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先是西班牙，现在是法国。三月份有两场选举已改变了欧洲的政治格局。期待经济政策领域发生有史以来最大的转变吧。欧元区的财长往往都是政治上的轻量级人物，没什么领袖感。正是他们那种观望态度致使欧元区在过去三年内经济低速增长。那种态度还引发了稳定与增长公约的解体，该公约是一套制约欧元区经济政策协调的规则。
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First Spain, now France. Two March
elections have changed the political landscape in Europe. Expect the biggest
change of all in the field of economic policy. The eurozone's finance ministers
are political lightweights with no sense of leadership. It was their
wait-and-see attitude that contributed to low economic growth over the last
three years. It also triggered the collapse of the stability and growth pact,
the set of rules that govern economic policy co-ordination in the eurozone.
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法国和西班牙分别任命两位重量级人物担任财政部长，但这也许还不能令天平朝有利于产生良好政治领袖的方向倾斜。但这是一个开端。在法国，前内政部长尼古拉•萨尔科奇(Nicolas
Sarkozy)将执掌财政部并负责工业政策。他的前任弗朗西斯•梅尔(Francis
Mer)原是个商人，没有任何政治影响力。萨尔科奇先生则不同，他是有抱负的。有人暗示说，他将成为2007年总统大选的候选人。鉴于法国错综复杂的国家政治，他甚至可能不会在贝尔西(Bercy)的财政部久留。但是无论发生什么，他至少先要尽力把当前的工作做成功。
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The appointment of two heavy-hitters
as finance ministers in France and Spain may not yet tip the balance in favour
of sound political leadership. But it is a start. In France, Nicolas Sarkozy,
previously interior minister, will run the finance ministry and will also be
responsible for industrial policy. Unlike his predecessor, Francis Mer, a former
businessman with no political clout, Mr Sarkozy has ambitions. He is tipped as a
candidate for the 2007 presidential elections. Given the intricacies of French
national politics, he may not even stay at the Bercy, the French finance
ministry, for long. But whatever happens, he will at least have to try to make a
success of his current job first. |
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现任欧盟经济政策事务专员的佩德罗•索尔韦斯(Pedro
Solbes)将成为西班牙新任财政部长，他是倡导稳定公约改革的人士中呼声最高的一个。同样，索尔韦斯先生也不会是个简单的财政部长。西班牙新任首相何塞•路易斯•罗德里格斯•萨巴特罗(Jose
Luis Rodryguez Zapatero)已选择将宏观经济与微观经济政策并入一个强大的经济部门。 |
Spain's new finance minister will be
Pedro Solbes, currently European commissioner in charge of economic policy, and
one of the most vocal proponents of reform of the stability pact. Mr Solbes,
too, will not be a simple finance minister. The new Spanish prime minister, Jose
Luis Rodryguez Zapatero, has opted to merge macroeconomic and microeconomic
policy into a powerful economics department. |
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欧洲国家的财长在上世纪70年代一度很强势，当时诸如瓦莱里•吉斯卡尔•德斯坦(Valery Giscard
d'Estaing)和赫尔穆特•施密特(Helmut
Schmidt)这样的政治家担当财长之职。但继任者的影响力日趋衰微。如今，货币政策已落入一个独立的、有时无济于事的欧洲央行手中，而大部分政府支出已成为“非自由支配”支出，也就是说不受财长的直接控制。
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Europe's finance ministers used to
be powerful in the 1970s, when politicians such as Val閞y Giscard d'Estaing and
Helmut Schmidt occupied those posts. But their successors have gradually lost
influence. Monetary policy is now in the hands of an independent - and at times
unhelpful - European Central Bank, while large parts of government spending have
become "non-discretionary", meaning outside the finance ministers' direct
control. |
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在过去20年中，法国选民之所以常把时任政府撵下台，其主要原因就是那些政府无法解决经济问题。那些政府只会做一件事：制定不受拥戴的结构性改革方案，并在此过程中冒着选举失败的风险。
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Failure to solve economic problems
is the main reason why the French electorate has regularly ejected incumbent
governments over the past 20 years. All these governments can do is enact
unpopular structural reforms and risk electoral defeat in the process.
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这么说来，萨尔科奇先生能有什么不同的作为吗？纯粹从国家层面来看，不会有太多不同。人们普遍认定，用欧洲人的话说，萨尔科奇先生是位经济自由主义者：支持低税收和放松监管。但问题是，若要减税，他就只有三个选择，或降低支出，或提高支出效率，或准备接受更高的赤字。对于像他这样一位有政治雄心的人来说，第一个选择是自毁政治前程，第二个选择是一厢情愿，第三个选择则受到稳定公约的约束。如果萨尔科奇先生和索尔韦斯先生仍然一切照旧，那他们就会像前任一样失败。
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So what can Mr Sarkozy do
differently? On a purely national level, not much. He is widely judged to be an
economic liberal in the European sense of the word: in favour of lower taxes and
less regulation. The point is that to reduce taxes, he would have to incur lower
expenditure, or improve spending efficiency, or be prepared to accept a higher
deficit. The first is political suicide for a man with his political ambitions,
the second is wishful thinking, and the third option is constrained by the
stability pact. If Mr Sarkozy and Mr Solbes revert to business as usual, they
will fail just as their predecessors did. |
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正因如此，要实现他们的经济承诺，他们就必须在欧洲舞台上扮演更重要的角色。自1999年经济与货币联盟(Emu)诞生以来，各国政府始终没有工具，用来实践各自有关减少失业和加快经济增长的诺言。这些工具目前处在欧洲层面上，而且一直弃置未用。经济与货币联盟已创造了一个有待填补的政策真空。
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This is why, to fulfil their
economic promises, they will need to play a larger role on the European stage.
Since the start of economic and monetary union (Emu) in 1999, national
governments have not had the tools to realise their promises to reduce
unemployment and increase growth. These tools are now located at the European
level, where they have been lying unused. Emu has created a policy vacuum
waiting to be filled. |
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在欧洲层面上，各国财长可能有什么不同的作为吗？就协调财政政策而言，他们或许能采取一种建设性的方式，而不仅仅是指责彼此财政赤字过多。他们还可能要求欧洲央行参与一个正式的财政货币合作进程。他们甚至还可能认为，通货膨胀目标应当由他们自己，而不是由欧洲央行来确立。他们可能为欧元制定一项汇率政策。作为经济及产业部长，他们可能共同制定宏观及微观经济政策。目前，由于稳定公约的规定死板，因此欧洲国家无法实行短期内需要耗费资金的结构性改革，例如养老金改革。
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What could finance ministers do
differently at the European level? They could co-ordinate fiscal policy in a
constructive way that goes beyond simply accusing each other of running
excessive deficits. They could also ask the central bank to take part in a
formal process of fiscal and monetary co-operation. They may even take the view
that they, rather than the ECB, should set an inflation target. They could
formulate an exchange-rate policy for the euro. As ministers for economics and
industry, they could work together on macro- and microeconomic policy. At
present, the inflexible rules of the stability pact discourage structural reform
that costs money in the short run - such as pensions reform. |
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欧元区及其各成员国的经济政策能否取得成功，将取决于这些新一代强有力的财长们是否敢于展现从前缺乏的政治领导才能。
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The success of economic policy in
the eurozone and in each of its member states will depend on whether this next
generation of powerful finance ministers dares to show the political leadership
lacking in the past. |
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电子邮件: wolfgang.munchau@ft.com
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wolfgang.munchau@ft.com
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译者/李裕 |
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