来源：格隆汇
认房不认贷后，卖比买多太多了。
认房不认贷，起到的作用是释放杠杆，让买家能买到比以前更好一点的房子，五成杠杆可以变七成。
政策出台执行已经过去半个月，尽管9月上半个月深圳经历了极端天气，先是9月1日苏拉台风全市停工，接着9月7日内涝，然后是连续几天的阴雨天，但从带看和成交数据来看，都有明显的增加，说明大家愿意出门看房了。
根据贝壳研究院数据显示，认房不认贷政策落地半个月，带看量上升22%、成交量上升62%，其中带看量环比前15天（8.15-8.29）增长74%。
来源：深圳贝壳研究院这个增幅还包含了顶级人才房的分流影响。
9月4日前海位置非常优越的深业云海湾人才房公告配售，718套房源，均价约5.52万/平，最终吸引到10896名人才审核通过。
说明，政策的预期刺激效果还算明显。
但从市场最新真实情况来看，市场的托举效果还没到位，流动性也乏力明显。
首先是新房，核心地段去化和市场还是有些差距。
除了星河星悦云邸位置相对远一些，其他三个项目都算是深圳核心的位置或者地段。但基本是大户型，抛开产品来看，说明改善群体的信心预期还没完全回归。
其次是成交也不足预期。
新政后，很多人预测，深圳二手房成交势头良好，有可能会超过4000套，现在看，基本不太可能完成了。
根据深圳房地产信息平台的数据显示，9月1—17日，深圳新房成交983套，二手房成交1334套。按照网签成交的节奏，这个月大概率也依旧是维持在2500套左右，相比前两个月的低位仅仅是好一点点。
第三点，卖比买更多。
从挂牌情况来看，新政后，新房单周挂盘更加明显，截至9月18日，相比上周新增1153套二手房房源。
注意，这只是公开在售的房源（也就是签了委托协议的房源），还有记录在中介渠道，但仅仅挂盘未公开的房源。
英雄从红字头平台咨询到的情况是，目前（截至9月18日）内部挂盘量已经超过10万套，达到10.26万套。而2022年11月2日的时候，平台内部挂盘量为7.64万套。
如果从全网在售二手房情况来看，深圳二手房的公开房源量也有8万多套。
根据诸葛找房平台数据，2023年9月18日最新有效挂盘量达到了84029套，今年4月3日深圳二手房有效挂盘量为52790套。
所以，还是不能盲目地乐观。
那么什么时候才能乐观一些呢？至少要看到三个方面，才会比较适合。
第一，深圳有更大效应的政策落地，比如政策回到2020年7月15日之前，比如放开限购、离婚不追溯三年，不看社保断缴情况等等。
这些政策如果叠加，无论如何都能把市场燃烧起来。
今天最大政策效应是关于房地产税的，受到大家关注的房地产税立法和个人所得税法修订并未出现在这次的《十四届全国人大常委会立法规划》中，说明房地产税立法暂缓，悬而未决的房产税立法5年内都难提请审议，有房一族可以稍稍松一口气。
第二，市场反弹在后续三个月能延续。
目前根据深圳市房地产中介协会跑得最快的市场数据来看，近两周（第37周、38周）二手房录得量都表现出加速回升。如果这个增速能持续一到两个月，说明市场信心有明显修复，便能够间接给真实的成交市场带来积极的恢复预期。
第三是经济能够向上突破。
房价上涨的前提是经济能够突破。只有经济向上突破了，大家的饭碗才能保住，工作的机会才能保住，买房才不会犹犹豫豫，房价才会迎来拐点。
我们8月的经济数据有几项变积极了的。
8月份，工业生产加快，装备制造业增速回升，全国规模以上工业增加值增长4.5%，比上月加快0.8个百分点；
市场销售加快恢复，服务消费增长较快，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%，比上月加快2.1个百分点；
就业形势总体稳定，城镇调查失业率5.2%，比上月下降。
但这只是8月份的情况，接下来9月和10月也比较关键，需要看能不能延续8月份的向好趋势。
否则都算不上是回暖，只能算短暂的反转。
编辑/tolk
Source: Gelonghui
After approving a house without taking out a loan, I sold too much more than I bought.
The effect of approving a house without taking out a loan is to release leverage so that buyers can buy a house that is a little better than before. 50% leverage can be changed to 70%.
Half a month has passed since the policy was introduced and implemented. Although Shenzhen experienced extreme weather in the first half of September, first, typhoon Sula stopped work throughout the city on September 1, then flooded on September 7, then several days of continuous rainy days.However, judging from the viewing and transaction data, there has been a clear increase, indicating that everyone is willing to go out and see the house.
According to data from the Seashell Research Institute, it has been half a month since the implementation of the housing and non-loan approval policy. The number of buyers and loans increased by 22% and the volume of transactions increased by 62%. Among them, the number of reviews increased by 74% over the previous 15 days (8.15-8.29).
Source: Shenzhen Shell Research InstituteThis increase also includes the diversion impact of top talent houses.
On September 4, the Shenye Cloud Bay Talent House, which has a very good location in Qianhai, announced the sale of 718 apartments, with an average price of about 55,200 per square meter. In the end, it attracted 10,896 talents to be reviewed and approved.
It shows that the expected stimulus effect of the policy is quite obvious.
However, judging from the latest actual situation in the market, the market's lifting effect is still not in place, and liquidity is clearly weak.
First, there is a new house. There is still some gap between the removal of the core location and the market.
With the exception of Xinghe Xingyue Yundi, which is relatively far away, the other three projects are all considered central locations or locations in Shenzhen. However, it is basically a large apartment. Leaving the products aside, it shows that the confidence expectations of the improved community have not fully returned.
Second, the deal fell short of expectations.
After the New Deal, many people predicted that second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen were going well, and that there might be more than 4,000 units. Looking at it now, it's basically unlikely to be completed.
According to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, from September 1 to 17, 983 new housing units and 1,334 second-hand housing units were sold in Shenzhen. Follow the pace of online signing transactions,This month, the probability is still around 2,500 sets, which is only slightly better than the low level of the previous two months.
Third, sell more than buy.
Judging from the listing situation, after the New Deal, it is even more obvious that new homes are listed on a weekly basis.As of September 18, 1,153 new second-hand housing units were added compared to last week.
Note that these are only listings that have been publicly sold (that is, listings that have signed an entrustment agreement), and there are also listings that have been recorded through intermediary channels, but are only listings that have not been disclosed.
What is the situation from Hero's consultation on the platform with red letters, currently (as of September 18)The number of internal shelves has exceeded 100,000, reaching 102,600 units.However, as of November 2, 2022, the number of internal listings on the platform was 76,400 units.
If you look at the situation of second-hand housing sold on the entire network, the number of publicly available second-hand housing units in Shenzhen is also over 80,000.
According to data from the Zhuge housing search platform, the latest effective listing volume reached 8,4029 units on September 18, 2023, and the number of effective second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen on April 3 this year was 5,2,790 units.
Therefore, we still cannot be blindly optimistic.
So when can we be more optimistic? It is only appropriate to look at at least three aspects.
First, the implementation of policies with greater impact in ShenzhenFor example, the policy went back to before July 15, 2020, such as liberalizing purchase restrictions, not going back three years for divorce, not looking at social security payment cuts, etc.
If these policies are superimposed, they can ignite the market no matter what.
Today's biggest policy effect is on real estate tax. The real estate tax legislation and personal income tax law revisions that have received everyone's attention did not appear in the “14th National People's Congress Standing Committee Legislative Plan” this time, indicating that real estate tax legislation has been suspended.Unresolved real estate tax legislation will be difficult to submit for review within 5 years, families with a room can breathe a little relieved.
Second, the market rebound will continue for the next three months.
Currently, according to the fastest running market data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association, the number of second-hand housing records in the past two weeks (37th and 38th weeks) has shown an accelerated recovery. If this growth rate continues for one to two months, which indicates that market confidence has clearly recovered, it can indirectly bring positive recovery expectations to the real trading market.
Third, the economy can break through upward.
A rise in housing prices presupposes that the economy can break through. Only when the economy breaks through upward will everyone's jobs be preserved, job opportunities can be preserved, there will be no hesitation in buying a house, and housing prices will reach an inflection point.
There are several positive changes in our economic data for August.
In August, industrial production accelerated, the growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry rebounded, and the value added of industries above the national scale increased by 4.5%, 0.8 percentage points faster than the previous month;
Market sales recovered at an accelerated pace, and service consumption grew rapidly. Total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 4.6% year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month;
The employment situation is generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate is 5.2%, down from the previous month.
However, this is only the situation in August. Next, September and October will also be more critical.It remains to be seen whether the positive trend of August can be continued.
Otherwise, none of it can be considered a recovery; it can only be considered a brief reversal.
editor/tolk
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