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渣打银行(Standard
Chartered)昨天成为收购传言对象。在此之前，渣打银行最大的股东、新加坡商界大亨邱德拔(Tan
Sri Khoo Teck Puat)于上周末去世。
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Standard Chartered
yesterday emerged as the subject of takeover speculation following
the death at the weekend of Singaporean tycoon Tan Sri Khoo Teck
Puat, StanChart's largest shareholder.
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在伦敦股市，渣打银行股价攀升3.3%，至955.50便士，因为有分析师称，尽管渣打银行坚决保持独立性，但邱先生的去世可能引发他所持13.4%的股份的归属问题，这些股份价值15亿英镑(合28亿美元)。
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Its London share
price climbed 3.3 per cent to 955.50p as analysts suggested Mr
Khoo's death might trigger a sale of his 13.4 per cent stake -
worth ?.5bn ($2.8bn) - to any predator, despite the bank's
insistence on remaining independent.
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渣打银行的命运不会马上确定。邱氏家族昨天表示，现在谈这些还“为时过早”。银行在泛亚洲地区的消费者和企业银行特许经营业务具有很高价值。
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The fate of the bank
- whose pan-Asian consumer and corporate banking franchise is
highly prized - will not be decided immediately. The Khoo family
said yesterday it would be "premature" to comment.
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然而，高盛(Goldman
Sachs)的银行分析师罗伊•拉莫斯(Roy Ramos)表示：“我们相信，近期维持现状是有可能的，但由于邱德拔及其家族过去不是战略或积极股东，所以长期来看现状是不可能维持的。”
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However, Roy Ramos,
banks analyst at Goldman Sachs, said: "We believe the status
quo is likely in the near term but unlikely longer term,
particularly as Mr Khoo and his family were not strategic or
active shareholders."
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据悉，渣打银行的股份一直是邱先生最大的资产，但人们认为，在过去几年内，那些股份是由他的几个女儿管理，并通过一些家族信托公司和上市公司持有。
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The stake is
believed to have been Mr Khoo's biggest asset, but is thought to
have been run by a couple of his daughters for the past few years
and is held through a number of family trusts and public
companies.
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邱氏家族的朋友称，任何有关出售渣打股份的事宜，都将由邱先生14个子女中的4个来决定。
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Friends of the Khoo
family said that any decision about a possible sale of the stake
in StanChart would be taken mainly by four of Mr Khoo's 14
children.
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预计最终决定将由他女儿马维什•黄(Mavis
Oei)、杰奎琳(Jacqueline)和伊丽莎白(Elizabeth)及他儿子埃里克(Eric)一起做出。埃里克是新加坡最著名的电影导演之一。这四人是几家地产公司的董事会成员，而这几家公司控制着邱氏家族在渣打银行的股份。
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His daughters Mavis
Oei, Jacqueline and Elizabeth and son Eric, one of Singapore's
most prominent film directors, are expected to dictate the final
decision. The four serve as board directors on the several
property companies that control the Khoo family stake in StanChart.
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“这些子女介入很多家族生意，而且和他们的父亲非常亲近。他们都像父亲一样精明，”邱先生的朋友、前美国驻新加坡大使史蒂芬•格林(Steven
Green)说。
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"The children
are very involved in the family business and very close to their
father. They are very sharp people like their father," said
Steven Green, a former US ambassador to Singapore and a friend of
Mr Khoo.
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邱先生在1986年购买了渣打的股份，并视之为良好的长期投资，但不清楚他的子女是否也这么看。
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Mr Khoo, who bought
the stake in 1986, saw Standard Chartered as a good long-term
investment but whether the children share that view is unclear.
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“邱先生完全是这个家族的家长，当他一个人做的决定要由几个人来做时，情况会大不一样，”家族的一位朋友说。
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"Mr Khoo was
very much the family patriarch. When one person makes a decision
it can be quite different to when several persons have to make
it," a family friend said.
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如果该家族真决定出售这些股份，那么市值113亿英镑的渣打银行就显得很有吸引力。
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If the family were
to decide to sell their stake, StanChart, which has a market
capitalisation of ?1.3bn, is seen as highly attractive.
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在中东、非洲和亚洲地区50个快速发展的市场中（如印度和香港市场），渣打银行的发展足迹令人羡慕。管理层成功地将银行核心业务由批发转向高利润率的结构性衍生产品，同时提高了单位成本收益比。
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It has an enviable
footprint in 50 fast-growing Middle Eastern, African and Asian
markets like India and Hong Kong. And the management has proved
successful in changing the focus of its wholesale business towards
higher-margin structured and derivative products, while improving
the unit's cost-income ratio.
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银行的企业银行业务和消费银行业务的坏账水平均已降低。
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It has brought down
bad-debt levels at both the corporate and consumer banking
operations.
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然而，渣打银行的远期市赢率为16倍左右，因此对于巴克莱(Barclays)之类英国银行来说，不管怎样，收购渣打都有可能摊薄自己的每股收益。巴克利银行的远期市赢率为10倍。
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However, StanChart
trades on a forward p/e of about 16 times which would make any
acquisition potentially dilutive for a UK bank such as Barclays
which trades on a forward p/e of 10 times.
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花旗集团(Citigroup)和摩根大通(JP
Morgan Chase)被认为是潜在收购方。汇丰(HSBC)已拥有香港市场30%到40%的份额，如果竞购则将遭遇监管方面的难关。
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Citigroup and JP
Morgan Chase are viewed as potential buyers. HSBC, which already
has 30-40 per cent of the Hong Kong market, would run into
regulatory difficulties if it were to bid.
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新加坡政府投资公司淡马锡(Temasek)向来积极收购亚洲银行的股份，该公司可能会对渣打的股份有兴趣。分析师同时指出，中国的国有银行也有可能受到诱惑而前来竞购。
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Temasek, the
Singapore government investment company, which has been active in
buying stakes in Asian banks, could be interested. Analysts also
suggested state-owned banks in China might be tempted.
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然而，大多数分析师认为股份不会马上出售。Fox-Pitt,
Kelton的苏尼尔•加格(Sunil Garg)称：“渣打银行的管理层显然对自身前景抱有信心，因而目前不太可能支持这样的交易。”
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However, most
analysts do not believe a sale is imminent. Sunil Garg of
Fox-Pitt, Kelton said: "The management of StanChart is
clearly confident in its own prospects and is unlikely to support
a deal now."
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随着亚洲各关键市场的好转，渣打银行股价已从2001年夏566便士的低位反弹。
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StanChart has seen
shares rise from 566p in summer 2001 helped by the improvement in
key Asian markets.
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目前该银行所处的地位看来比2001年时稳固得多，当时首席执行官杜华(Rana
Talwar)突然离职，对银行造成相当大的不确定性。
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The bank is seen as
being in a much stronger position than in 2001 when the sudden
departure of chief executive Rana Talwar created considerable
uncertainity.
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自那以后，杜华的继任者戴维思(Mervyn
Davies)已经改善了渣打在关键市场的盈利状况。
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Since then Mervyn
Davies, his successor, has improved the bank's profitability in
key markets.
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上周该银行公布年报，2003年税前利润从2002年的12.6亿增至15.4亿美元。
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Last week the bank
reported annual pre-tax profits of $1.54bn up from $1.26bn in
2002.
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新加坡渣打银行称，邱先生所持股份何去何从“是邱氏家族的问题”。
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StanChart in
Singapore said the future of Mr Khoo's stake "is a question
for his family".
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译者/李裕
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