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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场继续呈现底部震荡走势，在周一周二连续探底后周三出现大涨，但随即再度滑落至1300点以下。蓝筹股的表现不一，几大蓝筹股中仅航空板块表现出较强的持续性。从上周基金的操作来看，基金仍然保持着谨慎态度，仓位总体变化不大，但在各基金之间略有分化。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.78%，比前周的62.26%略降0.48%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为66.16，比前周的65.55%回升了0.56%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，基金之间的操作略有分化，仓位略增和仓位略减的基金大约各占一半，但总体仓位变动幅度都比较小。增仓幅度较明显的是融通成长，仓位由前周的47.53%上升至52.49%；同样是仓位较轻的基金，中融行业基金仓位则从前周的56.40%下降至50.48%。结合近一段时间基金仓位的上下震荡以及不时出现的结构调整迹象，似乎可以判断部分基金进行着高抛低吸的短波段操作。
从上周市场情况来看，在9.14以后的单边调整突破1300点并呈加速探底走势后，1300点的底部效应重又显现，周三市场再度出现大幅普涨的强劲反弹。但与9.14不同的是此次反弹并无明显的政策面或消息面刺激，因此很快归于平淡。而在相应时间内基金仓位变动并不大，因此基金主动护盘的可能性较小。这一上一下再次显示出目前市场的总体格局，向下空间有限，向上动力不足。这也反映在基金的操作上，年底操作总体较为平淡。市场持续在底部区域宽幅震荡给予了基金充分的持仓结构调整时间，但基金仍然以波段操作为主，表明对未来的调整方向仍未十分明确。首先是着眼于明年的投资策略，板块效应的削弱使得投资主题仍然较为模糊。其次明年新股询价制度实行等一系列制度性变化也将使市场面临价值重估。随着一批大型公司的上市，市场估值水平将面临新一轮的结构性调整，基金持仓也存在着进一步调整的压力，由此导致观望态度浓厚。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
融通成长 |
52.49% |
47.53% |
4.96% |
5.02% |
增持迹象 |
鹏华成长 |
64.86% |
61.22% |
3.64% |
3.69% |
仓位稳定 |
普天收益 |
73.44% |
69.98% |
3.46% |
3.50% |
易方达平稳 |
66.56% |
63.47% |
3.10% |
3.15% |
合丰周期 |
69.80% |
66.80% |
3.00% |
3.04% |
宝康消费 |
64.57% |
61.59% |
2.99% |
3.04% |
大成稳健 |
63.90% |
61.03% |
2.87% |
2.92% |
华安创新 |
70.39% |
67.64% |
2.75% |
2.80% |
融通新蓝筹 |
65.76% |
63.05% |
2.71% |
2.76% |
长盛成长 |
64.98% |
62.32% |
2.66% |
2.71% |
易方达策略 |
78.15% |
75.62% |
2.53% |
2.57% |
大成价值 |
64.65% |
62.16% |
2.49% |
2.54% |
嘉实增长 |
63.46% |
61.06% |
2.41% |
2.46% |
华夏成长 |
68.24% |
65.87% |
2.37% |
2.42% |
荷银精选 |
62.83% |
60.60% |
2.23% |
2.28% |
招商股票 |
67.74% |
65.62% |
2.12% |
2.16% |
博时裕富 |
73.42% |
71.35% |
2.08% |
2.12% |
德盛稳健 |
64.20% |
62.18% |
2.02% |
2.07% |
天同 180 |
78.58% |
76.83% |
1.75% |
1.79% |
宝盈鸿利 |
66.08% |
64.37% |
1.71% |
1.76% |
巨田基础 |
68.39% |
66.78% |
1.60% |
1.65% |
国泰金鹰 |
65.75% |
64.23% |
1.52% |
1.57% |
广发聚富 |
71.03% |
69.72% |
1.32% |
1.36% |
合丰成长 |
72.48% |
71.25% |
1.23% |
1.28% |
融通 100 |
73.66% |
72.46% |
1.20% |
1.24% |
银河理财 |
56.30% |
55.36% |
0.94% |
1.00% |
长城久泰 |
73.27% |
72.37% |
0.90% |
0.94% |
博时价值 |
75.34% |
74.61% |
0.73% |
0.77% |
易方达 50 |
75.04% |
74.40% |
0.64% |
0.69% |
银华优势 |
70.50% |
69.87% |
0.63% |
0.67% |
金鹰优选 |
77.32% |
76.72% |
0.60% |
0.64% |
嘉实稳健 |
65.69% |
65.35% |
0.34% |
0.39% |
富国动态 |
58.27% |
57.97% |
0.29% |
0.35% |
诺安平衡 |
62.01% |
62.05% |
-0.04% |
0.01% |
长盛动态 |
53.08% |
53.15% |
-0.07% |
-0.01% |
华夏回报 |
56.39% |
56.53% |
-0.15% |
-0.09% |
华安 180 |
74.04% |
74.60% |
-0.56% |
-0.52% |
嘉实服务 |
53.39% |
54.32% |
-0.94% |
-0.88% |
金鹰精选 |
65.74% |
66.86% |
-1.12% |
-1.07% |
宝康灵活 |
55.36% |
56.50% |
-1.13% |
-1.08% |
招商平衡 |
46.45% |
47.64% |
-1.19% |
-1.13% |
德盛精选 |
53.84% |
55.44% |
-1.60% |
-1.55% |
鹏华 50 |
63.74% |
65.35% |
-1.61% |
-1.56% |
合丰稳定 |
67.10% |
68.71% |
-1.61% |
-1.56% |
嘉实成长 |
66.25% |
67.88% |
-1.63% |
-1.59% |
博时精选 |
66.31% |
67.97% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
国泰精选 |
63.60% |
65.26% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
海富通收益 |
48.65% |
50.48% |
-1.83% |
-1.78% |
天治增长 |
63.50% |
65.64% |
-2.14% |
-2.09% |
景顺平衡 |
49.82% |
52.13% |
-2.31% |
-2.26% |
招商先锋 |
62.99% |
65.36% |
-2.36% |
-2.31% |
南方稳健 |
64.02% |
66.52% |
-2.50% |
-2.45% |
华宝策略 |
62.00% |
64.53% |
-2.53% |
-2.48% |
长城久恒 |
65.34% |
67.98% |
-2.63% |
-2.58% |
银河稳健 |
64.94% |
67.58% |
-2.64% |
-2.59% |
富国价值 |
69.48% |
72.16% |
-2.69% |
-2.64% |
海富通精选 |
66.04% |
68.76% |
-2.72% |
-2.67% |
景顺股票 |
65.76% |
68.52% |
-2.76% |
-2.71% |
融通行业 |
65.85% |
68.72% |
-2.87% |
-2.82% |
景顺内需 |
61.59% |
64.59% |
-3.00% |
-2.95% |
国泰稳健 |
63.16% |
66.81% |
-3.65% |
-3.60% |
申万精选 |
49.64% |
54.21% |
-4.58% |
-4.52% |
泰信策略 |
66.33% |
71.03% |
-4.71% |
-4.66% |
中融行业 |
50.48% |
56.40% |
-5.92% |
-5.86% |
减持迹象 |
加权平均 |
61.78% |
62.26% |
-0.48% |
-0.44% |
仓位稳定 |
*上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-24 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金兴业 |
67.43% |
62.57% |
4.86% |
4.91% |
仓位稳定 |
基金金鼎 |
69.53% |
65.35% |
4.19% |
4.23% |
基金裕泽 |
67.35% |
63.46% |
3.89% |
3.94% |
基金天华 |
65.23% |
62.35% |
2.89% |
2.94% |
基金安瑞 |
67.52% |
65.20% |
2.32% |
2.37% |
基金景业 |
65.31% |
63.10% |
2.21% |
2.26% |
基金裕隆 |
68.65% |
66.55% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
基金通乾 |
69.77% |
67.66% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
基金兴安 |
58.66% |
56.57% |
2.09% |
2.14% |
基金金泰 |
65.32% |
63.25% |
2.08% |
2.13% |
基金裕阳 |
68.66% |
66.59% |
2.07% |
2.12% |
基金科翔 |
68.67% |
66.69% |
1.98% |
2.03% |
基金景博 |
65.47% |
63.55% |
1.93% |
1.98% |
基金安信 |
67.57% |
65.65% |
1.91% |
1.96% |
基金金盛 |
67.57% |
65.68% |
1.89% |
1.94% |
基金久嘉 |
67.57% |
65.69% |
1.88% |
1.93% |
基金银丰 |
66.47% |
64.68% |
1.79% |
1.84% |
基金普惠 |
66.53% |
65.32% |
1.21% |
1.26% |
基金汉盛 |
69.87% |
68.69% |
1.18% |
1.23% |
基金天元 |
65.70% |
64.57% |
1.13% |
1.18% |
基金安顺 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.16% |
基金普丰 |
65.43% |
64.35% |
1.09% |
1.14% |
基金通宝 |
67.66% |
66.57% |
1.09% |
1.14% |
基金普华 |
65.44% |
64.35% |
1.08% |
1.13% |
基金兴和 |
63.22% |
62.20% |
1.02% |
1.07% |
基金普润 |
65.45% |
64.55% |
0.91% |
0.96% |
基金丰和 |
67.68% |
66.79% |
0.89% |
0.94% |
基金景阳 |
66.58% |
65.77% |
0.81% |
0.86% |
基金景福 |
64.22% |
63.42% |
0.80% |
0.85% |
基金科讯 |
67.57% |
66.88% |
0.69% |
0.74% |
基金泰和 |
64.43% |
64.35% |
0.09% |
0.14% |
基金开元 |
65.55% |
65.46% |
0.09% |
0.14% |
基金裕华 |
72.11% |
72.21% |
-0.10% |
-0.06% |
基金景宏 |
70.02% |
70.20% |
-0.18% |
-0.14% |
基金安久 |
64.47% |
64.69% |
-0.22% |
-0.17% |
基金科瑞 |
65.62% |
66.25% |
-0.62% |
-0.57% |
基金同智 |
65.63% |
66.26% |
-0.63% |
-0.58% |
基金同盛 |
64.69% |
65.47% |
-0.78% |
-0.73% |
基金科汇 |
67.87% |
68.70% |
-0.83% |
-0.79% |
基金同益 |
62.32% |
63.21% |
-0.89% |
-0.84% |
基金同德 |
70.10% |
71.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.88% |
基金隆元 |
67.89% |
68.88% |
-0.99% |
-0.94% |
基金汉兴 |
63.45% |
64.54% |
-1.09% |
-1.04% |
基金金鑫 |
65.68% |
66.77% |
-1.09% |
-1.04% |
基金鸿飞 |
68.79% |
69.88% |
-1.09% |
-1.05% |
基金兴科 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-1.14% |
基金裕元 |
66.86% |
68.57% |
-1.72% |
-1.67% |
基金金元 |
66.87% |
68.68% |
-1.81% |
-1.76% |
基金兴华 |
64.65% |
66.55% |
-1.89% |
-1.84% |
基金汉博 |
63.55% |
65.46% |
-1.91% |
-1.86% |
基金融鑫 |
65.77% |
67.75% |
-1.97% |
-1.93% |
基金久富 |
64.67% |
66.69% |
-2.02% |
-1.97% |
基金汉鼎 |
65.79% |
67.95% |
-2.15% |
-2.10% |
基金鸿阳 |
65.87% |
68.70% |
-2.83% |
-2.79% |
加权平均 |
66.16% |
65.60% |
0.56% |
0.61% |
仓位稳定 |
*封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-24 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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