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德国会不会变成新加坡？或许这个问题看似古怪，但一些经济学家却在专心思量，因为他们看到，欧元兑美元的升势似乎一发不可收。
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Could
Germany be turning into Singapore? The question may seem odd but
it is seriously preoccupying economists observing the seemingly
unstoppable ascent of the euro against the dollar.
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经济学家日益担心，随着欧元不断升值，作为欧洲最大经济体的德国，其竞争力和工业强国地位将被削弱，因此，欧元升值也许正在加速德国的去工业化（de-industrialisation）进程。
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Their
fears are growing that euro strength may be accelerating the de-industrialisation
of Germany as the relentless rise of the single currency erodes
the competitiveness of Europe's biggest economy and its industrial
powerhouse.
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这个过程已经持续了一段时间，但在欧元走强的背景下，这一过程的加速可能会有助于德国最大的制造商转变为进出口贸易商。
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The
process has been under way for some time. But its acceleration
under the strong euro could help turn Germany's biggest
manufacturers into import-and-export traders.
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欧元在过去一年内已升值逾20%，逼近1欧元兑1.30美元水平，因此，许多利润率低且依赖出口的德国制造商开始焦虑不安，其中包括汽车生产商、工具制造商和电子品集团。
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Scores
of Germany's low-margin, export-dependent manufacturers -
carmakers, tool manufacturers and electronics groups - are
beginning to sweat as the euro, already up by more than 20 per
cent over the past year, stampedes towards $1.30.
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德国经济的前景让德国政府为之警觉。为德国政府提供经济政策建议的五位“智囊”之一——伯特•吕鲁普(Bert
Ruerup)表示，哪怕欧元升值只是导致德国暂时丧失竞争力，那也可能进一步损伤德国的工业结构。他担心欧元持久升值可能加速侵蚀制造业的根基，令德国面临失业长期增长与实际收入停滞不前的状况。从就业角度来看，制造业仍是德国经济的中流砥柱。
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The
prospect is ringing alarm bells in Berlin. Bert Ruerup, one of the
five "wise men" who advise the government on economic
policy, says even a temporary loss of competitiveness because of
the euro could further damage Germany's industrial fabric. He
fears prolonged euro appreciation could hasten the erosion of the
manufacturing base, still the backbone of Germany's economy in
terms of jobs, leaving the country facing prolonged unemployment
growth and stagnating real incomes.
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吕鲁普先生表示，他担心欧元走强不仅会威胁德国产品在美国的市场份额，而且会抑制德国在欧元区及亚洲的销售情况，而低成本的竞争国正在亚洲侵占地盘。
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A
strong euro not only threatens Germany's market share in the US,
says Mr Ruerup. He fears it will also curb German sales in the
eurozone and in Asia where lower-cost competitors are making
inroads.
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他警告说，德国面临成为“集市经济体”的风险，即成为以贸易为基础、由薄弱的制造业支撑的经济体。这个经济体的出口保持强劲，但“本土含量的份额不断缩减”。
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He
warns that Germany risks becoming "a bazaar economy" - a
trade-based economy with a thin manufacturing backbone in which
exports remain strong but "the share of local content is
decreasing".
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经济学家表示，德国的劳动力成本比欧盟国家平均水平高20%，在很大程度上驱动了德国的去工业化过程，而这个过程已持续了一段时间。在过去十年中，一些公司已把生产迁到薪资更低且劳动法规更为宽松的国家。
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Economists
say de-industrialisation, driven largely by labour costs that are
20 per cent above the European Union average, has been under way
for some time. Over the past decade, companies have relocated
production to countries with lower wages and less rigid labour
laws.
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但汇丰银行(HSBC)的罗伯特•普莱尔(Robert
Prior)表示，若欧元走强，特别是若欧元在不当高位保持一段时间的话，上述趋势将恶化。德国工商总会(DIHK)最近的一项研究结果表明，约四分之一的德国企业打算在今后三年内将部分生产从德国转向它国。而三年前，这个比例是五分之一。
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But
the strong euro, especially if it stays at an uncomfortably high
level for some time, will worsen the trend, says Robert Prior of
HSBC. According to a recent study by the German federation of
chambers of commerce (DIHK), about one in four German companies
intends to shift some production away from Germany over the next
three years. Three years ago, it was one in five.
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也许更值得注意的是，这种迁移不再局限于工资密集型制造业务，而是扩展到行政管理、会计与研发领域。西门子(Siemens)本周早些时候表示，将把会计岗位转移到捷克首都布拉格，以节省成本。这种转移也不限于大公司，中等规模的公司也加入到大批撤离者的行列。中等规模公司的产出占德国产出的大部分。
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More
significantly perhaps, the shift is no longer restricted to
wage-intensive manufacturing operations but also administrative,
accounting and research and development. Earlier this week Siemens
said it would relocate accounting staff to the Czech capital
Prague to save costs. Nor is the shift confined to big companies.
Medium sized (Mittelstand) companies that account for the bulk of
output have joined the exodus.
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法国巴黎银行(BNP
Paribas)的让-洛瓦克•吉耶泽(Jean-Loic Guieze)表示，上世纪90年代，德国企业的外国直接投资步伐加快，其中多数投资进入美国和其它欧盟国家，但在工资成本低得多的中欧，德国也一直是最大的投资国。外国直接投资是产能转移的表现。
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Jean-Loic
Guieze of BNP Paribas says foreign direct investment by German
companies, a reflection of shifting production capacity,
accelerated in the 1990s. Most of it went to the US and the EU.
But Germany has also been the biggest investor in central Europe,
where wage costs are much lower.
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最近几周，欧元急升至创纪录的高位，进一步激励德国制造商将目光投向海外。
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In
recent weeks the euro's surge to a record high has given
manufacturers an extra incentive to look overseas.
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经济学家表示，一段时间以来，德国已明显出现工业衰落的迹象。1990年至今，制造业产值已从相当于出口总额的130%降至90%。从2000年至2002年，私人部门投资的降幅超过11%。在同一时期，制造业裁员约40万人，高于10年前经济衰退时登记的裁员人数，但当时的经济更低迷。
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Signs
of Germany's industrial decline have been evident for some time,
say economists. The output of the manufacturing sector has dropped
from 130 per cent of the value of total exports to 90 per cent
between 1990 and now. Private sector investment has fallen more
than 11 per cent between 2000 and 2002. Over the same period, the
number of jobs shed by the manufacturing sector - about 400,000 -
has exceeded the cuts registered in the recession 10 years ago,
although the economic downturn was deeper then.
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经济学家预计，随着德国企业努力削减成本并提高生产力，裁员人数将进一步增加。近期公布的数据显示，德国的就业人数正以10年来最快的步伐下降。
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Economists
expect even more jobs to go as German companies struggle to cut
costs and boost productivity. by Recent figures show employment
falling at its fastest pace for 10 years.
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不过，德国工业衰落的规模尚不及英国。英国制造业占国内生产总值的份额已从1970年的31%降至目前的17%左右。但吕鲁普先生表示，在医药化工等领域，德国已丧失其国际领先地位。医药化工业曾是莱茵资本主义皇冠上的宝石。
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Industrial
decline has not yet reached the scale seen in Britain where
manufacturing's share of gross domestic product fell from 31 per
cent in 1970 to about 17 now. But Mr R黵up says Germany has
already lost its international leadership in such areas as
pharmaceuticals and chemicals, once the crown jewels of Rhineland
capitalism.
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许多专家相信，工业岗位和产值的减少终将迫使德国提高生产效率。另有专家认为，随着就业岗位转移至服务业，工业岗位和产值的减少是经济进步的自然结果。
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Many
experts believe the loss of industrial jobs and output will
ultimately force Germany to become more efficient. Others see it
as a natural consequence of economic progress as employment shifts
to the service sector.
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但吕鲁普先生担心最糟糕的局面出现。“如果德国拥有工业的替代品，那么去工业化不会这么成问题，”他说，“然而，尽管我们拥有良好的中间科技，但我们并未参与高科技革命。”
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But
Mr Ruerup fears the worst. "De-industrialisation would not be
such a problem if Germany had a substitute," he says.
"But while we are good in middle technology, we are not
participating in the high-tech revolution."
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译者/张征
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