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近几年来，亚洲公司在清理资产负债方面，总的来说干得不错。对亚洲的政府，我们却无法这么说。
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Asian companies
have done a good job, by and large, in cleaning up their balance
sheets in recent years. The same cannot be said of the region's
governments.
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在上次金融危机期间，这些政府承担了巨额公司债务。，在亚洲十大经济体中(除日本外)，政府债务占国内生产总值的平均比例猛增至60%。这是其中部分原因。
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Not least because
these governments picked up so many corporate liabilities during
the last financial crisis, the average ratio of public debt to
gross domestic product has grown rapidly to 60 per cent for
Asia's 10 major economies, ex-Japan.
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新加坡和菲律宾的比例都超过了100%，仅香港还有净准备金。与此同时，日本的比例高达引人注目的160%。而且这些数字还不包括或有债务，诸如清理国家银行体系的费用以及医疗和养老金体系拖欠的资金等。这些占国内生产总值的比重平均还要再增30%。
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Only Hong Kong has
net reserves, while the ratios for Singapore and the Philippines
are more than 100 per cent. Japan's, meanwhile, is at an
eye-watering 160 per cent. And these figures do not include
contingent liabilities, such as the costs of cleaning up
national banking systems and unfunded health and pension
systems, which could be a further 30 per cent of GDP on average.
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做个比较：1998年俄罗斯丧失清偿能力时，债务占国内生产总值的比例为51%；最近阿根廷和巴西出现经济崩溃时，比例分别为54%和42%。国际货币基金组织认为，新兴市场经济体不应让政府债务占国内生产总值的比例维持在25%至50%以上。
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For a comparison:
Russia defaulted in 1998 when its debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 51
per cent, while Argentina collapsed more recently at 54 per cent
and Brazil at 42 per cent. The International Monetary Fund
argues that emerging market economies should not try to sustain
public debt-to-GDP ratios of more than 25 to 50 per cent.
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政府债务的增长也未完全回落到1997至1998年的水平。这越来越应归咎于肆意挥霍的政府开支。亚洲经济体过去在财政方面是全世界最谨慎的，可现在平均预算赤字却接近国内生产总值的3%，而日本则超过6%。具有讽刺意味的是，根据马斯特里赫特条约的标准，仅少数国家仍有资格加入欧盟。
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Nor is the
increase in public borrowing solely down to the legacy of
1997/98. Profligate government spending is increasingly to
blame. Asia's economies, once the world's most fiscally
conservative, are now running budget deficits of nearly 3 per
cent of GDP on average, while Japan's is at more than 6 per
cent. It is ironic to note that only a handful would any longer
qualify for European Union entry under the Maastricht criteria.
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这种财政纪律的放松会导致另一场危机吗？幸运的是，亚洲拥有一些优势可以抵消其弱点。
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Could this decline
in fiscal rectitude lead to another crisis? Happily, Asia has
some strengths that balance its weaknesses.
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首先，该地区大多数债务是以本国货币计价，为国内投资者所有。换句话说，亚洲是自己借自己的钱。理论上，各国中央银行可以大量印钞，全部买下这些债务。
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First, most of the
region's debt is in domestic currencies, held by domestic
investors. In other words, Asia owes the money to itself and, in
theory, its national central banks could crank up their printing
presses insgroupsto buy up these liabilities.
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其次，亚洲本国货币的存量非常高。广义货币即M2占国内生产总值的比例，从香港的300%到其他大多数国家的100%，各不相同，但根据全球标准都是极高的水平。这意味着，如果政府债务确实不得不货币化，额外的货币在不引发恶性通胀的情况下，或许可以被吸收。
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Second, the stock
of domestic money in Asia is very high. Broad money or M2-to-GDP
ratios vary from nearly 300 per cent in Hong Kong to about 100
per cent for most of the others - enormous levels by global
standards. This means that if public debt did have to be
monetised, the additional currency could probably be absorbed
without triggering hyperinflation.
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部分由于货币存量偏高，这些国家的名义和实际利率都非常低，政府因而可以从容地偿还债务利息。
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Partly as a result
of the high monetary stock, both nominal and real interest rates
are very low, so governments can comfortably afford to pay the
interest on their borrowings.
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最后，该地区的货币汇率大多受到升值的压力，从而使得证券资金涌入，利率走低（因为投资者在赌博，希望从汇率上赚回收入上的损失）。
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Finally, the
region's exchange rates are mostly under pressure to appreciate,
which keeps portfolio inflows high (as investors gamble that
they can make up on the exchange rate what they lose in terms of
income) and thus rates low.
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然而，这些积极因素也许不会永远存在。例如，一旦美国紧缩货币政策，低利率将难以维持。而且，今年该地区多个国家要举行大选，预算赤字必定会广泛存在。
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But these positive
factors may not persist forever. Low rates, for example, will be
harder to maintain once the US tightens monetary policy. And in
a year of multiple elections around the region, budget deficits
will certainly remain wide.
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某些国家看上去风险更大些。瑞士联合银行整理出一个“脆弱指数”(vulnerability
index)，证明日本、印度、菲律宾和印度尼西亚尤其危险。如果算上或有债务以及日益增长的结构性赤字，中国、台湾和马来西亚也将榜上有名。这些都不意味着另一场亚洲金融危机迫在眉睫。但种子正在播下，危机迟早会触发。
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Certain countries
also look more exposed than others. UBS has put together a
"vulnerability index", which points to particular
danger in Japan, India, the Philippines and Indonesia. Throw in
contingent liabilities and rising structural deficits and China,
Taiwan and Malaysia creep on to the list. None of this means
another Asian financial crisis is imminent. But the seeds are
being sown - and sooner or later there will be a trigger.
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就政治改革而言，董建华上周发表的年度施政报告一如既往，乏善可陈。这位香港特首也没提出多少新的经济设想。他证实，经济正在复苏，长达5年的通货紧缩终于开始消退，尽管完全消失还要12到18个月的时间。
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Tung Chee-hwa's
annual policy address last week was the usual damp squib as far
as political reform is concerned. Nor did Hong Kong's chief
executive have many new thoughts to offer on the economy. Growth
was reviving, he confirmed, and after five years deflation was
finally on the way out - though it would take another 12 to 18
months to disappear completely.
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这一次，董先生或许太悲观了。如果看一下按年计的变化，最新数据表明，2003年11月消费价格指数仍在以2.4%的速度下滑。但按月计的数据则显示，去年8月，通货紧缩已触底。自那以来，消费价格指数一路上扬。
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For once, Mr Tung
may have been too pessimistic. If one looks at the year-on-year
change, the consumer price index is still showing a decline of
2.4 per cent for November 2003, the most recent figure. But
looking at the month-on-month numbers suggests that deflation
bottomed out last August. Since then, the CPI has been moving
steadily upwards.
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真实情况如何呢？通货紧缩的周期成分几乎肯定已经消失。自从去年夏天非典疫情消退以来，香港经济一直在快速复苏。较难衡量的是通货紧缩的结构性成分。香港与物价低廉的内地一体化加深，对其物价走低形成了强大的压力。
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Where does the
truth lie? The cyclical element of deflation is almost certainly
over. Hong Kong's economy has been recovering rapidly since the
Sars shock wore off last summer. Harder to gauge is the
structural component of deflation: the fact that closer
integration with the cheaper mainland places relentless downward
pressure on Hong Kong prices.
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不过，即使这些也已出现大幅调整。以房地产为例，新界的房价现在只有相邻的深圳的1.5到2倍。如果考虑到纽约房价比新泽西贵4倍，伦敦金融城写字楼的楼价是金丝雀码头的2倍，那么这似乎是可持续的溢价。
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Even here,
however, there has already been an enormous adjustment. Take
property. House prices in the New Territories are now only 1.5
to two times those in neighbouring Shenzhen. That looks like a
sustainable premium when one considers that New York is four
times more expensive than New Jersey and offices in the City of
London cost twice as much as those in Canary Wharf.
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董先生的政府需要操心的事还很多，但通货紧缩已不再是其中之一。
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Mr Tung's
government has plenty of things to worry about. But deflation is
no longer one of them.
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邓伯乐是《金融时报》亚洲新闻主编。
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Dan Bogler is the
FT's Asia news editor
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daniel.bogler@ft.com
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daniel.bogler@ft.com
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译者/安娜
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