态市盈率偏低而受到机构的增持。从表中可以看到宏源证券、宁波华翔、G江南、G实发展，这几家公司均是属于业绩预测水平较前期预测调高的比例较大的个股。这些公司在近期二级市场的运作中，明显得到增量资金的关照，股价快速拉升特征鲜明。另外可以一提的是，G包铝、G电广、振华科技等公司虽然在最近一个月的业绩预测变动并不突出，但是与一个季度之前的业绩预测相比，卖方机构大幅调高了2006年和2007年的业绩水平。由此可以确认，业绩预测的调整与股价变动之间的较为直接的联动关系。

　　二是近期业绩水平已被调高，但短期走势比较平和，低估现象依然存在的上市公司，这些企业的投资价值有待被市场进一步挖掘，未来补涨可期。由于机构认同度存在差异，包括判断的统一性和时间的先后性，于是市场整体影响力有所下降，导致短期市场表现平静。但是，如果确认机构观点具有前瞻性、业绩预测调整具有科学性，那么这类个股仍可能具有相当大的投资价值。

　　从机构预测调整中，我们选择三类个股。其一，2006年、2007年业绩预测水平稳定调高，近期走势放量，存在资金参与的个股。可以参考的主要品种有G康佳、G中铁。其二，2006年业绩预测与一个季度前的预测之间存在较大差距，股价本身已开始被市场修正，但估值仍未到位的个股。可以参考的品种有G双鹤、G太钢。其三，2007年业绩预测变动较大的个股，关注G电广、G山推、G山焦。