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截至本周，欧洲经济和货币联盟就该5岁了，现在就要评论它的长期影响还为时尚早。但对那些正在探讨，是否也要建立它们自己的货币联盟的亚洲和其它地区的国家来说，欧元短短的历史已经向它们提供了一些早期的经验教训。
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Europe's
economic and monetary union is five years old this week, and it is too
soon to tell what its long-term impact is likely to be. But for those
countries, in Asia and elsewhere, discussing whether to set up their own
monetary union, the euro's short history has produced a few early lessons.
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第一，货币联盟主要是一个政治体，而非经济体。这是目前为止欧元给我们上的最重要的一课。每个成员国都会在某个时刻被要求做出政治牺牲。例如，成员国可能面临财政政策受约束的局面。欧元到底造成了哪些经济后果是很难证明的，如果这些后果当真存在的话。要是组建一个货币联盟仅仅是为了求得汇率的稳定，那显然是小题大做了。
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A
monetary union is primarily a political, and not an economic project. This
is the most important lesson from the euro so far. Each member country
will at some point be required to make political sacrifices. For example,
members might face constraints on their fiscal policy. The economic
consequences of the euro, if they exist at all, are far more difficult to
prove. If you merely want exchange rate stability, forming a monetary
union is definitely overkill.
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其次，以一个统一的内部市场为起点，随后再采用单一货币。当欧元被启动时，欧洲还远未达到单一市场的程度，但它至少覆盖了绝大多数的制造产品和众多的服务。如果不形成一个单一市场，货币联盟就很可能在成员国之间引发经济分歧。单一市场没有货币联盟可以照行不误，但货币联盟要是没有单一市场就会步入险境。欧洲人因为没有首先统一财政市场而犯下大错，由此造成的一个负面影响就是，货币政策决议竟以不同的速度传达到欧元区各个区域。
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Start off
with an internal market before adopting a single currency. Europe's single
market was far from complete when the euro was introduced, but at least it
covered the vast majority of manufactured goods and many services. Without
a single market, there is a greater risk that monetary union provokes
economic divergence among its members. A single market can go ahead
without a monetary union, but a monetary union without a single market
would be risky. The Europeans made the mistake of failing to integrate
financial markets first. One negative consequence is that monetary policy
decisions are transmitted to various parts of the eurozone at different
speeds.
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第三，要有一个时间表。不要完全依赖经济指标。如果你真的打算加入某一个货币联盟的话，就直说你想什么时候加入，然后努力达到符合成员资格的标准。要不是1999年的最后期限，欧洲人可能至今还在等着何时采用欧元。
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Have a
timetable. Do not just rely on economic criteria. If you really want to
take part in a monetary union, say when you want to do it, and then create
the necessary conditions for membership. Without their 1999 deadline, the
Europeans would still be waiting to adopt the euro today.
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货币联盟的成员资格只有一个必要标准，即通胀率的集中。其它财务指标，不管是债务还是赤字比率，都不是关键。不要理睬像经济增长、就业水平或是商业圈集中度这类所谓“真正”的标准，它们只有当你不想加入，需要找借口时才真正有用。英国自己为成员资格设定的5项测试就属于这种情况。如果你不希望某个国家成为货币联盟的一员，不妨直说，不用拿标准来遮遮掩掩。
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There is
only one necessary criterion for membership of a monetary union:
convergence of inflation rates. Other financial criteria - debt or deficit
ratios - are not critical for entry. Forget so-called "real"
criteria, such as economic growth, employment, or business-cycle
convergence. They are only useful if you need an excuse not to join. The
UK's self-imposed five tests for membership fallsintosthis category. If
you do not want a country to be part of your monetary union, say so
outright. Don't hide behind criteria.
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第四，采用一个过渡的货币体系。大多数的亚洲货币与美元挂钩，而一个大规模的货币联盟往往采用自由浮动的货币。
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Adopt an
intermediate currency regime. Most Asian currencies are pegged to the
dollar. The currency of a large monetary union would normally be
free-floating.
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当然，对亚洲来说，以现行的美元挂钩制作为将来决定换算率的基础也是有可能的。但作为一个过渡阶段，汇率机制有这样一些优点：汇率在被永久固定之前可以得到检验，而且各国央行在过渡期间能够更紧密地合作。不要小看这种“软性”的组织因素和人为因素，正是它们为一个成功的货币联盟奠定了基础。
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Of
course, in the case of Asia, it might be possible to use the existing
dollar pegs as the basis for determining future conversion rates. But as
an interim step an exchange rate mechanism has some advantages: exchange
rates can be tested before they are permanently fixed, and national
central banks co-operate more closely during the interim period. One
should not neglect such "soft" institutional and human factors,
which underpin a successful monetary union.
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第五，不要让央行过于独立。这是欧洲人做错的一点。欧洲中央银行(European
Central Bank)不仅能够独立地制定货币政策，而且还能自己选择目标。如果财政部长有权设定通胀目标而让欧洲央行来执行的话，欧洲可能就不会有那么多麻烦了。
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Do not
give excessive independence to the central bank. This is one of the
elements that the Europeans got wrong. The European Central Bank is not
only independent in the conduct of monetary policy but it can also choose
its own targets. The Europeans would have saved themselves a lot of
trouble if the finance ministers had been empowered to set a symmetric
inflation target for the ECB to implement.
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第六，不要理睬稳定公约，而把精力集中到包括养老金在内的公共财政的长期稳定上。稳定是个复杂的议题，不可能被简化到诸如赤字率这样一个数字。不要羞于使用定性指标，即便它们执行起来不那么容易。但一个基本正确的软性准则总比一个没有经济意义的硬性规定来的强。要注意，政策协调是一个货币联盟能否运转的关键。每个成员都必须认同这一点，即经济政策所涉及的各个方面，从支出、税收直到对财政、产品和劳务市场的规定，都是大家共同关心的事项。
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Forget
about a stability pact and focus instead on the long-term sustainability
of public finances, including pensions. Sustainability is a complex issue
that cannot be reduced to a single number, such as a deficit ratio. Do not
shy away from using qualitative criteria, even if they are not that easy
to implement. It is better to have a soft rule that is roughly right than
a hard rule that makes no economic sense. Be aware that policy
co-ordination is an essential ingredient for a monetary union to work.
Every member should accept that all aspects of economic policy - from
expenditure and taxation to the regulation of financial, product and
labour markets - are matters of common concern.
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当然，欧洲货币联盟的问题并不全都适用于其它地区。但如果那些热心建立下一个货币联盟的人忽视欧洲早期的教训的话，则必然危机四伏。
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Of
course, not all of Europe's problems with its monetary union apply to
others. But those keen to set up the next monetary union ignore Emu's
early lessons at their peril.
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译者/方志燕
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