2007年全球并购前景

　　It is hard not to feel that this is as good as it gets. Mergers and acquisitions in 2006 are set to total a record $3，870bn， 29 per more than last year and 16 per cent above the previous high in 2000， according to Dealogic.

　　The mix of fees has changed since the last cycle. This year， only 26 per cent of fees came directly from M&A， compared with 36 per cent in 2000. F ees from debt products accounted for nearly 50 per cent of the total， compared with 30 per cent in 2000.

　　This does not necessarily mean that investment banks are less reliant on M&A. Much highly profitable leveraged lending， which has pushed up debt capital markets revenues， is linked to debt-financed private equity acquisitions.

　　Certainly， a shift in the benign conditions in the debt markets， which help to finance acquisitions， or the equity markets， which are buoying up share prices and corporate confidence， could scupper the healthy flow of deals planned for the first half of next year. But without such disruptions， activity shows no sign of abating.

　　There are pressures on companies to do deals in almost every sector， from pharmaceuticals to oil. In both Europe and the US， investors are keen to see top-line growth of 5 per cent or more， and this is getting increasingly difficult to deliver organically in developed markets.

　　对于今年的全球并购活动，想不满意都难。Dealogic的数据显示，2006年，全球并购交易总额有望达到3.87万亿美元，较2005年增长29%，较2000年的前一个创纪录水平也高出16%。

　　投资银行的服务费收入构成从上个周期开始已经发生了改变。今年，只有26%的服务费收入直接来自并购业务，低于2000年的36%。而债务产品收入占服务费总收入的比例则升至近50%，大大高于2000年的30%。

　　然而，这并不意味着投资银行对并购业务的依赖程度有所下降。很多获利丰厚的杠杆借贷就与私人股本公司的债务融资收购相关，而这种杠杆借贷大大提高了投资银行的债券

资本市场收入。

　　健康的债券市场为收购提供了融资支持，而健康的

股票市场则提升了股价和企业信心。然而，一旦债市或股市当前的有利环境出现变化，计划在明年上半年进行的大量交易就有可能受到影响。当然，如果没有发生这种破坏性变化，并购活动将丝毫不会显示出放缓的迹象。

　　几乎所有行业中的公司都面临进行并购交易的压力，从医药行业到石油行业。欧洲和美国的投资者都渴望看到5%甚至更高的收入增幅，而在发达国家市场，这样的增幅越来越难以通过有机增长实现。

 董莉