亚洲开发银行首席经济学家Ifzal Ali演讲

　　亚洲开发银行首席经济学家Ifzal Ali演讲纲要

　　--亚洲开发银行采取一系列措施帮助发展中的会员国家对抗SARS

　　1. SARS造成的心里影响

　　关于SARS造成的伤亡信息被媒体广为报道;而对SARS的治疗和控制进展信息则相对不易获得，导致百姓对SARS产生过度恐惧。

　　2. SARS对东亚和东南亚经济的短期影响

　　SARS可以通过对需求和供给等渠道影响经济

　　估计和预测SARS给GDP和财政带来的损失

　　SARS对不同行业的影响

　　3. SARS相关的政策措施和反应

　　及时、透明地传达SARS有关信息至关重要

　　政府应与医疗专业人士紧密配合,了解疫情的风险、传播和防治知识。

　　早发现、早行动十分关键采用手段刺激经济,减少疫情带来的财政压力

　　发展防传染病长期战略,建设充足的配套医疗设施,有效预防、报告、监控和控制传染病的爆发。

　　英文演讲稿

　　Honorable General Secretary of the Boao Forum Mr. Long Yongtu, distinguished participants, ladies and gentlemen,

　　The recent outbreak of SARS has dimmed short-term growth prospects in Asia. A number of the Asian Development Bank's developing member countries in East and Southeast Asian economies, including Hong Kong, China, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Singapore, Taipei,China, and Vietnam have been put under considerable strain. The epidemic has also affected other economies, although to a lesser extent. The short-term turbulence caused by SARS has to be considered in the context of sound economic fundamentals that currently exist in many developing economies of Asia.

　　Positive developments and improved public health measures in recent weeks have added weight to arguments that SARS, although serious, will cause only a temporary shock to economic growth. This has given rise to cautious optimism. However, the implications stemming from SARS extend beyond the short-term horizon if short-term challenges are to be transformed to medium- and long-term opportunities.

　　In my presentation, I will first raise the issue of why the psychological impact of SARS has been so pronounced. Then, I will briefly assess the short-term economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies. Lastly, I will provide some suggestions on how governments in Asia could deal with unexpected shocks related to the outbreak of contagious diseases.

　　I. The Pronounced Psychological Impact of SARS

　　Clearly, SARS poses significant medical risks. However, it has created a disproportionately large psychological impact on people in relation to its relatively low morbidity and mortality. Among the reported SARS cases, the mortality rate has been 7 percent and the recovery rate is 43 percent. The pronounced psychological impact of SARS can be attributed to a combination of two aspects of information about the illness. First, there has been the almost costless and rapid transmission of information about SARS as a result of modern media and communication technologies. Second, in comparison, there is a lack of sufficient medical information on SARS.

　　Information on the casualties caused by SARS is freely available and tends to dominate the media. In contrast, information on progress already made in some countries in controlling SARS and the fact that the risks posed by SARS is much smaller than other risks faced everyday do not get as much coverage. This naturally leads to an exaggerated perception about the danger of the disease. Consequently, there has been heightened uncertainty and perhaps a degree of overreaction in some cases. It is the uncertainty and the subsequent fear associated with SARS that is impacting negatively on some Asian economies.

　　II. The short-term economic impact of SARS

　　Experience in a few SARS affected countries shows that there are a number of channels by which the SARS outbreak could affect an economy. The most immediate channel is through the demand-side. In the short run, economic consequences arise almost entirely from public perceptions and fears of the disease. First, in locations with a high incidence of SARS, the movement of people is restricted, either voluntarily or involuntarily, thus reducing consumer spending. Second, the tourism-related service sectors, including airlines, hotels, entertainment, retail and restaurant business, are particularly affected. Third, if the outbreak persists, exports will also be affected as trade fairs and business travel are cancelled and demand for goods from affected areas fall. Fourth, although investments tend to be more resilient than consumption during the initial stages of the scare, the persistence of the outbreak could dampen investor confidence resulting in weaker investment and inflows of foreign capital.

　　Another channel is through supply shocks. If the outbreak cannot be effectively contained, the work force will be reduced because of illness or precautionary measures to prevent the spread of SARS, thereby disrupting business operations and production. This could affect both the services sectors and manufacturing. Delays in international shipments of inputs and final goods may also be experienced as cross-border trade is hampered, aggravating the supply-side shocks. This last aspect indicates possible regional impact of SARS given the growing interdependence of this region.

　　In our recently released Asian Development Outlook 2003, we have provided a preliminary assessment of economic impacts of SARS, drawing on the different possible channels of effect that I just mentioned. The ADO projections assumed that the most intensive impact would be confined within 2 months. Surely, the effective implementation of containment measures against SARS in a number of economies over the last few weeks such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Viet Nam and Guangdong Province of PRC lends support to this perspective.

　　Nonetheless, significant uncertainties still surround the development and nature of SARS, and they complicate the impact assessment. To address this, we have provided assessments under two scenarios. A first scenario assumes that SARS will not have any further serious impact beyond the second quarter of 2003. The other scenario is that the major impact will runsintosthird quarter of 2003. Obviously, any scenario design will involve a degree of arbitrariness and judgment. The results are thus indicative rather than definitive.

　　Our simulations show that under the first "one quarter only" assumption, GDP growth in East and Southeast Asian economies is likely to be reduced by about 0.2-1.8 percentage points in 2003. The economies of Hong Kong and Singapore would be hit hard with GDP growth reduced by 1.8 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. In PRC and Korea, on the other hand, the impact is a GDP decline of about 0.2 percentage point. If the impact of SARS extendssintosthe third quarter of 2003, GDP growth is likely to be reduced by 0.5 percentage point in PRC and 4.0 percentage points in Hong Kong, China. The detailed projection results are reported in hard copy circulated to conference participants.

　　The estimated income loss ranges from US.0 billion to US.7 billion for East and Southeast Asia under the two scenarios. Of key concern is that SARS will intensify the hardships borne by the poorest and most vulnerable groups in society. This will present further challenges to the poverty reduction efforts of governments

　　The impact of SARS is felt disproportionately by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers employed in SMEs. In many countries, SMEs are an important source of employment for the poor. The agriculture sector could also be severely affected by SARS. It would be considerably more difficult to control since the rural health systems are inadequately equipped for surveillance, prevention, and treatment. The economic impact on the rural population could be significant.

　　Furthermore, the fight against SARS also present challenges to many governments themselves, in terms of their administrative capacity in handling the crisis, and more importantly in terms of the general public's confidence. Finally, SARS presents challenge for regional cooperation. In this respect, it is important that governments of PRC and ASEAN countries by convening a leaders' meeting in Bangkok demonstrated a proactive and collective effort in strengthening regional cooperation to combat SARS. Additional cooperation efforts will be required.

　　III. Policy Implications and Responses to SARS

　　I understand the Chinese word of "challenge" means both danger and opportunity. The SARS outbreak provides significant opportunity for us to learn and accordingly act in the future. Perhaps the most significant lesson is the crucial role of a government. This can be seen in the following aspects. First, the accurate, timely, and transparent provision of information on the nature and extent of SARS is critical for containing the epidemic and reducing and public fears and uncertainty. Information has the characteristic of a public good, which calls for the active involvement of government in its provision. Governments need to work closely with medical professionals to generate and disseminate accurate information about the risks and extent of a disease, and preventative measures available. Given the highly developed networks of communication such as internet, any apparent lack of transparency in information provision is likely to cause second-guessing and panic among the general public. Governments need to be much more proactive in making effective use of the influence and reach of the modern media to disseminate information so as to keep the general public fully informed and to foster sensible actions.

　　Second, epidemics such as SARS have distinct externalities. People infected with the virus may not seek medical care quickly enough to avoid spreading the disease. With the increased mobility of people, and the significant flow of goods and services, the disease also can be transmitted quickly on a large scale. The success story of Viet Nam in controlling the spread of the disease demonstrates that early decisive policy response and actions are critical; any delays will create greater costs later on. With uncertainties on the state of knowledge of SARS, aggressive public health responses would also need to be combined with a rational evaluation of risks so as to minimize any undue disruption to people's lives.

　　The occurrence of sudden, unexpected shocks like SARS also provides another important lesson on prudent budget management. Addressing the outbreak and its aftermath will call for increasing public spending, while the likely slowdown of economic activities could reduce government revenue. They together will worsen government fiscal positions. At times, active stimulus packages may also be needed to strengthen economic activities. Therefore, the possibility of future episodes like SARS underlines the need for governments to implement prudent fiscal policies, to accumulate primary surpluses, and to set aside appropriate amount of annual budget for unexpected contingencies.

　　Finally, governments will need to actively engage itself in formulating long-term strategies and developing corresponding institutional capacities to deal with contagious diseases. SARS is not the first outbreak of contagious disease in the modern era. One can be certain that it will not be the last either. The rise of drug-resistant microbes and global resurgence of previously controlled diseases such as tuberculosis means that effective provision of public health services is more important than ever.

　　The relatively effective containment of SARS in Hong Kong, China and Singapore shows that the capacity of the health system is critical in reducing the duration of diseases such as SARS. In addition to improving the health system itself, two aspects are particularly relevant. First, sufficient and suitably targeted public spending to generate research that ensures effective diagnosis and treatment of diseases are imperative. Public funding devoted to forward-looking research on contagious and communicable diseases is essential. Fiscal priorities should be shifted so that more funds are allocated to the health sector, particularly in the rural areas. Second, given the global implications of contagious diseases, governments need to intensify cooperation and coordination. As well as coming up with common responses to diseases that have already struck such as SARS, there is a particular need for developed countries and more advanced developing member countries to devote funds towards undertaking collaborative anticipatory or proactive research on combating such diseases. Much effort is also needed to develop effective policy measures and institutional capacity for preventing, reporting, monitoring, and containing all contagious diseases. Countries also need to commit to collaborative schemes to develop effective policy frameworks and institutional capacity for preventing, reporting, monitoring, and containing all contagious diseases.

　　Given the significant externality associated with the contagious disease and the public good nature of the knowledge and information about the disease and its treatment, governments would need to work together and direct attention towards broad issues including:

　　·how to minimize the occurrence of contagious diseases;·how governments can best respond to such emergency situations;·how health systems can be strengthened to cope with such situations; and·how international cooperation can most effectively be carried out.

　　IV. Conclusion

　　I would like to emphasize that over the past two decades, developing Asia has been characterized by pragmatic policy responses to emerging domestic and external challenges. Learning from a pool of cross cutting experiences, it has managed short-term turbulence in a manner that paves the road to medium- and long-term prosperity. Asia now faces the challenge posed by the short-term turbulence caused by the SARS epidemic and actions taken now individually and collectively will determine whether Asia will once again transform the challenge of todaysintosthe opportunities of tomorrow.

　　I am confident that the lessons learnt from the SARS epidemic will lead to appropriate policy responses in the developing countries of Asia. These will contain the disease in the short-term, initiate improvements in the public health system that will benefit populations in the medium-term, and systematically improve the quality of health research and health care that will have major positive impact over the long-term. Together, they will strengthen the platform for Asia's continued drive to economic dynamism.

　　I would like to conclude my speech by bringing out one message. The outbreak of SARS is causing serious disruption to near-term economic growth in region, but its policy implication is long term and should go farsintosfuture. Principally, the implication is the role of a government cannot be more significant, in respect to information provision and with regard to developing an effective public health system for disease prevention and control. And the government has to act on this role most proactively and accountably. Long-term economic growth depends on a healthy labor force, and the goals of development include a healthy and wealthy nation

　　Thank you.