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当媒体、通信、IT和互联网公司的领袖们聚到一起，谈到新技术、新成就，大家总是兴致勃勃，但说到近期行业遭受的磨难，大家便默不做声，就像近期在达沃斯(Davos)出现的情况一样。业内各个领域都遭遇难关：网络公司泡沫、电信公司破产、音乐产业萧条、广告业低迷、电子出版业营收停滞、个人电脑业发展放缓、无线市场饱和、半导体业衰退、报业不景气、研发费用削减。而问题在于，为什么整个信息产业会如此一致地陷入困境？
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When the leaders of
media, telecommunications, IT and internet companies congregate,
as they did recently in Davos, the talk is upbeat about new
accomplishments but subdued about recent ordeals: the dotcom
bubble; the telecoms crash; the music industry bust; the
advertising downturn; the e-publishing revenue stagnation; the PC
slowdown; the wireless saturation; the semiconductor slump; the
newspaper recession; the R&D retrenchment. And the question
is, why do these predicaments sweep over the information sector so
regularly?
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上述低迷状况如此普遍，说明出现了一些根本性的问题，这些问题不仅限于某个行业、也不仅是短期内存在。相反，我们需要认识到，整个信息产业，从音乐、报纸、电信、互联网、半导体到业内任何领域，都已逐渐受到一个巨大的市场缺陷的影响。当市场价格不能达到自我持续的平衡时，市场就存在某种缺陷。整个信息业的市场缺陷是我们这个时代的根本趋势之一，这种缺陷具有长期、深远的影响，而且正在我们眼前发生。
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The prevalence of
these problems points to fundamental issues beyond a specific
industry or short-term period. Instead, we need to recognise that
the entire information sector - from music to newspapers to
telecoms to internet to semiconductors and anything in-between -
has become subject to a gigantic market failure in slow motion. A
market failure exists when market prices cannot reach a
self-sustaining equilibrium. The market failure of the entire
information sector is one of the fundamental trends of our time,
with far-reaching long-term effects, and it is happening right in
front of our eyes.
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这一问题基本的结构性原因在于，信息产品的特点就是固定成本高，而边际成本低。它们的生产成本高昂，但再生产和销售的成本低廉，因而展现出强大的规模经济效益，并容易诱发供应过量。另外，有越来越多的信息产品正源源不断地提供给用户，而信息产品和服务正变得愈加“商品化”、愈加开放，彼此竞争愈加激烈。
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The basic structural
reason for this problem is that information products are
characterised by high fixed costs and low marginal costs. They are
expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce and distribute, and
therefore exhibit strong economies of scale with incentives to an
over-supply. Second, more information products are continuously
being offered to users. And information products and services are
becoming more "commodified", open, and competitive.
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这些因素所产生的主要后果，就是内容、网络分布和设备的价格全线崩溃。现在似乎难以对信息产品和服务收取任何费用。音乐产业无法维持价格；除了《金融时报》等几家优质内容供应商，其它在线出版商都无法对读者进行收费；国际长途电话价格下跌，而随着互联网电话的出现，国际长途价格将几近于零；网上广告的价格已大幅下跌；大部分国内新闻和国际新闻都免费供应；很多软件无偿分发或可免费索取；学术论文在网上免费提供；除非要交税，电视和广播向来可以白听白看；即使是有线电视，每周播放2万个小时的节目，也仅以每小时0.1美分的收费提供给收看者；报纸的价格仅能偿付纸张和发行成本，内容则是免费奉送。
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The main result of
these factors is that prices for content, network distribution and
equipment are collapsing across a broad front. It seems to have
become difficult to charge anything for information products and
services. The music industry is unable to maintain prices. Online
publishers cannot charge their readers, except for a few premium
providers such as the FT. International phone call prices have
dropped, and with internet telephony will move to near-zero. Web
advertising prices have collapsed. Much of world and national news
is provided for free. A lot of software is distributed or acquired
gratis. Academic articles are being distributed online for free.
TV and radio have always been free unless taxed. Even cable TV, at
20,000 programme hours a week, is available to viewers at a cost
of a 1/10 of 1 cent per hour. Newspaper prices barely cover the
physical cost of paper and delivery; the content is thrown in for
free.
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上述种种都是价格长期下跌的征兆，尚无迹象显示这种下跌趋势会有所缓和。这对消费者来说是件大好事，包括那些发展中国家的消费者，但却为供应商带来灾难。供应商的信息售价或传播价格正在下跌，趋于边际成本，而边际成本则接近零，而且一般都不能负担全部成本。没有哪家公司能够长期这么做。信息市场因科技发展变得越高效，上述进程的发展速度也越快。
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All these are
symptoms of a chronic price deflation that shows no sign of
abating. It is a good deal for consumers, including those of
developing countries, but it spells disaster for providers. The
price for their information or distribution is dropping towards
marginal cost, which is close to zero and typically does not cover
full cost. No company can afford to do this for long. And the more
efficient the information market becomes due to technology, the
faster this process advances.
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而且接下去还有更多麻烦。
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And there is more
trouble ahead.
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首先，和从前相比，信息业内各种次级产业相互影响的程度更大、速度更快。举例来说，“旗帜广告”(banner
ads)的过度采用导致很多网站的业务模式失败，转而又损害了科技杂志、电信网络、互联网骨干企业、设备制造商和研发业务。
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First, the various
sub-industries of the information sector affect each other more,
and faster, than ever before. For example, the excess availability
of banner ads leads to the collapse of the business model for many
websites, which in turn harms tech magazines, telecoms networks,
internet backbones, equipment makers and R&D.
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其次，信息产业将不断经历盛衰周期，我们仅仅经历了其中第一个。面对价格滑坡，信息业公司所做的反应将是削减成本、外包、规避风险、多样化经营，以及采用“微支付”等新方法。它们将努力革新，好让自己的产品变得独特。但是，个人和机构持续吸收快速变革的能力有限，因此，他们采取的主要策略将是整合或组成企业联盟，以便维持定价能力。结果，价格和利润将会上升(媒体行业的集中程度也会提高)，这将再次导致市场扩张和新企业的介入，而根据同样的经济学逻辑，将出现新的价格大幅下跌，呈现普遍的价格下降趋势。随后，在股价下跌引发的信用循环中，价格波动加剧。再者，信息产业价格下跌的震荡局面，还将通过乘数效应拖累其它经济领域。
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Second, the
information industries will go through boom-bust cycles, of which
we have merely experienced the first. The reaction of information
sector companies to the price declines is to cut costs, outsource,
hedge, diversify and use new processes such as micropayments. They
will try to innovate to differentiate their products. But there is
a limit to the ability of individuals and organisations to absorb
rapid change over a sustained period. Therefore, the main strategy
will be to consolidate and cartelise in order to maintain pricing
power. As a result, prices and profits rise (as well as media
concentration), which will lead again to expansion, entry, and by
the same economic logic, to a new price collapse, with a general
downward trend in prices. Those fluctuations are then exacerbated
through credit cycles triggered by the drop in equity prices.
Third, the price deflation oscillating through the information
sector will drag down the rest of the economy, too, through a
multiplier effect.
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因此结论就是，随着各国越来越倚重以信息为基础的活动，它们的经济状况就会变得越来越不稳定。
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The conclusion is,
therefore, that as countries rely more on information-based
activities, their economies become more volatile.
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若果真如此，那对于政策的制定又意味着什么呢？源代码开放软件、信息共享或公共热区之类的自愿者活动解决不了问题，因为这些活动也受到被称为“公用领域的悲剧”（tragedy
of the commons）的不稳定性的影响。在“公用领域的悲剧”中，个人吃白食、过度使用行为破坏了公共群体的努力。因此，政府将不可避免地被卷入稳定大局的事务中。但这说来容易做来难。凯恩斯的需求刺激理论等经典方法，以及货币政策或产业战略，都无法解决信息领域的核心问题。问题不是需求或投资不足，而是供应过度、竞争以及结构性价格紧缩。
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If that is the case,
what are the policy implications? Volunteerist activities such as
open-source software, shared information or public hotspots will
not solve the problem, because they, too, are subject to the
instability known as the "tragedy of the commons", in
which individuals' free-loading and over-utilisation destroys the
communal effort. Therefore, governments will inevitably be drawn
into the business of stabilisation. But this is easier said than
done. Classic approaches such as Keynesian demand stimulation, or
monetary policy or industrial strategy do not address the core
problem of the information sector. That problem is not inadequate
demand or investment, but over-supply, competition and structural
price deflation.
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也许政府所能做的最有效的事，并不是干预信息领域，而是帮助经济实现多样化，使之成为更平稳的组合。这就意味着要鼓励制造业的发展，制造业通常是低科技产业，与信息产业的联系不太紧密。这样的政策将与各国以往的政策大相径庭，因为以往每个国家都想发展成为信息社会。然而发展信息产业战略虽然取得成功，却使整个国民经济面临更大的动荡和崩溃的危险。以芬兰为例，诺基亚的出口占该国出口总额的35%，产值占国内生产总值的15%，此外公司还施加了一些次级影响。因此想象一下，如果这家无线通讯公司变得疲弱，那么整个国家就会面临风险，而不仅仅是这一家公司。
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Perhaps the most
effective thing that government can do instead of interfering in
the information sector is to help diversify the economy to a more
balanced portfolio. This means encouraging manufacturing
industries that are not closely correlated with the health of the
information sector, often low-tech industries. Such a policy would
represent quite a reversal from the past, when every country
wanted to develop into an information society. But the success of
such a strategy exposes the entire national economy to a greater
volatility and disruption. Take Finland. Nokia accounts for 35 per
cent of all exports and 15 per cent of GDP, including its
secondary impacts. So imagine if the wireless business turns weak.
A whole country is at risk, not just a single company.
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所以说，信息经济有可能是个波动性、周期性和不稳定的杂乱体系。人们以为这是一个创新型经济体内会出现的“创造性破坏”，但问题并非如此，而是一个经济体中的结构性不稳定。在该经济体中，主要产品的边际成本都很低，因此价格也很低，但产品的制造成本不菲。有人认为，以信息为基础的经济自然会保持繁荣，现在必须修正这种观念，应认识到情况不太乐观。
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Thus, the
information economy is likely to be a volatile, cyclical, unstable
mess. The problem is not the "creative destruction" one
would expect in an innovative economy, but the structural
instability of an economy whose major products have very low
marginal costs and hence prices, but are not low-cost to produce.
The notion that an information-based economy will be inherently
prosperous must be revised for a less optimistic scenario.
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但是，这个结论也许至少能让我们未雨绸缪，提前考虑在个人领域和公共领域该采取的策略。这比继续前几年天花乱坠的宣传要好，正是这些宣传令信息企业陷入目前的危机，而这不会是它们面临的最后一个危机。
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But this conclusion
might at least enable us to think ahead and contemplate private
and public strategies. That would be better than following the
hype of previous years, which has led the information industries
to their present crisis. It will not be their last.
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作者是哥伦比亚大学经济学与金融学教授，兼该校电信信息学院院长。
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The writer is
professor of economics and finance at Columbia University and
director of its Columbia Institute for Tele-Information
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译者/李功文
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