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国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)昨天表示，美国财政赤字可能会对美国和全球的利率及经济增长造成严重影响。
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US
fiscal deficits could have a serious impact on US and global
interest rates and economic growth, the International Monetary
Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development said yesterday.
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国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》(World
Economic Outlook)将于下周全文发表，其中有一章写道，美国财政和经常账户的失衡状况必须得到重新调整，而有秩序地重新调整全球经济失衡状况，需要美国财政趋于稳定并努力促进海外需求增长。
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A
chapter from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, which will be
released in full next week, says that US fiscal and current
account imbalances must be rebalanced and that an orderly
rebalancing of global economic imbalances requires fiscal
stabilisation in the US as well as efforts to promote demand
growth abroad.
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布什(Bush)政府计划到2009年前相对2004年基准削减一半赤字，国际货币基金组织对此表示担忧，并指出“有关政府运作”，美国存在“一系列略嫌乐观的假设”。
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The
IMF expresses concern about the Bush administration's plans to cut
the deficit in half by 2009, relative to the 2004 baseline,
pointing to "a series of somewhat optimistic assumptions
about government operations".
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这些假设包括，2004年以后，美国在伊拉克的维和行动不会让美国纳税人蒙受损失，严格遏制除国防和国土安全以外的支出，税收收入将会跳升，以及不会改革替代性最低税(Alternative
Minimum Tax)。
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These
include no cost to US taxpayers from peacekeeping operations in
Iraq beyond 2004, a strict containment of spending other than on
defence and homeland security, and the assumption that tax
revenues will jump and that there will be no reform of the
Alternative Minimum Tax.
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国际货币基金组织指出，美国国会预算办公室的估算表明，在未来10年中，美国的赤字将基本上保持不变。
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The
IMF points to estimates by the US Congressional Budget Office that
suggest the US deficit will remain largely unchanged over the next
decade.
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在昨天发布的另一份报告中，国际货币基金组织和经合组织呼吁，要采取更紧迫的措施来减少美国财政赤字，以避免对利率的有害影响及对私人投资的排挤。
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The
IMF and the OECD, in a separate report released yesterday, call
for more stringent efforts to reduce the US fiscal deficit in
order to avoid deleterious effects on interest rates and crowding
out private investment.
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“需优先考虑的问题是，如何对抗当前及预见到的联邦预算赤字。”经合组织表示，并警告说，“如果不降低公共负储蓄，利率就有可能上升，最终经济潜在增长速度必将减缓”。
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"By
far the top priority is to confront the current and projected
federal budget deficits," the OECD said, warning that
"if public dissaving is not reduced, interest rates may be
higher, ultimately implying slower growth in economic
potential".
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2000年以来美国财政赤字相对于国内生产总值(GDP)的比例恶化了7%，这是自二战以来最大的恶化，约相当于世界储蓄总量的6%。
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The
7 per cent deterioration in the ratio of the US fiscal deficit
relative to GDP since 2000 is the largest deterioration since the
second world war and is equal to about 6 per cent of world gross
savings.
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国际货币基金组织表示，目前的低利率水平反映了美国企业对外部信贷的需求较低，但是，如果出现公司和政府争夺资金的情况，那就会推高美国和全球的利率，并且排挤投资。
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The
IMF said current low interest rates reflected low demand from US
businesses for external credit, but that a situation in which
companies compete with the government for funds would push up both
US and global interest rates and crowd out investment.
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“这种情况越快得到控制，对全世界越好，”国际货币基金组织首席经济学家拉古拉姆•瑞占(Raghuram
Rajan)表示，“美国在过去一年经济增长强劲，已使扩张性政策的正面贡献很明显，但目前我们认为，巩固这一贡献的必要性越来越大。”
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"The
sooner it is brought under control the better it will be for the
world," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist.
"Strong US growth over the past year has made the positive
contribution of expansionary policy clear but at this point we see
the increasing need for consolidation."
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中国已崛起为一个全球经济强国，而人们担心这将对其他国家产生负面影响。对于这个问题，国际货币基金组织在《世界经济展望》也有论述。据国际货币基金组织称，中国的崛起对全球经济的冲击会比较有限，而且对全球经济带来的好处也比许多观察家认为的要多。
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The
IMF's World Economic Outlook also addresses China's rise as a
global economic power and concern that this will have a negative
impact on other countries. The impact of China's rise on the
global economy will be more limited and also more beneficial than
many observers suggest, according to the IMF.
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该报告写道，中国成为世界第六大经济体（按市场价格计算）和第四大贸易国，是紧密效仿了日本和东南亚经济体设定的模式。
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China's
emergence as the world's sixth largest economy (at market prices)
and fourth largest trader has followed closely the pattern set by
Japan and south-east Asian economies, the report says.
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国际货币基金组织表示，全球市场的进一步整合将使中国受益，而富国也将得益于来自中国的廉价进口品。向中国提供资本产品的发展中国家，以及大宗商品生产国将受益于中国的需求。
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China
will benefit from greater integration in the world market, but
rich countries benefit from cheaper imports. Developing countries
that supply China with capital goods and commodity producing
countries benefit from Chinese demand, the IMF says.
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译者/李裕
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