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听一听纽约第五大道上购物者的口音，就可以切身感受到美元大幅贬值的影响：购买力大增的欧洲人，正蜂拥前来美国购物。
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Listen
carefully to the crowds shuffling down New York's fifth Avenue,
and the more immediate effects of the plummeting dollar are
obvious in the voices of European shoppers enjoying dramatic
increases in purchasing power.
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新年伊始，一对伦敦夫妇走进Saks百货商店，花了2.5万美元买了一条钻石项链，引起一场骚动。而一对俄罗斯夫妇由私人导购员带领，在自己酒店的房间里买下了价值1.4万美元的名牌服装，随后觉得用卢布换美元买裘皮实在划算，于是又回到店里花了1.4万美元购物。
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One
couple from London caused a new year stir at Saks department store
by walking in and spending ,000 on a single diamond necklace. A
Russian couple spent ,000 on designer clothes with a personal
shopper in their hotel room only to decide that you really can buy
a lot of fur for the rouble these days and returned to spend
another ,000 in the store.
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外汇市场动荡的真正迹象，当然不只体现在贵重项链和名牌店的购物袋上。美元贬值对美国零售商的积极影响，虽然对纽约这样的旅游城市很重要，但与广大美国消费者面临进口商品涨价的后果相比，就只是沧海一粟了。要找出货币贬值对美国经济带来的更深远的益处，就必须去看一些不那么富丽堂皇的地方。
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The
real signs of turmoil in the currency markets are not just worn
around the neck or carried away in expensive shopping bags. Though
significant for tourist destinations such as New York, any
positive impact on US retailers is a drop in the ocean compared
with the rising cost of imports for domestic consumers. For more
significant benefits to the US economy, you have to look in less
glamourous places.
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在印第安纳州和宾西法尼亚州的林区，胶合板的出口已经多年处于苟延残喘的困境，原因是美元坚挺以及海外低成本家具组装业的发展。可正是这些盈利不大的成熟工业，如家具、化学品、钢铁和塑料，最容易受到汇率变动的影响。美国出产的橡木和樱桃木胶合板，一度受到东欧及奥地利温带森林区同类产品的竞争。可以说，涨势迅猛的欧元，让许多美国生产商松了一口气。
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In
the forests of states such as Indiana and Pennsylvania, the export
of wood veneers for the furniture industry had been all but wiped
out by years of a strong dollar and the growth of low-cost
furniture assembly overseas. But mature, low-margin industries
such as furniture, chemicals, steel and plastics are also just the
sort of businesses most affected by positive exchange rate
movements. Competition for sought-after oak and cherry veneers
comes from temperate forests in eastern Europe and Austria, so the
soaring euro has come to the rescue for many US producers.
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就规模更大的业务而言，美国一些工业巨头如杜邦(DuPont)、3M、埃克森石油(Exxon)、
康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)和宝洁(Procter & Gamble)，也都各自在最近一次的季度盈利报表中，报告了美元贬值带来的有利影响。
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On
a larger scale, industrial giants such as DuPont, 3M, Exxon,
ConocoPhillips, and Procter & Gamble all reported a favourable
impact from the dollar in their last quarterly earnings
statements.
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美国公司下一次公布盈利报表时，逐渐复苏的盈利将使汇率变动带来的效益更为明显。2003年前九个月，埃克森石油公司化学品分部的利润提高了2.02亿美元，达到9.56亿美元，埃克森认为这是因为汇率变动十分有利。此后，欧元对美元的比价又上升了8%，日元对美元则上升了4.5%。
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Currency
gains are likely to play an even bigger role in the recovering
profits of corporate America during the next earnings season.
Exxon credited favourable foreign exchange effects in the first
nine months of 2003 for helping lift profits in its chemicals
division by m to m. Since then, the euro has risen eight
per cent and the yen is up by 4.5 per cent.
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由于美元疲软，第三季度美国有不少公司各分部的销售额都提高了2%至5%。杜邦公司就是其中之一。而美元的进一步贬值，有望使该公司实现全年扭亏为盈。
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DuPont
was also typical of companies reporting a lift of 2-5 per cent
lift in third-quarter sales across its divisions due to the weaker
dollar. Further falls should help tip the companysintos
profitability for the year.
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另一方面，与其他国家的实业公司相比，美国公司(因本国货币贬值)受到的不利影响相对有限，因为包括石油在内的不少进口原材料，也都是用美元计价的。
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The
usual drawbacks for industrial companies in other countries are
limited in the US because many imported raw materials, such as
oil, remain priced in dollars.
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当然，事物不会都那么简单。就拿美国的胶合板生产商来说，美元贬值同样有不利因素：它们的海外客户在返销家具成品至美国时，就会遇到汇率难题。更重要的是，与多数美国制造商一样，该行业的最大竞争威胁来自中国，而中国的货币汇率是盯住美元的。
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Not
everything is that simple. Wood veneer producers, for example,
suffer because their customers abroad have currency problems of
their own when trying to export finished furniture back to the US.
More important, like most US manufacturers, the industry's biggest
competitive threat lies in China, whose currency is pegged to the
dollar.
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可见，即使对于林业产品这样相对简单的行业而言，汇率动荡所产生的各种错综复杂的影响，也使近期美元贬值的总体走向难以预料。投资者往往对排除汇率影响的基础业绩更感兴趣，因此，3M这样的大型跨国公司在报表中按当地货币分列盈利数据，以期迎合分析师的怀疑眼光。
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The
complicated impact of currency movements, even in fairly simple
industries such as forestry products, makes it hard to predict
what the overall effect of recent movements will be. Investors are
often more interested in underlying performance, and big
multinationals such as 3M break out their earnings in local
currencies for the benefit of sceptical analysts.
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此外，经济学家们指出，近期美国出口增长的主要原因，是全球需求的回升，而不是美元贬值。2003年第三季度，美国出口增幅按年率计算高达9.4%。
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Economists
also argue that the main reason for the recent pick-up in exports
- which rose by an annualised 9.4 per cent in the third quarter of
2003 - has been a revival in global demand rather than a fall in
the dollar.
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根据摩根士丹利(Morgan
Stanley)的估算，就出口增长而言，全球需求的重要性比汇率变动大五倍。二十世纪九十年代后期，尽管面临美元升值带来的压力，美国工业还是实现了快速的出口增长。
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Morgan
Stanley estimates global demand is five times more important for
export growth than currency movements and US industry managed to
expand exports at a brisk pace during the late 1990s, despite a
strong headwind from the rising dollar.
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再者，出口也不是美国工业最主要关心的。以2003年第三季度为例，出口额在美国GDP中仅占9.4%。
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Nor
are exports the dominant concern for US industry - representing
9.4 per cent of GDP in the third quarter.
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话说回来，美元贬值肯定能为美国工业创造有利条件。美元升值时期，美国公司曾想尽一切办法削减成本，而现在它们终于有了一个令人羡慕的选择：要么减价以抢占市场份额，要么提高利润率。摩根士丹利研究美国经济的首席经济学家理查德•伯纳(Richard
Berner)估计，美国公司过去一年间实现的30%利润增长中，有三个百分点应归功于美元贬值。
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Nevertheless,
the fall in the dollar is certain to help.shavingstrimmed costs to
the bone during the ascent of the dollar, US companies now have an
enviable choice of cutting export prices in an effort to pick up
market share or fattening margins. Richard Berner, chief US
economist at Morgan Stanley, estimates that the fall in the dollar
added three percentage points to the 30 per cent rise US corporate
profits over the past year.
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据全美制造商协会
(National Association of Manufacturers)预计，至今年第四季度，美国工业出口有望实现12%的同比增长。同时，进口的下降也使其成员制造商得益，因为美元贬值使它们的海外竞争对手陷于不利境地。
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By
the fourth quarter of this year, the National Association of
Manufacturers expects exports should be up by 12 per cent on last
year, with its members also benefitting from declining imports as
competitors abroad struggle with the other side of the coin.
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译者/和风
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