ÐÂÄêǰϦ£¬µÂ¹ú×ÜÀí¸ñ¹þÌØ•Ê©ÂÞµÂ(Gerhard
Schroeder)ÏòÈ«¹ú·¢±í½²»°£¬Ëû²»Í¬Ñ°³£µØ½¨Òé:
µÂ¹úͬ°ûÓ¦¸ÃÒÔ»ý¼«¹ºÎïÓ½Ó2004Äê¡£Ëû˵:¡°¹ú¼ÒµÄ¾¼ÃÃüÔ˴󲿷ÖÕÆÎÕÔÚÄãÃÇÊÖÖС£¡±Æäʵ£¬ËûÒ²ÐíÊÇÔÚ°×·Ñ¿ÚÉà¡£
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When
Gerhard Schroeder addressed the nation on New Year's eve, he had
some unusual advice. His fellow citizens, he said, should start
2004 with some serious shopping: "The fate of the economy
largely lies in your hands." He might as well have been
talking to a wall.
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½ÝæÚ¿(GfK)Êг¡Ñо¿»ú¹¹ÉÏÖܹ«²¼µÄµ÷²é½á¹ûÏÔʾ£¬µÂ¹úÏû·ÑÕßÐÅÐÄÖ¸ÊýÔÚÈ¥ÄêÏ°ëÄêÇá΢·´µ¯ºó£¬ÓÖ³öÏÖ»ØÂä¡£Ëæºó£¬Õþ¸®ÓÚÉÏÖÜÎ幫²¼ÁËÆ£ÈíµÄ12Ô·ÝÁãÊÛ¶îÊý¾Ý¡£
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A
survey published last week by the GfK market research institute
showed consumer sentiment in Germany had fallen again after a
slight rebound in the second half of last year. This was followed
by the publication of dismal December retail sales figures last
Friday.
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The
problem is not new. After stagnating for two years, private
consumption fell in 2002. In fact, households never really
recovered from the reunification- induced boom of the early 1990s,
with spending lagging behind the US for much of the decade.
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Germans,
on the other hand, have been putting an ever-larger share of their
income aside, with savings rates reaching 10.5 per cent in 2002,
almost three times the US level that year.
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һЩż¶ûÀ´µÂ¹úµÄÈË»áÈÏΪ£¬ÁßØÄÊǵ¹úÈ˵ĵäÐÍÌØÕ÷£¬ÕâÖÖÏë·¨Ò²Ðí¿ÉÒÔÁ½⡣¼¸ºõÔÚËùÓÐÉú»îÁìÓò£¬½Ú¼ó¶¼±»ÊÓΪһÖÖÃÀµÂ£¬Ö»ÓÐÆû³µÏû·Ñ³ýÍ⣬ÒòΪÆû³µµÄ¼Û¸ñºÍÐÔÄÜÏÔʾһ¸öÈ˵ÄÉç»áµØλ¡£
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Occasional
visitors could be forgiven for thinking parsimony is a typically
German trait. With the exception of cars - whose price and
performance define one's social standing - in almost all areas of
life penny-pinching is considered a virtue.
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ÖÜÁùÔ糿£¬Äã˳·µ½µÂ¹ú³É¹¦µÄʳƷÕÛ¿ÛµêAldi»òLidlÈ¥¿´¿´£¬ÄÇÀïµÄÍ£³µ³¡ÉϿ϶¨Í£×ż¸Á¾±£Ê±½Ý(Porsche)»ò±¼³Û(Mercedes)¡£È¥Ä꣬SaturnÍƳöµÄÊг¡ÓªÏú¹ã¸æ¡°½ÚÔ¼¾ÍÊǿᡱÔڵ¹ú´ó»ñ³É¹¦¡£SaturnÊǵ¹ú×î´óµÄÁãÊÛ¼¯ÍÅÂóµÂÁú(Metro)Æìϵĵç×ÓÏû·ÑÆ·×Ó¹«Ë¾¡£
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Drop
by Aldi or Lidl, the successful food discounters, on a Saturday
morning and there are bound to be a few Porsches and Mercedes in
the car park. Last year's greatest marketing success was the
"thrift is cool" campaign run by Saturn, the consumer
electronics arm of Metro, Germany's largest retail group.
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¡°¾ÍÁ¬ÄÇЩ¸ù±¾²»±Ø´æÇ®µÄÈËÒ²Ñø³ÉÒ»ÖÖÂò±ãÒË»õµÄÐÄ̬£¬¡±Âüº£Ä·Êг¡ÐÄÀíÑо¿ÔºÖ÷¹Ü¸ÇÌØ•¹ÅÌØÑŶû(Gert
Gutjahr)˵£¬¡°ÎÒ°ÑÕâÖÖÏÖÏó³ÆΪ¡®ÉùÔ®ÐÍ¡¯¹ºÎï¡£ÕâÊÇËûÃÇÂú×ãÆäÉç»áÁ¼ÖªµÄÒ»ÖÖ·½Ê½¡£¡±
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"Even
those who really do not need to be saving any money are developing
a bargain-hunting mentality," says Gert Gutjahr, head of the
Institute for Market Psychology in Mannheim. "I call it
solidarity-shopping. It is a way to appease their social
conscience."
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µ«¶Ô¾¼Ãѧ¼ÒÀ´Ëµ£¬½Ú¼óÓëÃñ×åÐÔÎ޹أ¬¶øÊÇÒ»ÖÖÀíÐԵıíÏÖ¡£µÂ¹úÓëÅ·ÖÞÆäËü¹ú¼Ò²»Í¬£¬ÓÉÓÚнˮµÄÉÏÕDZ»Ë°ÊÕºÍÉç»á±£ÕÏÖ§³öµÄÉÏÉýËùµÖÏû£¬¿ÉÖ§ÅäÊÕÈëÔÚ¹ýÈ¥10ÄêʼÖÕÍ£ÖͲ»Ç°¡£ÔÚÅ·ÃË15¹úÖУ¬Èç½ñµÂ¹úµÄÈ˾ùÊÕÈëÅÅÔÚµÚ11λ¡£
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For
economists, however, frugality is not about national character but
rationality. Unlike the rest of Europe, disposable income in
Germany has stagnated in the past 10 years as wage increases were
offset by rises in tax and social security contributions. Today
Germany ranks 11 out of the 15 European Union states in terms of
income per capita.
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´ÓÉÏÊÀ¼Í90Äê´úÖÐÆÚÆ𣬵¹úµÄʧҵÂʾÍÒÔÁîÈ˵£ÐĵÄËÙ¶ÈÉÏÉý¡£Óë´Ëͬʱ£¬µÂ¹úµÄ¼ÒÍ¥¸ºÕ®¶îÒ²ÔÚÔö³¤£¬2000Äê´ïµ½¶¥·å£¬Õ¼¿ÉÖ§ÅäÊÕÈëµÄ112%£¬ÓëÃÀ¹úµ±Ê±µÄ×´¿öÀàËÆ¡£»¨Æ켯ÍŵĺÎÈû•Â·Ò×˹•°¢¶ûË÷À(Jose
Luis Alzola)±íʾ£¬¾¡¹ÜÄ¿Ç°µÂ¹úµÄÀûÂÊˮƽ´¦ÓÚÀúÊ·µÍµã£¬µ«ÈËÃÇÔÙÒ²²»Ïñ80Äê´úÄÇÑù¡°½èÇ®»¨¡±ÁË¡£
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Together
with unemployment, which began rising alarmingly in the mid-1990s,
household indebtedness also grew, peaking at 112 per cent of
disposable income in 2000, similar to that in the US. Even though
interest rates are at a historical low, people no longer
"borrow to spend" as in the eighties, says Jose Luis
Alzola of Citigroup.
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Ħ¸ùÊ¿µ¤Àû(Morgan
Stanley)µÄ°¬¶û¼Ó•°ÍÆæ(Elga Bartsch)ÔòÈÏΪ£º¡°ÔÚÉÏÊÀ¼Í90Äê´ú£¬³ýÓ¢¹úÒÔÍ⣬ÆäËû¹ú¼ÒµÄ´¢ÐîÂʶ¼Ã»ÏñµÂ¹úϽµµÄÄÇô¿ì¡£µÂ¹ú»¹Óв»ÉÙÊÂÒª×ö¡£¡±
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For
Elga Bartsch, economist at Morgan Stanley: "There is no other
country apart from the UKswheressavings rates fell so sharply in
the nineties. There was some catching up to do."
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µÂ¹úҲûÓоÀú¹ýÓ¢¹úºÍÃÀ¹úÄÇÑùµÄ·¿µØ²úÈȳ±£¬¶øÕýÊÇ·¿µØ²úÈȳ±±£»¤ÁËÓ¢¹úºÍÃÀ¹úÏû·ÑÕߣ¬Ê¹ËûÃÇÃâÓÚ³ÐÊܹÉÊбÀÀ£µÄÑÏÖغó¹û¡£²»¹ý£¬¼´±ãµÂ¹úÔø¾³öÏÖ·¿µØ²úÈȳ±£¬»òÐíÒ²²»»á¶Ô¸Ã¹úÏû·ÑÓÐÈκÎÖúÒæ¡£Ïà¶ÔÓ¢¹úºÍÃÀ¹úÀ´Ëµ£¬µÂ¹úÓµÓз¿²úµÄÈ˽ÏÉÙ£¬¶øÇÒÓÉÓÚ´æÔÚ·¨ÂÉÏÞÖÆÇÒÊÖÐø·Ñ½Ï¸ß£¬Òò´Ë£¬µÂ¹úÈËÒªÏëͨ¹ýÔÙ°´½ÒÀ´¶ÒÏÖ·¿Îݼ۸ñÉÏÕÇ´øÀ´µÄÊÕÒ棬Õ⼸ºõÊDz»¿ÉÄܵġ£
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Nor
did the country experience a property boom of the kind that
shielded UK and US consumers from the worst effects of the stock
exchange crash. Even if it had, it is doubtful it would have
helped. Comparatively few Germans own property and legal barriers
and high fees make re-mortgaging - and cashing in on rising home
values - almost impossible.
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¡°ÈËÃǶÔδÀ´¸Ðµ½¿Ö¾å¡¡ËûÃÇÔ¤¼Æ×Ô¼ºµÄÊÕÈë²»»áÔÙÒÔÏñÑùµÄËٶȳÖÐøÔö³¤£¬¡±°Í¿ËÀ³(Barclays
Capital)פ·¨À¼¿Ë¸£µÄÍжû˹ëø•²¨À³ÌØ(Thorsten
Polleit)˵¡£
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"People
are fearful about the future . . . they no longer expect their
incomes to continue growing at a decent pace," Thorsten
Polleit of Barclays Capital in Frankfurt, sums up.
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×î½ü£¬Ïû·ÑÕßÐÅÐĵÍÃÔÓëÒÔÇ°Ïàͬ¡£×¨¼Ò±íʾ£¬Í¬ÒÔÍùÒ»Ñù£¬ÈËÃǶÔÊ©Â޵µĽṹÐԸĸ﷽°¸¸Ðµ½µ£ÓÇ£¬ÕâÍêÈ«ºÏÀí¡£ºÜ¶àµÂ¹úÈËÈÏΪ£¬È¥ÄêÔÚ±£½¡¡¢Ê§ÒµºÍÑøÀϽðÎÊÌâÉϵÄÈ«Ãæ¸ïУ¬ÒÑʹÈËÃÇÔö¼ÓÁËËùÐè½ÉÄɵķÑÓ㬵«ÔÚ¶ÌÆÚÄÚ¼õÉÙÁËËùÄÜ»ñµÃµÄÒæ´¦¡£
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The
latest bout of consumer gloom is no different. As before, the
concern surrounding Mr Schroeder's structural reforms is wholly
rational, experts say. For many Germans, last year's healthcare,
unemployment and pension overhaul have increased contributions and
lowered benefits in the short term.
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¡°ÎÒÃǽñÌì¿´µ½µÄÏû·ÑÕßÐÅÐļõÈõµÄ¾ÖÃ棬Ôںܴó³Ì¶ÈÉÏÊÇÓÉÒ½ÁƱ£ÏոĸïµÄ²»È·¶¨ÐÔÔì³É£¬¡±½ÝæÚ¿µÄÂÞ¶û·ò•±È¶û¿Ë(Rolf
Buerkl)˵£¬¡°Õⳡ¸Ä¸ïµÄºÃ´¦ÉÐδÏÔÏÖ£¬Òò´Ë£¬ÈËÃÇ°Ñ×¢ÒâÁ¦¼¯ÖÐÔڸĸïµÄ¸ºÃæÓ°ÏìÉÏ¡£¡±
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"The
deterioration in sentiment we see today can be pretty much
explained by the uncertainties surrounding the health insurance
reform," says Rolf Buerkl of GfK. "The benefits of the
reform are not visible yet so attention focuses on the negative
aspects."
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µÂ¹úÕý¶ÔÆ俶¿®µÄÉç»á¸£ÀûÖƶȽøÐе÷Õû£¬Õâ×îÖÕ»á¶ÔµÂ¹ú¾¼ÃÐγÉÖ±½Ó³å»÷£¬ÒòΪÔڸùúÈ˾ù¿ÉÖ§ÅäÊÕÈëÖУ¬ÓнüÈý·ÖÖ®Ò»À´×ÔÕþ¸®²¦¿î£¬¸Ã±ÈÀý»áËæÊÕÈëµÄϽµ¶øÉÏÉý¡£
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Adjustments
to Germany's generous welfare state are turning out to have a
direct impact on the economy since nearly a third of average
disposable income in the country comes from government transfers,
a proportion that rises as incomes decrease.
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µÂ¹úÕþ¸®Ô±¾Ô¤¼Æ2004Ä꽫¼õË°220ÒÚÅ·Ôª£¨ºÏ277ÒÚÃÀÔª£©£¬ºóÀ´²»µÃ²»½«¸ÃÊý×ÖÏ÷¼õÈý·ÖÖ®Ò»£¬Õâ¶ÔÌá¸ßÏû·ÑÕßÐÅÐÄ×ÔÈ»ÎÞÒæ¡£¼õË°´ëÊ©±¾À´Ö¼ÔÚ»º½â¸Ä¸ïµ¼ÖµÄÍ´¿à£¬×îÖÕÈ´²úÉúÏà·´µÄЧ¹û¡£
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It
does not help that the €22bn (.7bn) tax cut originally
envisaged by the government for 2004 had to be reduced by a third.
A measure intended to help appease the pain caused by the reforms
ended upshavingsthe opposite effect.
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Å·ÖÞ¾¼ÃÑо¿ÖÐÐÄ(ZEW)µÄ¸¥ÀïµÂÀïÏ£•º£ÄùÂü(Friedrich
Heinemann)±íʾ£¬¶ÔÓÚÆÕͨ¹¤Ð½ÊÕÈëÕßÀ´Ëµ£¬ÒÀÕÕÔÀ´µÄ¼õË°¼Æ»®£¬ËûÃÇÿÔµÈÓÚ¿ÉÔö¼ÓÔ¼20Å·ÔªµÄÊÕÈë¡£Ëû˵£¬¼õË°¶îϽµµÄÏûÏ¢ÁîÈËʧÍû£¬²¢µ¼ÖÂ1Ô·ݵÄÊÕÈëÔ¤ÆÚÖ¸±êÁ¬ÐøµÚÎå¸öÔÂϽµ¡£
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For
average earners, says Friedrich Heinemann of the ZEW economic
research institute, the tax cut will be worth around €20 a
month. The disappointing cut helped drive income expectations down
in January for the fifth month running, he claims.
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½ÝæÚ¿µÄµ÷²é½á¹ûÏÔʾ£¬µÂ¹ú¼ÒÍ¥Ö®ËùÒÔ²»Ïû·Ñ£¬Ö÷ÒªÊÇÒòΪËûÃǶԾ¼Ã¸´ËÕµÄÐÅÐļõÈõ¡£
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The
GfK poll shows a principal reason households are not spending is
their waning faith in a recovery.
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µ«ÓÐÒ»µã»¹Êǵõ½´ó¼ÒµÄÒ»ÖÂÈÏ¿É£¬¼´ÄÇЩ¸Ä¸ï´ëÊ©½«ÓÐÖúÓÚÈ·±£µÂ¹úµÄ³¤ÆÚ·±ÈÙ¡£
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Nevertheless
there remains a consensus that the reforms will help ensure
Germany's longer-term prosperity.
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µÂÀÛ˹µÇ¼Ñ»ª(Dresdner
Kleinwort Wasserstein)µÄµ¤Äá°£À•°£Ææ±´¸ñ(Daniela
Etschbeger)±íʾͬÒ⣺¡°Ã¿¸öÈ˶¼ÖªµÀ±ØÐë¸Ä¸ï¡£¼ÌÐøÍƳٸĸï·Ç³£Î£ÏÕ¡£Õþ¸®Ö»ÄÜÓ²×ÅͷƤ×÷³öһЩ·Ç³£²»ÊÜ»¶ÓµÄ¾ö¶¨¡£¡±
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Daniela
Etschbeger of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein agrees:
"Everybody knows reforms are necessary. It is dangerous to
keep on postponing them. Governments just have to bite the bullet
and take some very unpopular decisions."
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