After approving a house without taking out a loan, I sold too much more than I bought.
The effect of approving a house without taking out a loan is to release leverage so that buyers can buy a house that is a little better than before. 50% leverage can be changed to 70%.
Half a month has passed since the policy was introduced and implemented. Although Shenzhen experienced extreme weather in the first half of September, first, typhoon Sula stopped work throughout the city on September 1, then flooded on September 7, then several days of continuous rainy days.However, judging from the viewing and transaction data, there has been a clear increase, indicating that everyone is willing to go out and see the house.
According to data from the Seashell Research Institute, it has been half a month since the implementation of the housing and non-loan approval policy. The number of buyers and loans increased by 22% and the volume of transactions increased by 62%. Among them, the number of reviews increased by 74% over the previous 15 days (8.15-8.29).
This increase also includes the diversion impact of top talent houses.
On September 4, the Shenye Cloud Bay Talent House, which has a very good location in Qianhai, announced the sale of 718 apartments, with an average price of about 55,200 per square meter. In the end, it attracted 10,896 talents to be reviewed and approved.
It shows that the expected stimulus effect of the policy is quite obvious.
However, judging from the latest actual situation in the market, the market's lifting effect is still not in place, and liquidity is clearly weak.
First, there is a new house. There is still some gap between the removal of the core location and the market.
With the exception of Xinghe Xingyue Yundi, which is relatively far away, the other three projects are all considered central locations or locations in Shenzhen. However, it is basically a large apartment. Leaving the products aside, it shows that the confidence expectations of the improved community have not fully returned.
Second, the deal fell short of expectations.
After the New Deal, many people predicted that second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen were going well, and that there might be more than 4,000 units. Looking at it now, it's basically unlikely to be completed.
According to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, from September 1 to 17, 983 new housing units and 1,334 second-hand housing units were sold in Shenzhen. Follow the pace of online signing transactions,This month, the probability is still around 2,500 sets, which is only slightly better than the low level of the previous two months.
Third, sell more than buy.
Judging from the listing situation, after the New Deal, it is even more obvious that new homes are listed on a weekly basis.As of September 18, 1,153 new second-hand housing units were added compared to last week.
Note that these are only listings that have been publicly sold (that is, listings that have signed an entrustment agreement), and there are also listings that have been recorded through intermediary channels, but are only listings that have not been disclosed.
What is the situation from Hero's consultation on the platform with red letters, currently (as of September 18)The number of internal shelves has exceeded 100,000, reaching 102,600 units.However, as of November 2, 2022, the number of internal listings on the platform was 76,400 units.
If you look at the situation of second-hand housing sold on the entire network, the number of publicly available second-hand housing units in Shenzhen is also over 80,000.
According to data from the Zhuge housing search platform, the latest effective listing volume reached 8,4029 units on September 18, 2023, and the number of effective second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen on April 3 this year was 5,2,790 units.
Therefore, we still cannot be blindly optimistic.
So when can we be more optimistic? It is only appropriate to look at at least three aspects.
First, the implementation of policies with greater impact in ShenzhenFor example, the policy went back to before July 15, 2020, such as liberalizing purchase restrictions, not going back three years for divorce, not looking at social security payment cuts, etc.
If these policies are superimposed, they can ignite the market no matter what.
Today's biggest policy effect is on real estate tax. The real estate tax legislation and personal income tax law revisions that have received everyone's attention did not appear in the “14th National People's Congress Standing Committee Legislative Plan” this time, indicating that real estate tax legislation has been suspended.Unresolved real estate tax legislation will be difficult to submit for review within 5 years, families with a room can breathe a little relieved.
Second, the market rebound will continue for the next three months.
Currently, according to the fastest running market data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association, the number of second-hand housing records in the past two weeks (37th and 38th weeks) has shown an accelerated recovery. If this growth rate continues for one to two months, which indicates that market confidence has clearly recovered, it can indirectly bring positive recovery expectations to the real trading market.
Third, the economy can break through upward.
A rise in housing prices presupposes that the economy can break through. Only when the economy breaks through upward will everyone's jobs be preserved, job opportunities can be preserved, there will be no hesitation in buying a house, and housing prices will reach an inflection point.
There are several positive changes in our economic data for August.
In August, industrial production accelerated, the growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry rebounded, and the value added of industries above the national scale increased by 4.5%, 0.8 percentage points faster than the previous month;
Market sales recovered at an accelerated pace, and service consumption grew rapidly. Total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 4.6% year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month;
The employment situation is generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate is 5.2%, down from the previous month.
However, this is only the situation in August. Next, September and October will also be more critical.It remains to be seen whether the positive trend of August can be continued.
Otherwise, none of it can be considered a recovery; it can only be considered a brief reversal.