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里根(Ronald
Reagan)总统确实证明了赤字无关紧要吗？看来，副总统迪克•切尼(Dick
Cheney)是这样想的。或者，至少前财长保罗•奥尼尔(Paul
O’Neill)是这样宣称的。然而，在有关赤字的政见上，副总统也许是对的，但就经济而言，他错了。对于里根当政时期赤字的影响，他的看法是错误的，对于当前赤字的影响，他的看法也不对。
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Did
President Ronald Reagan really prove that deficits do not matter?
Dick Cheney, the vice-president, seems to think so; or at least
that is what Paul O'Neill, the former Treasury secretary, reports.
While the vice-president may be right on the politics of deficits,
he is wrong on the economics. He is wrong about the impact of the
Reagan deficits and he is wrong about the impact of deficits
today.
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选民可能对赤字不太关心，但他们应该在意。因为现在和将来预期的政府支出和借款，均事关利率。从1981至1992年，即里根和乔治•H•W•布什(George
H. W. Bush)当政期间，赤字平均相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的3.75%，政府开支占国内生产总值的22%，通货膨胀调整后的实际利率约为4%。上世纪90年代，政策的转变导致政府预算扭亏为盈，2000年盈余达到峰值，相当于国内生产总值的2%，同时政府开支占GDP的比例不足19%，实际利率也随之降至近2%。
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Voters
may not care about deficits, but they should. The reason is that
government spending and borrowing, both today and what is expected
in the future, matter for interest rates. During the Reagan and
George H.W. Bush administrations, from 1981 to 1992, the deficit
averaged 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product, government
expenditure ran at about 22 per cent of GDP and the
inflation-adjusted real interest rate was in the neighbourhood of
4 per cent. In the 1990s, changes in policy brought the budget
sintossurplus, peaking at 2 per cent of GDP in 2000, with
expenditure below 19 per cent of GDP. With that came real interest
rates closer to 2 per cent.
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通过降低政府支出，尤其是消除赤字，克林顿(Bill
Clinton)政府营造了利率下跌的经济环境。低利率会刺激投资，并扩大长期经济增长，这应该是每个人都会关心的。
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By
lowering government spending, and especially by eliminating
deficits, Bill Clinton's administration created an environment in
which interest rates fell. Low real interest rates spur investment
and increase long-term growth. Everyone should care about that.
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2001年，情况发生了变化。减税措施与经济低迷共同导致美国财政状况急剧恶化。目前赤字相当于国内生产总值的5%，而政府开支已接近上世纪80年代的水平。结果，美国政府债务猛增了约1万亿美元。
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In
2001 things changed. A combination of tax cuts and a sluggish
economy led to a swift deterioration in the US fiscal position.
The deficit now stands at 5 per cent of GDP. And expenditure is
now nearly at the levels of the 1980s. As a result US government
debt has risen by roughly ,000bn.
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从长远来看，局面更加糟糕。在未来75年中，政府短期负债的净现值将超过50万亿美元，为美国国内生产总值的5倍。政府短期负债的净现值是我们现在为偿付全部现有债务并弥补未来赤字所需筹措的资金。
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The
long-term picture is much worse. The net present value of the
unfunded liabilities over the next 75 years - the amount we would
need to have today to finance all the existing debt plus future
deficits - is more than ,000bn, five times US GDP.
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在未来政府短期负债中，大部分是社会保障和医疗项目开支，其次是减税和新处方药项目。有关这些项目的耗资估算与日俱增，但从何处筹集所需资金，却全无着落。
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The
bulk of unfunded future liabilities are in the form of Social
Security and Medicare programme expenses. Then there are the tax
cuts and the new prescription drug programme. Every day brings
larger estimates of how costly these are going to be, with no hint
as toswheresthe financing will come from.
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如果个人出现入不敷出的情况，他们可以借钱或卖东西来填补收支缺口；如果一个国家入不敷出，它还有第三种选择，那就是印钞票。印钞票会导致通货膨胀，谁都不希望出现这种局面，因而美联储不大可能考虑采用这样的策略。相反，美国正在采用借外债的方法。自布什政府实行减税措施以来，美国政府债务的增加额，几乎刚好相当于外国人对美债权净增加值的预测数字。
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An
individual living beyond his or her means can either borrow or
sell something to make up the difference between income and
consumption. A country has a third option, which is to print
money. No one wants the inflation that that would cause and the
Federal Reserve is very unlikely to accommodate such a strategy.
Instead, the US is borrowing from abroad. The increase in
government debt since the Bush tax cut almost exactly matches
estimates of the increase in net financial claims on the US held
by foreigners.
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美国对资本输入求之若渴，这与过去两年美元大幅贬值有关。外国投资者已开始对美国市场前景感到不安。迄今为止，我们看到全球各金融市场一直在慷慨地向美国提供所需资金，但很难相信他们还会继续这么做。
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The
nearly desperate need to import capital is connected to the
significant dollar depreciation over the past two years.
Foreigners are getting nervous about prospects in the US. It is
hard to believe that world financial markets are going to continue
supplying the funds needed at the generous rates we have seen up
to now.
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把美国同一个新兴市场国家进行比较最为恰当。该新兴国家必须让外国借款人相信，它的财政政策有着可持续的发展方向，否则，短期债务利率会上升到某个水平，令所有人都明白，偿债是不可能的，于是，利率会进一步上升，最终导致汇率体系崩溃。尽管美国遭遇这种灾难的可能性很小，但并非完全不可能。
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The
most apt comparison is with an emerging market country that must
convince foreign lenders that its fiscal policy is on a
sustainable path. Otherwise, interest rates on current debt rise
to levels that make it obvious to everyone that repayment is
impossible, interest rates rise even further and eventually the
exchange rate collapses. While the probability of such a calamity
afflicting the US may be small, it is not zero.
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决策者的工作就是要确保这种糟糕状况不会发生。决策者是我们的金融及经济体系的风险管理者。央行人士早已明白这点，并采取了相应措施。现在是财政决策者效仿的时候了。
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It
is the job of policymakers to make sure that such bad things do
not happen. They are the risk managers of our financial and
economic system. Central bankers have known this for a long time
and acted accordingly. It is time fiscal policymakers did the
same.
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布什政府似乎并不懂得它作为风险管理者应发挥的作用。昨天，布什总统接受了批评意见，在向国会递交的预算案中，提出一个针对长期债务问题的“解决方案”。该方案称，政府打算增加当前非国防项目的支出，提高对未来保健福利的承诺金额，并进一步削减税收。该方案或多或少会使未来5年内的赤字减少一半。但即便如此，也只是推迟了不得不解决根本问题的日子而已。
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The
Bush administration does not seem to understand its role as risk
manager. Bowing to criticism, the president yesterday, in the
budget he submitted to Congress, proposed a "solution"
to the long-term debt problem. It is to increase spending on
current non-defence programmes, increase promises of future
healthcare benefits and cut taxes even further. Somehow this will
all lead to a halving of the deficit in five years. Even if it
does, this just postpones the day of reckoning.
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提一个严肃的建议，怎样解决未来75年、而不光是未来5年的财政失衡问题？坦率承认长期问题的严重性或许要冒政治风险，但如果什么都不做，那样冒得风险会更大。
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How
about making a serious proposal to address the fiscal imbalance
for the next 75 years, not just for the next five? Being honest
about the size of the long-term problem may be politically risky,
but the risks of doing nothing are even bigger. The writer is
professor of international economics and finance at Brandeis
University
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作者是布兰代斯大学国际经济与金融学教授。
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译者/张征
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